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Sunday, October 18, 2015

Australia High Temperature Records 12 Times Cold Records

A September paper in GRL by Sophie C. Lewis and Andrew D. King looks at hot and cold temperaure records in Australia for the last one and a half decades. Their conclusion:
"...during 2000–2014, new hot records outnumber new cold records by 12 to one on average." 
which is a pretty large ratio. They emphasize (which should be obvious if you think about it) 
"In a stationary climate, the probability of setting new temperature records should decrease rapidly from the beginning of the sequence of observations."
Here's the graphical version of their results:


Finally, here are the temperature time series going back to 1910:


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9 comments:

  1. John11:53 AM

    I understand the general prediction of climate change to be increases in extreme weather events.

    Wouldn't that include low temperature records?

    John Puma

    ReplyDelete
  2. David Appell12:04 PM

    I don't think that's how it works....

    ReplyDelete
  3. John7:44 AM

    To David:

    Do you mean that is not the general prediction of climate change science or that extremes of cold are not to be considered?

    John Puma

    ReplyDelete
  4. John7:48 AM

    To David:

    Do you mean more extreme weather events are not the general prediction of climate science or temperature lows are considered weather extremes?

    John Puma

    ReplyDelete
  5. David Appell1:09 PM

    The former. See the IPCC SREX Figure SPM.3 on page 7, in here:

    http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  6. John5:36 PM

    To David,

    From the IPCC report you offered: "Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development."

    Is there a misunderstanding or are we splitting hairs?

    John Puma



    ReplyDelete
  7. David Appell5:51 PM

    I don't understand what your question is.

    ReplyDelete
  8. John2:09 AM

    I said the general prediction of climate change science is "more extreme weather events."

    You said it doesn't work that way and referred me to pg7 of an IPCC report on which page can be found this quote: "A changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events."

    It's not clear how that contradicts my point. It seems to support it.
    Are you (and IPCC) saying, for example, that "frequency" means both increased or decreased frequency, depending on the other stated factors?

    John Puma

    ReplyDelete
  9. David Appell6:12 AM

    John: Seems it depends on the details. All I could do is quote from the IPCC SREX, so you should just go there and read for yourself. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete