Predicting the UAH Anomaly

I was going to write about this month's raw satellite temperature measurements for the lower troposphere from UAH, and "predict" what the final anomaly for March would be. But I thought I'd better check something first.

At first glance, March seems to be warming up more than recent years, based on the raw data:

So you might say, sure, La Nina is nearly over and we expect apparent global warming to resume again and so on. But then I made this graph of the monthly averages for the raw UAH temperatures, versus that after all the adjustments for satellite drift, etc.:

which shows no correlation. You might think, well, maybe there's some correlation in there, which changes after they do some special adjustment every 1.5 to 2 years:

but that's just too much guesswork. So UAH really means their caveat at the bottom of the page:

The global-average data displayed on this page have only limited quality control, can undergo unannounced changes, and so should only be used as a general guide. Official, quality-controlled global lower-tropospheric temperatures, using more extensive processing procedures (and possibly different satellite instruments) are updated every month and are available at: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/

So, with the understanding this is for entertainment purposes only (as they say), my prediction guess for the March LT anomaly is:

UAH global LT March anomaly = +0.12°C

Be sure to read this post by Roy Spencer, which explains some of the complications.