David Rose, Not so Sweet

A few weeks ago David Rose of The Telegraph made a stir, claiming that global warming had been nil over the last 16 years.

It was complete crap, not worthy of a so-called journalist.

What was that claim based on? Only this:

This is a plot of the slope (linear trend) of the HadCRUT4 surface data, from the indicated date to the present.

So, from January 1990 to August 2012, the linear trend is 0.144 C/decade, with a 95% confidence level of 0.024 C/decade due to uncertainty of the statistics of linear regression. (HadCRUT4 does give the measurement uncertainty of each data point, but they quickly become less than the statistical error -- for the 20-yr slope the measurement uncertainty is about 0.002 C/decade, while the statistical uncertainty is 0.015 C/decade.)

The "true uncertainty" is the square root of the sum of the squares of these two numbers, which is essentially just the statistical uncertainty (plotted above).

So David Rose's claim of no global warming is dependant on this small, tiny, temporary period between 1997 and 1998 where the 95% CL error bars reach barely into the x-axis.

That's all. That's it.

That's why Tamino calls Rose a cherry-picker -- justifiably.

You really have to wonder how some people sleep at night. You really do.

Plea

How with this rage shall beauty hold a plea,

Whose action is no stronger than a flower?

-- William Shakespeare, Sonnet 65

About Sandy, and the Ultimate in Cherry-Picking

While I'm sorry not to be back east to experience an historic storm -- I still maintain a child's delight in bad weather, while realizing these storms do a lot of property damage that adults must deal with -- I'm not buying into the hype, either.

And the hype is beyond repair -- Felix Salmon says the storm could result in a "major constitutional crisis." Why? He doesn't say.

Look, storms happen. And, yes, they're a memorable part of life, but they're part of life.

My best storm memories are of Hurricane Agnes, that sweep through the mid-Atlantic states. Our house had a 20-ft wide stream boarding two sides of our yard, and it turned into a torrent that swept away our swing set and, as I've written before, finally ruined the relationship between my loud-mouthed grandmother and my great uncle when she told him, about his VW Bug. "You'd better get that damn thing out of the driveway before it floats away!" she yelled at him. I suspect they had issues before this, but it was the last straw -- they never spoke again, as far as I know.

We had storms aplenty in the mountains where I grew up -- we mountain kids routinely missed 2 weeks of school a year due to snow, and were always tromping into school late after a long bus ride, the school's loud speaker asking that we please be admitted late to class. One of my most vivid memories was from my 8th birthday.... I was born on Leap Year Day, so my 8th year was a real birthday, and the first one I was really cognizant of. Of course, I was excited beyond description.... And the day of my party there was a huge snowstorm, and I sat beside a window looking out at all the white as one-by-one my friend's mom's called my mom to say they wouldn't be able to make it to my party.... So me, my brother, and my mom and dad ate my birthday cake after dinner, let-down and somber.

We had a lot of storms up there. We didn't freak out about it -- it was just winter. When the power went out my mother hammered up blankets on the doorframe to keep heat in the kitchen. She or my dad got up in the middle of every cold night, for years, to go down to the cellar and shovel coal into the furnace. No one froze to death, but we did sleep in long underwear with our socks on. My brother and I went out sled-riding in the dark with my cousins, and we came in so frozen we couldn't get our boots off. Warming up was actually painful.

In college I drove my brother and sister back to my grandparents for Thanksgiving. I was a freshman in college, and it was probably the first time I was in charge and on my own. We had this little VW bug of our own that was (in retrospect) a total death trap -- ice would clump under the clutch. At my grandparents there was a huge snowstorm and a tree fell across a power line, and we spent 4 days there without power, cooking hot dogs and beans over their fireplace.... No one died, no one starved to death, and it turned out to be a great memory that I wish I could re-live....

In grad school Hurricane Gloria swept over Long Island and the campus at Stony Brook. The physics grad students came to our offices that morning -- the University tried to herd all the students into the squash courts, but we didn't go for that -- and we watched the storm roll over while the huge plate windows on the building swayed (and some eventually broke). My friend Tom rode in in the middle of the Hurricane... and the eye passed directly over us -- I remember a small spot of blue sky -- and then the wind started again in the opposite direction. The campus had its own generators, but the towns nearby all lost power for a week, so the professors and grad students who lived there had big bar-b-ques every night lest the meat in their freezers went bad. Nothing attracts graduate students like free food, and that it was eaten in backyards by candlelight was so much the better.

Here in Oregon there are hardly ever any bad storms -- the last one was Columbus Day 1962, with winds over 130 mph. The only anomaly that will happen here is another M9 Cascadia Quake, which is overdue and will utterly devestate the region. (Unless Yellowstone blows another supervolcanoe. One of my good friends is a Professor Emeritus of Geology at MIT, and he says he would not live in the Pacific NW because of volcanic risks. I think he's exaggerating a bit.)

Storms happen. As far as I can tell, Hurricane Sandy was a Cat 1 that just happened to coincide with (1) a storm from the west, (2) a cold front from the north, and (3) and full-moon tide.

Climate science is all about trends -- where are they? As far as I can tell Ryan Maue is the best keeper of storm records, and here are his results:

Global Hurricane Frequency:

Global ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy):

And, if you like Kerry Emanuel's Power Dissipation Index better:

Yes, I know that ACE's deficiency is that it doesn't include the size of storms -- a true energy includes the mass (i.e. size) of a storm, and not just its velocity (squared) -- and Hurricane Sandy was a particularly large storm -- I heard 1000 km at some point. But where are those statistics?

The Bill McKibben's and Brad Johnson's who jump on every storm in service of their cause are just as misguided as climate change deniers. It is the ultimate cherry pick -- wait until an event happens, and they proclaim it as typical. There needs to be just as strong a term for them -- "climate exaggerators," perhaps -- because despite what they think they are doing, they are ruining the cause of controlling carbon and minimizing future impacts. They have turned religious on the issue, and like all zealots they believe their cause justifies any lie.

They have become clowns who can always be counted on to parrot their beliefs, regardless of the facts. And that makes people dismiss the issue, not understand it.

The Failures of the Men of God

New York Times, 10/25/12:

Still Blogging in a Twitter World

I've taken some time off from blogging, and might take more. I just don't see the return in it, unless somehow I can make some money from it. Or I might take to Twitter (@davidappell), where short and pithy comments are easier and more appreciated, and equally meaningless.

Some things I've noticed lately:

• This paper in the journal Atmospheric Environment looks at air pollution in China is causing 418,000 to 514,000 deaths annually (I think it's per year), with 511,000 deaths avoided in the last decade. (The abstract isn't absolutely clear about the time periods of the numbers involved.) That's a lot of air pollution.
• This press release about prostate cancer says that 90 million American adults read below the high school level. (It advocates dumbing down patient information.) Can that possibly be true? If so, damn, we're a pretty dumb country. American Exceptionalism? Yeah, right.
• I don't know either if Michael Mann has any chance of winning his lawsuit against NRO, Mark Steyn, and Rand Simberg -- an article in Science magazine minimizes his chances, but doesn't put them at zero --  but clearly what those pseudo-intellectuals wrote was deplorable. (And completely devoid of science -- the hockey stick has been replicated by several other groups and completely independent mathematical techniques.) Of course, accuracy and insight has never been what the attacks on Mann have been about -- they're about plunging a finger in what's been manufactured to be seen as an open wound, seeking to enlarge and inflame it. I think Mann will go down in history as the Galileo of our time, and his assailants as the ignorant Catholic officials whose truculence represented the beginning of the end of their misplaced ideas. 
• That said, I don't think authors for the IPCC ought to go around claiming they are Nobel Laureates, as Mann has recently attracted some attention for doing. What's wrong with the title "Nobel Contributor?" (Scientific American recently wrote about the need for the Nobel committee to better recognize groups and not just individuals.) It maintains its due connection to the prize, but doesn't place the title holder in the set of Bohr and Dirac, Feynman and Weinberg (where they don't belong). To me it sounds just right.
• Richard Cohen nails it in the Washington Post: "The president who seems not to care."

  "...somewhere between the campaign and the White House itself, Obama got lost. It turned out he had no cause at all. Expanding health insurance was Hillary Clinton’s longtime goal, and even after Obama adopted it, he never argued for it with any fervor. In an unfairly mocked campaign speech, he promised to slow the rise of the oceans and begin to heal the planet. But when he took office, climate change was abandoned — too much trouble, too much opposition. His eloquence, it turned out, was reserved for campaigning. 

  "Obama never espoused a cause bigger than his own political survival. This is the gravamen of the indictment from the left, particularly certain African Americans. They are right. Young black men fill the jails and the morgues, yet Obama says nothing. Bobby Kennedy showed his anger, his impatience, his stunned incredulity at the state of black America. Obama shows nothing."

  Honestly, do you have any impression that Obama wants anything more than to get re-elected -- or that Mitt Romney would sell his children, if he could, to attain the office? I still think Steve Duin of The Oregonian said it best, this July:

  "Who still believes that either candidate wants anything from the rest of us beyond a show of hands?"

  This election marks the end of my belief that much of anything will ever again change for the better in America -- or that it's possible in a country of our size. In a Twitter world, what do you expect, really?

"Are You Just Running on the Issues?"

From the NYT obituary of Barry Commoner, of his 1980 run for President in :

His own favorite moment of the campaign, he recalled many years later, was when a reporter in Albuquerque asked, “Dr. Commoner, are you a serious candidate, or are you just running on the issues?”

Commoner certainly did a lot to elevate environmental concerns, but he went too far at times -- his 2002 article in Harper's, "Unraveling the DNA myth," was not very scientific (naturally, though, Harper's ate it up because of his point of view), which seems to be the case with much of the left's opposition to genetic modification.

A life well lived, though.

More on Why Arctic Melting Matters

The other day I estimated that the melting of global sea ice contributes to global warming about 10% as much as man-made greenhouse gases. (And that's beside whatever it's doing to the jet stream, atmospheric blocking patterns, and weather extremes.)

A commenter on another site pointed to this Hudson GRL 2011, which attempted to answer this very question with better science by including changes in cloud cover and the seasonal variation of solar radiation.

He concludes that the increase in forcing due to Arctic sea ice over the period 1979-2007 is about 0.1 W/m². (My estimate was 0.12 W/m², which was closer than it deserved to be.)

By comparison, manmade CO2 forcing is now about 1.8 W/m², and the forcing from all manmade GHGs is about 2.8 W/m².

(Incidentally, that means, if you lump all GHGs into a CO2-only picture, the effective atmospheric CO2 level is about 470 ppm, as of 2010.)

Hudson finds

"...a complete removal of Arctic sea ice results in a forcing of about 0.7 W m⁻², while a more realistic ice-free-summer scenario (no ice for one month, decreased ice at all other times of the year) results in a forcing of about 0.3 W m⁻², similar to present-day anthropogenic forcing caused by halocarbons. The potential for changes in cloud cover as a result of the changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain, since such changes could overwhelm the forcing caused by the sea-ice loss itself, if the cloudiness increases in the summertime.

Marc Morano and Steve Goddard are desperately trying to distract attention by highlighting the gain in Antarctic sea ice. The problem, of course, is that the Arctic is melting much faster than the Antarctic is gaining ice: -54 Kkm2/yr compared to +14 Kkm2/yr, since the beginning of satellite records.

Added: Then there is the fact that Arctic sea ice tends to be thicker than Antarctic sea ice: about 2-3 meters versus 1-2 meters, says the NSIDC. So a loss of a square meter of Arctic sea ice is a larger volume loss than is the volume gain of an Antarctic square meter of sea ice.

Monkey-Poo Model Results for September

At month's end, the Monkey-Poo model suggests the September UAH anomaly for the lower troposphere will be about +0.46°C.

Quite warm, if true -- 2nd only after 2010's +0.48°C.

Homer Simpson Votes Again

Coal's Black Swan

Clark Williams-Derry at Slightline has a revealing chart on US coal consumption for electricity production.

He writes:

"...In all my years of examining economic and environmental trends, I’ve never seen anything like this. Gasoline consumption might shift by a few percentage points per year at most. Coal consumption trends had been very much of that ilk: consumption would shift slowly, but with a long-term trend towards steady growth. "So a drop of this magnitude is a proverbial “black swan“—an unforeseeable event with dramatic, world-changing consequences."

As he notes, it's a major reason for the 20-year low in US CO2 emissions, and why the coal companies want to export through the Pacific Northwest.

Why the Melting Arctic Matters

There are a lot of comments about the gain in Antarctic sea ice versus loss of Arctic sea ice, most of which miss the point, which is the ice-albedo feedback.

Roughly, I find that the net melting of global sea ice is adding about 10% to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Some numbers. In a comment, S. Davis wrote:

As you know, there is a distinct lack of ice this year, and there is even less than in 2007. However, like 2007, there is an abundance of ice in Antarctica. In fact, we are above the 1979-2000 satellite average by about 1 million square km. And just last week a paper was released that showed that the Antarctic has been gaining ice mass since 2003, and not losing ice since 1992. As you know, the Antarctic contains about 90% of the ice on this planet, while the Arctic contains about .01% of the global total, that is one ten thousandth of the total. The Antarctic contains about 90% of the ice on this planet. Any small gain in the Antarctic dwarfs any loss in the Arctic. For example, a 1% increase in the Antarctic is almost 300,000 cubic km., while the Arctic only contains 24,000 cubic km. in winter!

In fact, Arctic sea ice is melting faster than Antarctic sea ice is increasing, with the Antarctic currently having about 53% of total sea ice. In the last 10 years, Arctic SIE has decreased by 7.3% relative to the 10 years before, while Antarctic SIE has increased by 2.3%.

Total SIE has decreased by 2.5%, and the trend of total SIE extent since the satellite era -38 Kkm²/yr. (It's -47 Kkm²/yr over the last decade.)

This net melting changes the Earth's albedo, and it absorbs more energy. If S is the solar radiation incident on a piece of sea ice of area A, and it melts, the net energy absorbed is

ΔE = (α_ice - α_sea)SA

where α is the albedo. α_ice ≈ 0.5 and α_sea ≈ 0.1.

David Randall's book has a chart (pg 33) showing that the average solar constant at 80°N during the time when the Sun is above the horizon is 250 W/m², and the Antarctic receives very nearly the same. Let's divide S by 2, since the Sun is up only half the year above [below] the Arctic [Antarctic] circle.

Using these numbers, I find the energy absorbed from this melting ice is an additional 2 trillion watts per year. Averaged over the Earth's entire surface it comes to an additional 0.004 W/m² of energy each year, over the entire globe

(This additional heat isn't strictly a forcing, since it takes place regionally and not globally, but this gives an idea of its magnitude. Also, note that I have not assumed any melting of Antarctic land ice.)

Global anthropogenic radiative forcing from greenhouse gases is now about 2.8 W/m2, increasing about 0.03 W/m² each year. (The net forcing is about half this, due to the cooling effect of aerosols.)

So just the melting sea ice is adding roughly 10% to the manmade greenhouse effect -- not an insubstantial amount.

The Americans Who Are Now Dying Earlier

Perhaps the most shocking sign of America's deep problems is the decline in life expectancy now taking place in hundreds of its counties, primarily among less educated women.

This has been in the news in the last few days, but as far as I know it first appeared in the literature over a year ago:

“Falling behind: life expectancy in US counties from 2000 to 2007 in an international context”

Sandeep C Kulkarni, Alison Levin-Rector, Majid Ezzati and Christopher JL Murray

Population Health Metrics 2011, 9:16 

http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/9/1/16

As the Los Angeles Times reported then:

"In 737 U.S. counties out of more than 3,000, life expectancies for women declined between 1997 and 2007. For life expectancy to decline in a developed nation is rare. Setbacks on this scale have not been seen in the U.S. since the Spanish influenza epidemic of 1918, according to demographers.

The backsliding for women began before 1997, but researchers found it had accelerated in the last decade. Only 227 counties saw women's life expectancy decline between 1987 and 1997, according to the study.

The worst-performing counties were clustered primarily in Appalachia, the Deep South and the lower Midwest. In those places, women died as much as a year younger in 2007 than women did a decade earlier. Life expectancy for women slipped 2 1/2 years in Madison County, Miss., which recorded the biggest regression."

To my mind -- as a self-employed, middle-aged American with pre-existing conditions, who has great difficulty getting the health care I need -- this is the most worrisome trend in the country. I wish it would get asked about at the Presidential debates -- but, since the Big Media moderators all have big incomes and great health benefits, I doubt very much that it will. Let's face it -- few people care, and Mitt Romney is the least of them. (Even Barack Obama doesn't dare venture into the poorer parts of the country.)

As Harold Meyerson writes in the Washington Post:

The market is not just redistributing income in the United States, then. It is redistributing life.

Watts Won't Reveal His "Independent Donor"

Watts replies:

The 44K in the stolen Gleick emails is half of the 88k for the five year project from the independent donor arranged by Heatland. He’s the “anonymous donor” listed in the stolen Gleick emails is what I’m told. The other 44k half has not been funded. We are making do and the project will be a public open resource online when completed. Thanks to Gleick and his crime, the project was delayed a few months.

Watts declined to specify who this "independent donor" is, or exactly what "resource" he's providing. Given his recent prominence in the news, this is relevant.

He adds:

Tread lightly, and be very careful what you write. I have a low tolerance level for your smear attempts, and I won’t tolerate any more.

I do not believe that communicating facts, as reported to (and by) me, to be "smear attempts."

Mooney Review: Abuse the Authority of Science

Ari Schulman, senior editor of The New Atlantis, has an interesting and hard-hitting review of Chris Mooney's recent book in the Wall Street Journal.

I've written earlier about the bald nonsense behind Mooney's thesis. I still believe his writing is a perversion of science, for purely political purposes. And -- since science is the most powerful (and successful) philosophy we have for understanding the world -- it is a dangerously deception basis for proclaiming political superiority (and I've never seen any evidence that Mooney understands even the basics of science).

Mooney's writings are as blind, and and dangerous, as anything Mark Steyn has written. It's just that most people who read this blog like what he says, politically. That's not enough for me.

You should read all of Schulman's review, but his conclusion is particularly relevant:

Central to that narrative, and to both of these books, is the practice of claiming that science simply says that one side of a political argument is right. Such claims typically misrepresent partial scientific understanding and invoke the authority of science as a cover for moral, philosophical and political premises that have not been argued or accepted. And this practice gets to the root of our science problem. What makes science special is that its claims don't rest on authority but are available for anyone to rigorously question and verify. Yet there are far too many scientific advances today for anyone to know them all, and most are impractical for nonscientists to replicate. Thus we must place our trust in scientific authority. But when science is invoked as the final word on claims for which it obviously isn't, it subverts this very authority. What results is a general public distrust—irrational but in a sense reasonable—of science, providing grounds for people to resist findings that undermine their beliefs. Books written with the transparent aim of satiating the partisan palate may be as inevitable as politics itself, but the ones that abuse the authority of science to do so make worse the very problem they claim to be fighting.

There are no easy answers. Political writers who latch onto science as a way of forcing their politics forward are as dangerous as writers who utilize any device, and frankly, they should be tossed out onto their ear with just as much disgust and just as much force.

And be sure to spit in their direction as you throw them. Or at least right after.

Who is Paying Anthony Watts?

Who exactly is paying Anthony Watts, and for what?

On 9/17 I wrote him, and asked

"Are you receiving any payments now from the Heartland Institute -- say, in the last 12 months If so, how much, and for what?

He replied, just a few minutes later:

"No, the 44,000 in Jan 2012 published by Gleick in his stolen emails came from an independent donor, the only thing direct from Heartland was a speaking fee of $800 for the Chicago May conference (the same as all speakers to over [sic] their three days away from the office) and reimbursement for travel. 

and he added, a minute later,

BTW that special Climate Reference Network project other half has not been funded. We are making do with what was provided."

Watts didn't say who this "independent donor" was, and actually I didn't know that he had received any money all for for data presentation (?) from the Heartland Institute (?).

Is there data being presented somewhere?

I've asked for more details.

Even Romney's Supporters Don't Know Why They Support Him

In the Sarasota crowd, I spoke with Billy Murphy, a retiree holding a poster board with the hand-lettered message: “NO REDISTRIBUTION TO FREELOADERS.” Murphy, an avowed foe of President Obama, will support Romney — but he does not know why. “He hasn’t really told the people yet what he’s gonna do,” Murphy said. “We need to know.” Noting Murphy’s sign, I suggested that he must, at least, agree with Romney’s criticism of the 47 percent of Americans who pay no federal income taxes and expect government handouts. “I don’t know,” Murphy said, suddenly sheepish. “I’m one of the 47 percent. I’m on Social Security.”

-- Dana Milbank, Washington Post, today

Obama's Accomplishments, and Why I Won't Vote for Him

Under President Obama:
* 3.76 million private sector jobs since July 09.
* 4.63 million since Feb 2010.

Osama Bin Laden dead.
The Iraq War finished.
(Yet, yes, the Afghan War still in effect. What a stupid waste.)

$7,000,000,000,000 in wealth created in the stock market. (Dick Cheney: "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter.")

* The numbers of uninsured dropping for the first time since forever.
* Yet health care delivered via the private market still suffering devastating increases.... Which Romney doesn't have a clue how to solve. (Hint: it won't be via the so-called 'free market.')

* Gas prices below the Bush years: 11% below their peak of national average peak of $4.32/gallon on 7/17/08, when adjusted for inflation via the CPI [author's calculations]. (Not that Presidents' have much influence over the global oil market anyway.)

Smaller government. (21,000 fewer federal government employees since July 2009.)

And the problem is where exactly? Especially with a bumbling fool in the other party, a cossetted liar who understands nothing about the lives of you and me, who has on compassion, no higher goal than being elected President.

...And yet, I won't be voting for Obama.... He is just as dependent on the rotting influence of big-money as is the other guy, and this has (already) ruined our democracy. My vote doesn't count (especially since I do not live in a swing state) -- your's doesn't either. Money counts for far more. The only recourse is a protest vote.

UAH Temperature Anomaly at mid-month

At the middle of the month, my Monkey-Poo Model of the UAH lower troposphere measurement shows a September anomaly of 0.47 C -- down from my premature estimate of 0.59 C earlier in the month, but still very high.

It would be the 10th-warmest month in their almost-34 years of records, and the 2nd-warmest September after 2010's 0.48 C. But there's another two weeks to go.

According to UAH, the last 15 years have warmed at 0.05 C/decade, with a statistical significance (of being greater than zero) of 93%. Somewhere in all this, though, is undoubtedly a 11 yr 4 month interval, or 9y8m, or something, that will somehow disprove that the 2-dimensional surface on which we live (which, strictly speaking, can't hold any heat anyway, being two-dimensional) isn't warming.

A Half Tanker of Iron

“Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

-- John Martin, oceanographer, from a July 1988 lecture at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute on  iron fertilization of the ocean.

The CharlesH Problem

I am still not home -- still in Massachusetts after a great week at WHOI, now visiting some good, old friends from my years of living in New England, the best kind of friends. So I'm barely trying to keep up with email, let alone  blogging.

But still arguments are going on in the comments. Some of it is very misguided, simply full of untruths. I think the most depressing part of the climate debate is the vast number of people who know no science at all -- who clearly, obviously know no science -- but who have no hesitation about speaking up and spreading their ignorance all across this blog and many others, just because they think they are entitled to have an opinion.

Frankly, they are not. There was once a time, even within my lifetime, when people who knew nothing knew that they knew nothing, and didn't pretend that they knew something. For some reason I really do not understand, that has changed, at least in the U.S.

I see a lot of comments here in that vein, and elsewhere, from a lot of commenters but especially from one who goes by "CharlesH" who, I believe, lives in Utah.

CharlesH has slick and easy answers to every climate question. I'm not going to link to them all here -- frankly, it's not worth my time to do the linking. His answers are invariably simplistic, which sometimes even he admits.

If you follow climate blogs -- if you still waste your time following climate blogs -- you probably see lots of such commenters. Places like WUWT or Steve Goddard are rife with them -- people who clearly know very little science, but who somehow believe they are saving the world from the despair of socialism, the rebirth of Naziism, the systematic murder of Leninism, the vast intellectually vapid sinkhole of two people somewhere, anywhere, talking together about trying to make the world a slightly better place.

Has cleaning up the world ever been a bad thing?

I really think some people think this, always, of course, from the front lines of their easy chair.

Perhaps we need a decade of true suffering -- I mean REAL hardship -- to break them of their idiocy. I'm just barely old enough to perhaps die in such a decade, but if that's what it really takes....

Anyway, I'm rambling.

CharlesH wrote, on 9/10:
>> Sea levels have risen at a ~3mm/yr rate during the last and previous centuries (about 1ft/century) <<

First of all, his comments come to me with the name field "I am Coyote." Strangely, that is also the name of a weird blogger in Oregon named Ted Piccolo, nwrepublican@aol.com, from what was (is?) called the NW Republican Blog. Weird.

In any case, this supposed fact is not true. Sea level has not been 3 mm/yr over the last several centuries. Read the papers (Ted/CharlesH provides no supporting evidence, because he's not the type to care about facts), or.... last week at WHOI, a graduate student talked to us about -- showed us -- some stumps from an ancient forest near Falmouth, MA, on the beach, that was uncovered two years ago in a Nor'easter [and, oh, how I miss those].

He drilled into the stumps and has been using the results to reconstruct massive hurricanes that come onshore in Cape Cod over the last millenium. And his answer -- and I asked him this, as did other people there -- was that sea level was rising about 0.5 mm/yr for most of the previous millenium.

So I'd like proof of "CharlesH's" claim that sea level rise was 3 mm/yr for several centuries. Even better, I'd like proof of essentially all his claims, because frankly I think he's full of shit.

He says a lot of stuff, but never proves any of it.

I'm getting tired of that. I mean, this is America -- he's free to be an idiot if he wants to. But I'm tired of trying to disprove nonsense. I'm tired of the idiots, the no-nothings, the stupid Americans (and they are always Americans, aren't they?) who know nothing but broadcast their know-nothingness all across the planet.

Never under their real name, of course. They're not THAT brave.

Idiots never are.

The "CharlesH problem" threatens the world. We now have 0.15-0.2 C/decade surface warming, and the people who really understand this are deeply, deeply concerned. Some of those who understand it the best are worried the most, and now -- behind the scenes that few see -- are contemplating serious geoengineering measures to solve the carbon problem.

They are meeting and experimenting and writing papers, some of which I'll be interviewing on as soon as I get back to Oregon. Stratospheric aerosols, ocean iron fertilization, marine cloud brightening -- they are getting their ducks in a row. And it's not a big secret -- read Eli Kintish's recent book Hack the Planet to learn more.

The scientists who know something -- the non-CharlesH's of the world, in other words -- are very worried. They know we can't keep adding greenhouses gases to the planet, at our current rate, without significant warming. Geologic warming. Warming unlike anything ever seen before.

We are at 395 ppm. Compare that to Ice Age charts.

But CharlesH, this idiot, this -- I'm sorry -- this fucking idiot who sits home and probably watches America's Idol in the evening, who has probably never read a science paper in his life, really, truly, somehow honestly thinks he knows better than all the professional, study-deep-into-the-night, sweat-the-data, devote-their-lives scientists about all this.

What can you possibly say about such a person? This person -- CharlesH -- now threatens civilization.

Think about that -- ignorance from Tea Party types in rural Utah threatens the well-being of the entire human race.

What can you say?

I don't know. I realize I'm just one tiny, barely read blog. I've though of blocking him -- but I can't block the other ten thousand idiots across the blogosphere, the Anthony Watts' and the Steve Goddards' and all their minions.

They are too many, and too stupid. So what to do about them?

I don't know. Donald Brown, the philosopher at Penn State who has been writing about the ethics of climate change for well over a decade -- I interviewed him in the early 2000s -- thinks they are perhaps guilty of crimes against humanity.

Are they? Are Anthony Watts and Marc Morano and Tom Nelson and Steve Goddard smart enough to be guilty of climate crimes?

I think so. You can't simply claim that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas.

I think their crimes will be obvious in about a decade.

When I profiled Michael Mann for Scientific American, he said he thought it would eventually be illegal to deny climate change. I had doubts about that, but maybe.

It's obvious (barely) they're not smart enough to be so evil, even if clearly they are misguided. Morano gets a quarter-mil a year from his bought-and-sold employer, Watts getting who-knows-what from the Heartland types for presenting data, Goddard happy to just get some hits in his old age, Chris Horner a complete tool, James Inhofe a man who will go down in history as perhaps the biggest fool of all time -- the hoax is from *him*, not from those who he claims, but even he doesn't realize it, that's how big a tool he is.

Can we have an accounting, please?

None of them has much of a science background, if any. I mean, please.

And CharlesH, who clearly knows no science either.

But on the shoulders of these idiots, fools, and incoherent minds our future seems to turn, if only just a bit, if only in the blogosphere. And they are probably proud of this, somehow.

But the vast majority of people -- like 98 percent, you know -- have no idea any of this goes on at all.

They just know it's getting warming, slowly, continually. Drought is here. This year.

Surely, even the conservative, fundamentalist farmers in Kansas, who has lost much of their corn, have to wonder. If only late at night, even if they will never admit it. They, too, must wonder about greenhouse gases. (But don't worry, American taxpayers will be making them whole.)

--
Anyway, I should stop.

I'm tired.

I've had a long week, and am a little out of the loop.

No oracle, for sure -- but them who is? No one.

I'm sure the Moranos and Watts and CharlesH's think they're just as sure as I think I'm sure.

In their minds, I'm the idiot, not them. Me.

But them, still, I think: CO2 is a greenhouse gas. 5 molecules per 10,000 trap more heat than 4 per 10,000, or even three.

On that small divide, our future lies. One molecule out of 10,000.

Who would have though it? Certainly not CharlesH.

I'll be flying home tomorrow, moving Wednesday, setting up for a couple of days. Making nice to my cats, who have been boarded for over a week. Sophie, especially, will take some effort -- she has deep feelings about my absences.

I just hope I can get my WiFi to work again. It always seems like a crapshoot, and frankly, I don't even know if I remember the password.