June Temperatures

For June, GISS has the globe at 2nd-warmest, same for land-only and Northern Hemisphere, and 4th-warmest (but tightly packed) for the Southern- hemisphere.

Relative to the first 30-year interval possible, 1880-1909, June's global anomaly was 1.44°C. The total change is approximately 1.23°C (2.21°F). Land-only is 1.56°C. The respective 30-year trends are +0.25°C/decade for the globe, and +0.30°C/decade for land-only.

A degree Celsius of global warming every four decades, at this rate. That's astonishing. That means we'd hit 1.5°C of total global warming in 2.4 more years, relative to the first interval available. (Remember, trends are independent of the choice of baseline.) Less if you use a trend of just the last 10 years. Probably less because the warming rate is accelerating:

The error bars are the 95% confidence limit.

Unless an asteroid hits us (*or a comet, or the sun falters, or aliens put up a sunscreen to get rid of us, or there's global nuclear war, you know what I mean), we're hitting 1.5°C of warming in just a few years. 

There should be a global funeral, organized by someone at the right time.

So linear regression is probably losing some of its efficacy. You could also say that the 30-yr trend from the period ~1969 to ~1992 is larger than that from ~1992-today, so the global warming trend is slowing down. "The pause" still makes it difficult to reach decadal changes. 

The 30-yr warming rate from ~1992 to ~2016 was (according to the graph above) about constant which does not say that warming paused, it just didn't accelerate. Since then the linear trend has increased, which is an acceleration of warming. The linear trend of global temperatures since Jan 2016 is +0.32°C/decade, but since the beginning of 2017 it's +0.43°C/decade. Error bars on each are 0.10°C/decade.

Foster and Rahmstorf wrote a paper earlier this year saying global warming has accelerated. (It's open access.) They are much more careful about how they do fits (lowess instead of regression) and obtain this:

PLF=piecewise linear function. You can read the paper if you're ambitious. (Today is a Friday so you're probably not. Me neither, and in any case I have other work to do.) 

Cheers.