Chance of Strong El Nino Declining

That's what Tony Barnston of Columbia University's International Research Institute on Climate and Society says -- the El Nino is developing right now, but could be of more moderate strength. He finds a probability it could die (like in 2012) of 25%:

  May 2014 Climate Briefing Highlights, with Tony Barnston from IRI on Vimeo.

Here is their map of sea-surface temperatures, and below is the Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly updated for this week, compared to two recent El Ninos; you can see it has been having its own little hiatus, and took a dip down this week:

Via Andrew Revkin on Twitter.