tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post8070996389997015555..comments2024-03-19T07:10:27.303-07:00Comments on Quark Soup by David Appell: The Warming of the Atlantic OceanDavid Appellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-85156419534191421222011-09-19T20:31:12.702-07:002011-09-19T20:31:12.702-07:00I'll do that, but with the usual IANAS disclai...I'll do that, but with the usual IANAS disclaimer.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-32188196560747476162011-09-19T11:39:32.035-07:002011-09-19T11:39:32.035-07:00"Steve Bloom said...
Here's the Caro..."Steve Bloom said...<br /><br /> Here's the Carozza et al. paper."<br /><br />Thanks Steve, and thank you for the overall ensmartening. You obviously know this subject well. I have a post up on methyl hydrates; love to get your feedback.<br /><br />http://theidiottracker.blogspot.com/2011/09/is-there-still-clathrate-gun-pointed-at.htmlTheTrackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10011829472333355911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-47923010276437879342011-09-19T10:46:32.940-07:002011-09-19T10:46:32.940-07:00Ha, you're right. I'm not familiar with Ag...Ha, you're right. I'm not familiar with Agulas and was thinking of the northern hemisphere mostly, together with some vague memories. Ignore me :-).William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-83793017687525780182011-09-19T10:30:15.140-07:002011-09-19T10:30:15.140-07:00Belette, are you sure about the direction of the A...Belette, are you sure about the direction of the Agulhas Current? What I'm reading, like the Wikipedia article and others, says the flow is from the Indian to the Atlantic, but that 85% of this is returned by a retroreflection. The remaining 15% is called the "Agulhas Leakage," and still constitutes 15 Sv.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agulhas_Current#RetroflectionDavid Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-91408647118431984602011-09-19T10:25:14.473-07:002011-09-19T10:25:14.473-07:00Thanks for all the good info, guys.Thanks for all the good info, guys.David Appellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03318269033139447591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-32723801911871265722011-09-19T08:10:12.497-07:002011-09-19T08:10:12.497-07:00Also, it seem hard to describe it a a westerly cur...Also, it seem hard to describe it a a westerly current. It's only the forcing back by the ACC that makes any part of it westerly.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-80956669901318494252011-09-19T08:04:31.057-07:002011-09-19T08:04:31.057-07:00William, I imagine it's the case that the Agul...William, I imagine it's the case that the Agulhas would have such an effect (although better attributed to the action of the ACC AIUI), and since is likely continuing to do so, but per recent obs it is indeed leaking more and more into the Atlantic. From the Lee et al. abstract: "Further analysis reveals that the increased inter-ocean heat transport is not only caused by the increased upper ocean temperature of the inflow but also, and more strongly, by the <b>increased Agulhas Current leakage, which is augmented by the strengthening of the wind stress curl over the South Atlantic and Indian subtropical gyre</b>." (Emphasis added.) In the last few years this has become a big focus of oceanography research.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-76154131278021835912011-09-19T02:08:13.182-07:002011-09-19T02:08:13.182-07:00> mostly the heat it is coming from the Indian ...> mostly the heat it is coming from the Indian Ocean, much of it via the Agulhas Current<br /><br />Are you sure? Agulhas is westerly, ie it moves stuff from the atlantic to the indian.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-89898557469243190812011-09-18T22:16:01.325-07:002011-09-18T22:16:01.325-07:00Erratum: In the third paragraph of my second comm...Erratum: In the third paragraph of my second comment, it should read Dickens paper *comments*.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-19194843795302809062011-09-18T22:13:59.579-07:002011-09-18T22:13:59.579-07:00David, remember a few weeks ago when I told you th...David, remember a few weeks ago when I told you that Ryan Maue was telling a porky when he claimed that the warming of the North Atlantic was due to the AMO? This paper says why.<br /><br />Re the description, it's pretty straightforward:<br /><br />The warm Agulhas heads down the east coast of Africa and in cool-climate conditions is largely forced off to the east by the very strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current as soon as it passes the tip. As the climate warms, the tropics expand and push the entire global atmospheric circulation poleward, including the winds that drive the ACC. This in turn enables more (and yet more as the warming proceeds) of the warm Agulhas water to continue around the tip into the Atlantic, where it gets caught up in the thermohaline circulation and carried north.<br /><br />And the expansion of the tropics? It's been formally <a href="http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Lu_Deser_Reichler_2009.pdf" rel="nofollow">attributed</a> to you know who.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-9138501458612938012011-09-18T21:49:58.174-07:002011-09-18T21:49:58.174-07:00Oh, that was the Zeebe paper you couldn't acce...Oh, that was the Zeebe paper you couldn't access. <a href="http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/oceanography/faculty/zeebe_files/Publications/ZeebeNGS09.pdf" rel="nofollow">Here</a> it is.<br /><br />Also, here's a hot link to the Zeebe NGeo <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n7/full/ngeo1196.html#/references" rel="nofollow">commentary</a>.<br /><br />Aha, so Dickens wants a mention in the AR5. :) Interesting anyway, but re degrees of pleasantness don't forget that for the clathrate gun to be triggered under present circumstances would mean that the East Siberian Shelf methane would all go first. Not a happy thought.<br /><br />Re the Atlantic, it's been thought for a long time that volcanism there (the Greenland magmatic province that got the North Atlantic split going in a big way) had a big role in the PETM. Details are unclear, and I'm not sure everyone in the field even agrees. There's some detail relating to this in the Dickens paper, but I haven't had time to more than skim them so far.<br /><br />All of that said, the Agulhas warming isn't something that could do the job; among other things it's not deep enough. OTOH it's definitely helping warm the Arctic Ocean, regarding which see my remark above.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-81529150437601779082011-09-18T20:06:05.869-07:002011-09-18T20:06:05.869-07:00Here's the Carozza et al. paper.
More later.Here's the Carozza et al. <a href="http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2011/2011_Carozza_etal.pdf" rel="nofollow">paper</a>.<br /><br />More later.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28837843.post-88008013171781903302011-09-18T16:45:16.530-07:002011-09-18T16:45:16.530-07:00If the Atlantic continues to warn rapidly, there m...If the Atlantic continues to warn rapidly, there may be complications.<br /><br />Carozza (2011) tells us (citing Zeebe (2009), which I can't access) that "the Atlantic reservoir . . . is the most likely location of an oceanic carbon release."<br /><br />http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n8/abs/ngeo578.html<br /><br />It seems that the clathrate gun hypothesis is not quite as dead as we thought . . . pleasant dreams.<br /><br />http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/7/1139/2011/cpd-7-1139-2011.htmlTheTrackerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10011829472333355911noreply@blogger.com