Saturday, September 19, 2015

Cyclonic Energy at Record High

August had the highest global ACE value -- Accumulated Cyclone Energy -- of any August since records began in 1970. [data]

It's not a perfect metric of cyclonic energy -- it doesn't include a storm's size, for example, as I wrote about here and here-- but it does seem the most popular and the most published.


Of course, August also saw the highest sea-surface temperatures according to HadSST3 data (since 1850) and NOAA data (since 1880). Just a coincidence I'm sure.

4 comments:

Unknown said...

David -- looking at just one month is silly. In fact, ACE has been extraordinarily low for each of the years 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. See http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl

Each of these 4 years had an ACE much lower than any year from 1970 - 2011.
Cheers
David in Cal

David Appell said...

The total ACE for 2012 (743) was higher than the average annual ACE for 1970-2011 (734).

This year's Jan-August ACE (661) is well ahead of the Jan-Aug 1970-2011 average of 410.

Year-to-date global ACE is 146% of normal, as of today:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

Unknown said...

David, as you point out, Weatherbell says the 2014 global ACE was 700 and 2015 TYD is 766. OTOH my source, Weather Underground says the 2014 global ACE was about 215 and 2015 Global ACE was 250. I have no idea of how to reconcile these differences. Do you?

Cheers
David in Cal

David Appell said...

David: If you want to reconcile the numbers, you should write to the people who calculate them. Request their raw data. Compare it to known storms. Then calculate for yourself. Because that's all I could do.

And you could cite the sources for the numbers you claim.