tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post272785658642916775..comments2024-03-19T07:10:27.303-07:00Comments on Quark Soup by David Appell: Changing "McFibben" to "McIibben"David Appellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-3508792711685819832012-03-26T13:19:17.106-07:002012-03-26T13:19:17.106-07:00David,
Hot records increasingly outnumber cold re...David,<br /><br />Hot records increasingly outnumber cold records both numerically and in terms of area that the records cover (i.e. a record that is broken for an entire nation or territory is more significant than one broken for a city, or a smaller nation). See for example <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2013" rel="nofollow">extreme temperatures for 2011</a>. Complete lists of records can be found <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records" rel="nofollow">here</a> or <a href="http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm" rel="nofollow">here</a>.<br /><br />Also, to take a somewhat more anecdotal example, but I think it is illustrative, the last couple winters in the UK (where I live) and western europe generally have been exceptionally cold and snowy. In December 2010 there was this <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/december-contrasts" rel="nofollow">striking satellite image</a> of the UK and Ireland, apparently frozen solid. It was very cold!<br /><br />Despite that, only one cold record was broken that month, and not for the entire UK, just Northern Ireland. That winter, the UK as a whole had a cold January - but only it's 8th coldest. Meanwhile in 2010 the countries that experienced all-time extreme highs made up <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1831" rel="nofollow">over 20% of Earth's land surface area</a>.Frank O'Dwyerhttp://frankodwyer.com/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-29939186332006514282012-03-26T11:25:03.501-07:002012-03-26T11:25:03.501-07:00Okay, googling around I find it's still contro...Okay, googling around I find it's still controversial. Seems to influence Rossby waves, jetstream position. Why? Maybe due to changes in the UV output, that's far more variable than visible insolation. <br /><br />"Some meteorologists believe, for example, that during phases of low solar activity, 'blocking events' — unusual patterns in westerly air currents that can cause cold snaps and freak weather in Europe — occur more frequently. A blocking event is thought to have caused the southward transport of ash clouds following the eruption in March of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, which disrupted air traffic throughout Europe. But any links between recent weather anomalies and possible peculiarities in the current solar cycle are speculative for now, says Lockwood. "<br />http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html<br /><br />So I grant you that it's not proven by now.DirkHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-16719797101814236292012-03-26T10:53:59.751-07:002012-03-26T10:53:59.751-07:00DirkH: That's interesting if true, but where i...DirkH: That's interesting if true, but where is that shown? And why would it be true -- what is the physical explanation? Offhand I can't think of one....David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-56901144065054670032012-03-26T10:06:09.594-07:002012-03-26T10:06:09.594-07:00Weak solar activity leads to more blocking highs. ...Weak solar activity leads to more blocking highs. That's why the last few years had such a lot of long term stable dry/warm/cold spots with nearly no wind.<br /><br />It doesn't correlate with CO2. It correlates with the sun.<br /><br />We'll get more of that. The sun drops into a grand minimum.DirkHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-29259370861859421262012-03-25T23:30:29.480-07:002012-03-25T23:30:29.480-07:00Charles: Here is the ocean heat data; look especia...Charles: Here is the ocean heat data; look especially at the chart for 0-2000 meters:<br />http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-49491817542306278032012-03-25T23:28:42.369-07:002012-03-25T23:28:42.369-07:00Dano: But *are* extreme events becoming more commo...Dano: But *are* extreme events becoming more common? I'd like to see a study that says they are, if there is one.... There are always going to be extreme events, and so it's a matter of how you count them up. As I pointed out, there was an extreme cold event on the Earth at the very same time there was the extreme warm event in the continental US. And there was just an extreme cold event in eastern Europe last month (though I haven't seen numbers of how extreme). So perhaps extreme events -- somewhere, of some duration, of some magnitude -- aren't really that rare....David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-26695134614134628962012-03-25T23:24:55.103-07:002012-03-25T23:24:55.103-07:00Charles: Warming has certainly not stopped. The oc...Charles: Warming has certainly not stopped. The oceans continue to warm strongly and steadily, and they are a far better indicator of an energy imbalance than the 2-dimensional surface that, in principle, cannot hold any heat at all. <br /><br />A warmer atmosphere is a more energetic atmosphere, and more energy increases the chances of higher energy fluctuations.David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-26181569413075635072012-03-25T18:47:56.703-07:002012-03-25T18:47:56.703-07:00welcome to realitywelcome to realityAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-59848583319415518662012-03-25T17:32:26.254-07:002012-03-25T17:32:26.254-07:00The is no physical scientific basic for the theory...The is no physical scientific basic for the theory that increasing co2 and/or warming leads to increasing extreme events.<br /><br />The theory has risen solely because warming as stopped (at least temporarily) as co2 continues to rise.<br /><br />Current AGW theory says most warming will be (and has been) in the dry air polar regions (because the humid tropics mask the co2 effect).<br /><br />The net result is a decease in the temp difference between warm air masses from the tropics and cold air masses from the polar regions. Heat engines (e.g. hurricanes) derive their energy from the temp differences.charlesHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17798022842779057473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-64054599771220018012012-03-25T15:11:00.694-07:002012-03-25T15:11:00.694-07:00The Russian and Eorupean heat waves, IIRC, were mo...The Russian and Eorupean heat waves, IIRC, were more than 2 SDs outside of range. The eastern US heat wave was farther than that. <br /><br />The point being that extreme events - the fat tail - mare becoming more common (surely Bloom or others here can cite the refs I can't remember). This is the point. That is the point AFAICT McKibben was making.<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />DDanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709762632849004871noreply@blogger.com