4 of 6 Projections Have Annual Temperature Above 1.5°C
Projections for the annual global temperature anomaly from six different groups, via Zeke Hausfather at Skeptical Science. All will be the warmest year in their data record. Doubt it will make any difference to the deniers.
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.
6 years later we had a year that averaged 1.5C.
Did they get it quite so wrong, or is there nuance I'm missing?
The problem is that a politician is a man who wants your vote. This makes them eager to promise popular outcomes, but unwilling to do unpopular things to get there.
Layzej said... "It's just a bit odd that they would say we need to do something within 12 years to avoid something that was all but certain to happen in 6."
It seems they have to play a LOT of politics, and as a result always end up underestimating the amount of warming and rate of change.
Layzej wrote: "In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.... 6 years later we had a year that averaged 1.5C."
They may also have been caught off-guard by the huge 2023-24 El Nino, which no one really saw coming.
Did they get it quite so wrong, or is there nuance I'm missing?
Entropic man wrote: "If you do the maths, 395ppm is the CO2 concentration which ends up causing 1.5C of warming. We passed that milestone 20 years ago."
Nice calculation. Maybe they reduced their earlier target of 2.0 C to 1.5 C by thinking that if they set the lower limit it might wake people up when we (inevitably) got there. Also maybe they took note of the science that said some tipping points could be as low as 1.5 C. It always did seem unobtainably low.
In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.
ReplyDelete6 years later we had a year that averaged 1.5C.
Did they get it quite so wrong, or is there nuance I'm missing?
The problem is that a politician is a man who wants your vote. This makes them eager to promise popular outcomes, but unwilling to do unpopular things to get there.
ReplyDeleteHence the ineffective response to climate change.
It's just a bit odd that they would say we need to do something within 12 years to avoid something that was all but certain to happen in 6.
ReplyDeleteA politician once promised two women for every man and a faithful husband for every woman.
ReplyDeleteThe political statements coming out of COP have been equally coherent.
The 1.5C target was always political rather than scientific. It was never realistic and was already obsolete when it was proposed.
If you do the maths, 395ppm is the CO2 concentration which ends up causing 1.5C of warming. We passed that milestone 20 years ago.
Sorry, ten years ago.
ReplyDeleteLayzej said...
ReplyDelete"It's just a bit odd that they would say we need to do something within 12 years to avoid something that was all but certain to happen in 6."
It seems they have to play a LOT of politics, and as a result always end up underestimating the amount of warming and rate of change.
Layzej wrote:
ReplyDelete"In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.... 6 years later we had a year that averaged 1.5C."
They may also have been caught off-guard by the huge 2023-24 El Nino, which no one really saw coming.
Did they get it quite so wrong, or is there nuance I'm missing?
Entropic man wrote:
ReplyDelete"If you do the maths, 395ppm is the CO2 concentration which ends up causing 1.5C of warming. We passed that milestone 20 years ago."
Nice calculation. Maybe they reduced their earlier target of 2.0 C to 1.5 C by thinking that if they set the lower limit it might wake people up when we (inevitably) got there. Also maybe they took note of the science that said some tipping points could be as low as 1.5 C. It always did seem unobtainably low.