tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post62757520265431680..comments2024-03-19T07:10:27.303-07:00Comments on Quark Soup by David Appell: US: That "Hitch" is GoneDavid Appellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-36025942048477542102020-03-22T19:08:10.610-07:002020-03-22T19:08:10.610-07:0054,956 tested by Canada's national lab is from...54,956 tested by Canada's national lab is from earlier in the week. This is now showing 98,824 - https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a2 Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-12162145645146621972020-03-22T14:04:37.108-07:002020-03-22T14:04:37.108-07:00That new count just jumped down to 8149
That'...<i>That new count just jumped down to 8149</i><br /><br />That's much more in line with model predictions (~9000 new cases today). There's still 3 hours to go before they roll over to the next day, so I guess we'll have to wait and see what the final count is for today.<br /><br />Nedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09266537661797164304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-6196588690599777232020-03-22T13:19:41.354-07:002020-03-22T13:19:41.354-07:00Canada shows 54,956 at the national lab, and 58,16...Canada shows 54,956 at the national lab, and 58,165 tested by the provinces, but there is probably a lot of overlap because the national lab confirms provincial findings.Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-67537272759177686192020-03-22T13:16:00.515-07:002020-03-22T13:16:00.515-07:00https://covidtracking.com/data/ shows 217,111https://covidtracking.com/data/ shows 217,111Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-49579122225036209482020-03-22T13:11:17.449-07:002020-03-22T13:11:17.449-07:00USians tested: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...USians tested: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html <br /><br />Number of specimens tested for SARS CoV-2 by CDC labs (N=4,524) and U.S. public health laboratories* (N=61,847)Layzejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346550512734519728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-47965587600343640422020-03-22T13:06:43.131-07:002020-03-22T13:06:43.131-07:00That new count just jumped down to 8149.That new count just jumped down to 8149.David in Calhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10222355423128534221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-85455378177953956602020-03-22T12:19:22.545-07:002020-03-22T12:19:22.545-07:00Thanks, Ned. Do you know of any source for up to ...Thanks, Ned. Do you know of any source for up to date figures on the number of Americans who were tested?<br /><br />CheersDavid in Calhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10222355423128534221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-74134992149851913952020-03-22T10:48:07.241-07:002020-03-22T10:48:07.241-07:00Yikes. Today's count of new cases just doubled...Yikes. Today's count of new cases just doubled. When I posted that previous comment half an hour ago, the new cases were at 6084. Now they're at 13,931.Nedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09266537661797164304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-89641083050603826582020-03-22T10:31:18.003-07:002020-03-22T10:31:18.003-07:00Just for the heck of it, here are the exponential ...Just for the heck of it, here are the exponential model's extrapolations for daily new deaths from Covid-19 in the USA, for the coming week:<br /><br />Sun 3/22: 85<br />Mon 3/23: 110<br />Tue 3/24: 142<br />Wed 3/25: 183<br />Thu 3/26: 236<br />Fri 3/27: 305<br />Sat 3/28: 394<br /><br />Disclaimer: those are simply naive extrapolations based on fitting an exponential growth model to the observations from 3/8 to 3/20 inclusive.<br /><br />If one or two days are above or below the line, it's likely just noise. Hopefully there will start to be a reduction in the exponential growth rate, in which case we might see several days consistently coming in below those extrapolated values.Nedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09266537661797164304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-46153863379273957832020-03-22T10:24:12.688-07:002020-03-22T10:24:12.688-07:00If you go to the USA country page, you can see the...If you go to the USA country page, you can see the historical data (e.g., scroll down to the chart for "daily new cases" and hover over it). Here are recent days:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/" rel="nofollow">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/</a><br /><br />Mar 17: 1748<br />Mar 18: 2848<br />Mar 19: 4530<br />Mar 20: 5594<br />Mar 21: 4824<br /><br />So yes, yesterday was down slightly. On the other hand, today's count is already at 6084 and there's still seven hours to go (they end each day at 00 GMT).<br /><br />The same "noise" is visible in the daily deaths counts, too. The numbers for 3/20 and 3/21 were actually down slightly from 3/19 ... but today (3/22) is already at 86, which is basically right on the prior exponential function (using data from 3/8 to 3/20, the model would predict 85 new deaths today, compared to 86 currently).Nedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09266537661797164304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-39226924365673354302020-03-22T10:16:15.018-07:002020-03-22T10:16:15.018-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Nedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09266537661797164304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-62487826182897340862020-03-22T09:13:54.245-07:002020-03-22T09:13:54.245-07:00I have been using World-O-Meter as a data source. ...I have been using World-O-Meter as a data source. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries I checked it a few times and it agreed with WHO. I noticed something strange. Late yesterday, it showed a number of new US claims over 7000. There is a "Yesterday" button. Right now (8:04 PDT 3/22) it shows 2944 for NOW and 4824 for YESTERDAY. I hypothesize that this chart puts late claims into the current day, but later re-allocates some of them to the subsequent day.<br /><br />As I recall, the re-allocated number for 2 days ago was around 5000. I'm not sure, but I think the figure 3 days ago was also in that range. And, as I said, the re-allocated number for yesterday is 4824. These figures would indicate that new claims have leveled off.<br /><br />This sounds too good to be true. What am I missing?<br /><br />Cheers<br />DavidDavid in Calhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10222355423128534221noreply@blogger.com