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Thursday, February 24, 2022

Ukraine Abstractions End in a Split Second

This morning I heard an NPR host--don't know if he was national or local--summarizing their upcoming news, call Russian's invasion of Ukraine the "largest rearrangement of geopolitics since the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979." That seemed awfully convenient and narrow-sighted. What about the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan? The U.S. invasion of Iraq?

It's amazing how abstract all this seems until you see something like this:
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13 comments:

  1. Thomas10:59 PM

    In the best of worlds USA would now realize the value of international laws, but I'm not holding my breath. American exceptionalism is strong, and Biden seems totally oblivious to the hypocricy of many of his statements given that he voted for the invasion of Iraq. That USA still has forces in Syria etc.

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  2. Entropic man5:11 AM

    Russia now controls 1/8 of the world's grain supply, grown in the Ukraine. Last time they stopped exporting in 2010 food riots caused the collapse of the Egyptian government and the Arab Spring.

    They also control much of Europe's oil and gas supply. The trouble with addiction is that you end up controlled by your supplier.



    As

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  3. Thomas5:53 AM

    Wheat has risen from 500 USd/Bu two years ago to a spike over 900 USd yesterday. That's going to hurt a lot of countries.
    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat

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  4. David Appell2:41 PM

    Here's the spike in the price of wheat. (I don't know the unit there.)

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price

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  5. David Appell2:47 PM

    Units on the wheat price are euros per metric ton.

    280 E/t = $8.60/bu

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  6. David Appell2:48 PM

    Thomas, I think you mean 900 cents/Bu, not 900 USd/bu.

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  7. David Appell2:53 PM

    EM, remember what caused Russia to stop shipping grain abroad? That massive heat wave in Moscow that, together with bad air from pollution and smoke, killed about 10,000 people.

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  8. Entropic man1:48 AM

    David Appell

    Which makes grain supply a matter of national security in a climate changing world.

    Give the Russians credit for thinking strategically. Add control of grain supplies and control of oil and gas pipelines to their reasons for reconquering Ukraine, not just the NATO issue.

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  9. pete3:55 PM

    I think Iraq was a mistake (even back then) but I can see some differences. The invasion overthrew a long-lived and terrible dictator. The US was not interested in colonialism, adding Iraq to its assets, but wanted to set up a democracy. I don’t think it’s the same as Russia overrunning its neighbor to install a puppet regime. Just like they are doing now (to an actual democracy). I thought Iraq was a mistake, though. The evidence of their involvement in 911 just wasn’t there. I remember a long article (by Powell?) - I read it twice and the justification just wasn’t there.

    Afghanistan less of a mistake. It was a hotbed of terrorism and Bin Laden was there. But, like with the Soviets, the Taliban wasn’t going anywhere. I think it’s impossible to change that. country short of massive civilian deaths. So I see the invasion as a mistake, but it bought some time on the terrorism.

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  10. David Appell5:22 PM

    pete, you're right. Biggest problem is that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, but we invaded them anyway just to get rid of Hussein, killing 100,000 to 1,000,000 people in the process

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

    and establishing 18 military bases there to, presumably, keep their oil flowing.

    Is that any better than what Putin is doing? Is there any possible way to do that calculation?

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  11. pete8:50 AM

    Yes, I remember the “optimism” when Iraq’s oil was up for grabs, including the favoring of American companies. You’re right, pure greed + invasion is no better than Putin’s move. I think it’s time for me to find a couple of good books about that war and see what history has said.

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  12. Thomas12:37 AM

    Calling the invasion of Iraq a "mistake" is far too kind. It was modern day colonialism where you don't formally add the country to your territory, but make sure your companies gets to take over the assets. This failed, but that doesn't change what the war was about.

    Afghanistan was a hotbed of terrorism to a significant extent because USA had financed militant Islamists in their fight against the Soviet Union.

    The major difference is that Russia is facing hard sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine while USA and its allies never faces any consequences for Iraq or war crimes in other countries.

    I wonder what "the market" knows that we don't know yet, because the price of wheat has dropped back to the same level as before the invasion.

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  13. Thomas3:33 AM

    Seems that drop in wheat price was just some electronic glitch that has now been removed. Too bad, I had hoped there was a chance for some good news.

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