Fossil Fuel Use in US: No Progress

No progress in 15 years.

The CO2 emissions from fossil fuel energy production won't follow the same curve because the mixture of fuels -- coal, natural gas, oil -- has changed. I'll try to dig that up.

Source: US Energy Information Agency (annual data) 

The Coming El Nino

The IRI at Columbia University is out with their latest monthly ENSO prediction, and the average predicts a strong El Nino beginning around August:

Anything above 1.5°C is considered a "strong" El Nino. The 2015-2016 El Nino SST anomaly peaked at 2.6°C, and the 1997-1998 peaked at 2.4°C. 

(An "El Nino" has a SST anomaly of 0.5-1.0°C, "moderate" El Nino is 1.0-1.5°C, and "strong" El Nino is > 1.5°C.) There have to be five consecutive months where the index is in a category before it earns one of these labels. 

(This is from the same page as above.)

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James Hansen said in his email newsletter that he has a paper coming out the concludes 'the present greenhouse gas forcing is 70% of the forcing that made Earth’s temperature in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum at least +13°C relative to preindustrial temperature.'

The Eocene is the period after the PETM, from 59 million years ago (Ma) to 49 Ma. Here's more on the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. I don't know much more than this at present....

Have a nice weekend.

Florida Road After Beachfront Erosion

Looks like something from Planet of the Apes.... Hey, maybe that movie was set after global warming had destroyed mankind, and sea level rise was why the Statue of Liberty was destroyed.... (Yes, I know Charleton Heston said "they blew it up," but how would he have known exactly what happened?)

(From a newspaper I've lost the link to.)

FBI Public Service Announcement

America 2023. Jesus F... Christ.

This is an actual ad from the FBI. pic.twitter.com/JNr5rCF392

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) May 9, 2023