tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post1434659821763050173..comments2024-03-19T07:10:27.303-07:00Comments on Quark Soup by David Appell: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Won't Be Setting a Record This YearDavid Appellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-88054237600859805202015-08-16T05:49:56.340-07:002015-08-16T05:49:56.340-07:00Since 1975, records have been set 6 times, or abou...Since 1975, records have been set 6 times, or about 2 per decade.<br /><br />The actually "mean time between minima" is 6.2 years, just using a back of an envelope calculation. The next one is due in about 2018 or 2019 (using exponential statistics) with 63% probability. So it would not be surprising if the next one was a few years late.<br /><br />However, that does not make any assumptions about El Ninos or cyclones. A double or triple whammy of a warm winter, a cyclone and a warm summer would devastate Arctic Ice. This year will not be a record, but it may be in the Lowest 5, even 2nd or 3rd Lowest. That will melt much of the multiyear ice, and make the pack even more vulnerable next year, which may be quite warm. <br /><br />Arctic ice is quite unpredictable. You think you understand it, then a 2012 (record minimum), or a 2013 (a "rebound" to the mean) happens.Tobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03315547955416711269noreply@blogger.com