Over 70% Chance of an El Nino, Says Oz Bureau of Meteorology

Today's ENSO Wrap-up by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology estimates a greater than 70% chance an El Nino will develop this summer (Northern hemisphere summer; their winter), although they say it's too early to estimate its strength.

Some people are already trying to spin away the impact of this coming El Nino; Roy Spencer wrote:

Of course, an El Nino at the end of the record will increase the global temperature trend…at least temporarily…but El Nino is often followed by a cool La Nina, which would basically cancel out that effect.

Of course, a El Nino La Nina at the end of the record will increase decrease the global temperature trend…at least temporarily…but El Nino La Nina is often followed by a cool warm La Nina El Nino, which would basically cancel out that effect.

Though the world never did cool much after the 1997-98 El Nino, did it?

Notice how Spencer labels his graph with "El Nino Warming," but doesn't label the "La Nina Coolings." No bias there.