So Biden's chance of winning all four of those states, which he did, was 1 in 1075. What an incredibly lucky man! With those odds I hope he bet heavily on himself with his Wilmington bookie.
Apparently this Appendix hasn't been released yet. I'm sure they're polishing the fine details. Lawyer Eugene Volokoh calls it "flim-flammery of the highest order."
This gives a tad more insight, by a anchor on something called Peacock TV, a streaming service of NBCUniversal:
Do you know how big a quadrillion really is? Neither do I. But as Mehdi explains, “one in a quadrillion” is all the math you’re going to need to understand Trump’s chances of being president next term. pic.twitter.com/7Vodiimf4w
— The Mehdi Hasan Show (@MehdiHasanShow) December 10, 2020
Yes, this is statistical garbage. Of course, the implication is not meant to be that Biden was phenomenally lucky. The implication is meant to be that it's a certainty that Biden won by fraud. I think the election may indeed have been stolen, but this kind of statistical nonsense brings no enlightenment.
ReplyDeleteCheers
Yes, this is statistical garbage.
ReplyDeleteBut as kayleigh Mcenany told us this is a signed declaration from a tenured professor. So it's just like all those signed affadavits Trump supporters keep telling us must be credible. I mean who cares if it's all bunk. It's only the future of democracy in America that's at stake.
J.D. - Fifty years ago, my friend JF, a statistics professor at Temple University used statistical trickery to promote desegregation. He would "prove" that some organization was discriminating against blacks, using some invalid assumptions. The result of his trickery was that more blacks got hired.
ReplyDeleteFrankly I don't this bogus calculation will work. I see no chance that the election will be overturned, whether or not it deserves to be overturned.
cheers
But as kayleigh Mcenany told us this is a signed declaration from a tenured professor.
ReplyDeleteI.e. she doesn't have a clue about the veracity of the analysis and isn't interested in getting other opinions.
The result of his trickery was that more blacks got hired.
ReplyDeleteYou make it sound like that was a bad thing.
David in Cal wrote:
ReplyDeleteI think the election may indeed have been stolen
You are delusional, and this delusion is going to tear America into pieces.
David - I didn't say it was a bad thing that blacks got hired. My point was that a good thing resulted from a bad statistical analysis.
ReplyDeletecheers
DiC, for your analogy to make sense you must think that it is a good thing if the election gets overtured, even if it is based on phony arguments. You dig yourself deeper and deeper into a swamp.
ReplyDeleteThe discrepancy between mail in votes cast later in the day, and votes cast in person is too large to be simply chance. It seems obvious to me that all the votes prior to the mail in ballads must be fraudulent and should be discarded. Probably the in-person voting machines had been hacked, but no need to find the exact root cause. The statistics speak for themselves. /sarc
ReplyDelete" If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong. "
ReplyDeleteArthur C. Clarke
Layzej - the point isn't that Republican claims of fraud are necesarily correct. The point is, they should be fully investigated.
ReplyDeleteCheers
The point is, they should be fully investigated.
ReplyDeleteWhy? They're getting laughed out of court. They have no credibility.
Just because someone claims something doesn't mean it should be investigated. There needs to be some *good* evidence behind it.
David in Cal
ReplyDelete" The term prima facie is used in modern legal English (including both civil law and criminal law) to signify that upon initial examination, sufficient corroborating evidence appears to exist to support a case. "
In court after court the Trump legal team have failed to meet even this basic standard.
So why investigate?
DiC at 1:56: “Yes, this is statistical garbage.“
ReplyDeleteDoc at 6:29: “ the point isn't that Republican claims of fraud are necesarily correct. The point is, they should be fully investigated.”
What is the value of the courts entertaining statistical garbage? Suppose they are stupid enough to fall for statistical garbage. Should they invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes? From which side? It would be just as valid to drop the votes prior to midnight as those after midnight.
In my opinion, nothing justifies filling people’s heads with garbage, even if there is a chance it could steal you the presidency.
David in Cal wrote:
ReplyDeleteYes, this is statistical garbage. Of course, the implication is not meant to be that Biden was phenomenally lucky. The implication is meant to be that it's a certainty that Biden won by fraud
David, how can the argument be both statistical garbage yet have a meaningful implication? It can't.