tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post6156441130014198658..comments2024-03-19T07:10:27.303-07:00Comments on Quark Soup by David Appell: New Ocean Heat Data Shows Global Warming is AcceleratingDavid Appellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-83576034760354100382015-08-27T19:34:12.725-07:002015-08-27T19:34:12.725-07:00Jim: How does one do a regression analysis while f...Jim: How does one do a regression analysis while forcing the linear term (x^1) to be zero?David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-79373432053867069952015-08-25T08:00:51.296-07:002015-08-25T08:00:51.296-07:00Agree with Victor. That's a very marginal inc...Agree with Victor. That's a very marginal increase in R^2 but with one more parameter, and with n ~ 45 or so. I doubt that AIC or BIC analysis would return the 2nd order poly as the best model. You could try eliminating the x^1 term from it and then it might.<br /><br />Jim Bouldinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10062200124702011010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-11309546546170269402015-08-25T02:23:55.801-07:002015-08-25T02:23:55.801-07:00Part of the apparent acceleration is probably caus...Part of the apparent acceleration is probably caused by geographical coverage deficiencies in the Argo network producing variable biases depending on spatial warming patterns. Similar to how Cowtan & Way diverges strongly from HadCRUT4 between 2005 and 2012, but the divergence has closed in the past couple of years.<br /><br />As noted by <a href="http://www.ocean-sci.net/10/547/2014/os-10-547-2014.html" rel="nofollow">von Schuckmann et al. 2014</a> the coverage gap around Indonesia means an area of strong ocean warming between 2005 and 2012 was not recorded. Thereafter variability has flipped and there has been stronger warming elsewhere.<br /><br />Dramatic sea ice losses between 2005 and 2012 indicate a sustained increased heat flux into the Arctic, which has since subsided. The Arctic is also not covered by Argo.PaulShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01643816417186967638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-41159153923048630202015-08-24T09:04:11.381-07:002015-08-24T09:04:11.381-07:00Well, let's wait for the article. ;-)
Not so...Well, let's wait for the article. ;-) <br /><br />Not so sure if the improvement in the fit justifies the more complicated quadratic statistical model. And then you should still study whether trends caused by measurement errors are sufficiently small; just statistics is not enough.Victor Venemahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02842816166712285801noreply@blogger.com