"How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?" Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kimm, BAMS, March 2008, p. 303-311 (American Meteorological Society)
CONCLUSION. Using a composite measure of model performance, we objectively determined the ability of three generations of models to simulate present-day mean climate. Current models are certainly not perfect, but we found that they are much more realistic than their predecessors. This is mostly related to the enormous progress in model development that took place over the last decade, which is partly due to more sophisticated model parameterizations, but also to the general increase in computational resources, which allows for more thorough model testing and higher model resolution. Most of the current models not only perform better, they are also no longer flux corrected. Both improved performance and more physical formulation suggest that an increasing level of confidence can be placed in model-based predictions of climate. This, however, is only true to the extent that the performance of a model in simulating present mean climate is related to the ability to make reliable forecasts of long-term trends. It is hoped that these advancements will enhance the public credibility of model predictions and help to justify the development of even better models.