The S&P 500 has gone up 7.7% since Biden was elected (as of this moment). [It's up 70% since Trump was elected.] So Biden's on pace for some spectacular returns 😁. Also see Paul Krugman, Making the Most of the Coming Biden Boom, NYT 11/19/20.
At this point the stock market is totally disconnected from reality. With zero interest rate the market value of a company that produces any return is in theory infinite. At least as long as you ignore any risks, and the market is good at doing that.
That's a weird response. "uncertainty always exists" makes no sense in this context, any more than "climate always changes" makes sense as an answer to "the climate is changing".
Before the election, there was uncertainty as to who would be elected (despite a general belief that B would win) and this made for uncertainty. After, there was uncertainty as to how hard T would fight to steal the election, and this too is now resolved. So, businesses will be happier, as will investors. Furthermore, the question of whether grandiose (and, I and I think themarket would argue, ill-conceived) "green new deal" type stuff would be planned; with the D's not doing well lower down, that's largely shelved.
It's not a weird response. I've noticed that in the last few months your replies on Twitter, FB, here and elsewhere all try to be high-handed, smart-alecked, witty (though rarely) but pertinent, like you're above it all but still want to stick it to everyone. Your latest reply here strikes me as another of the same. Not sure what you're aiming for but like the rest it seems forced, fake and false.
You can disagree but given all this I don't see that it matters. Sorry but too bad.
David, in this case I think the meaning of Wllian's intial comment was clear, that it was uncertanty about the election, and your complaint was the "smart-alecked" one.
There must be a real economic impact to having all these folks without a job to go back to. In the short term stimulus cheques from the government are propping up the economy, but in the long term this must come crashing down.
That's my guess anyway. Maybe "Green new deal" spending will keep things going. It's all money borrowed from your kids though. Will they appreciate it if we leave them with a mountain of debt but say "yeah, but weren't times great back then?"
i would be shocked if the pandemic shutdowns don’t catch up with us and lead to a crash.
ReplyDeleteBut shouldn't that have happened months ago, like a few months after March?
ReplyDeleteAt this point the stock market is totally disconnected from reality. With zero interest rate the market value of a company that produces any return is in theory infinite. At least as long as you ignore any risks, and the market is good at doing that.
ReplyDeleteA proportion of that 7.7% is removal of uncertainty, so doesn't project forwards.
ReplyDeleteA proportion of that 7.7% is removal of uncertainty, so doesn't project forwards.
ReplyDeleteNope; I know you like simplistic answers that seem to throw everyone off-stride, but uncertainty always exists.
That's a weird response. "uncertainty always exists" makes no sense in this context, any more than "climate always changes" makes sense as an answer to "the climate is changing".
ReplyDeleteBefore the election, there was uncertainty as to who would be elected (despite a general belief that B would win) and this made for uncertainty. After, there was uncertainty as to how hard T would fight to steal the election, and this too is now resolved. So, businesses will be happier, as will investors. Furthermore, the question of whether grandiose (and, I and I think themarket would argue, ill-conceived) "green new deal" type stuff would be planned; with the D's not doing well lower down, that's largely shelved.
It's not a weird response. I've noticed that in the last few months your replies on Twitter, FB, here and elsewhere all try to be high-handed, smart-alecked, witty (though rarely) but pertinent, like you're above it all but still want to stick it to everyone. Your latest reply here strikes me as another of the same. Not sure what you're aiming for but like the rest it seems forced, fake and false.
ReplyDeleteYou can disagree but given all this I don't see that it matters. Sorry but too bad.
David, in this case I think the meaning of Wllian's intial comment was clear, that it was uncertanty about the election, and your complaint was the "smart-alecked" one.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Yelp data, permanent closures have reached 97,966.
ReplyDeleteThere must be a real economic impact to having all these folks without a job to go back to. In the short term stimulus cheques from the government are propping up the economy, but in the long term this must come crashing down.
That's my guess anyway. Maybe "Green new deal" spending will keep things going. It's all money borrowed from your kids though. Will they appreciate it if we leave them with a mountain of debt but say "yeah, but weren't times great back then?"