Warren Zevon Before Dying

Enjoy every sandwich.

La Nina to End Soon, then ENSO-Neutral

The climate gods may finally be giving ENSO a break. The Climate Prediction Center at the University of Maryland says the current La Nina should last a couple more months, then the gods will deliver [viz. the Center predicts] a neutral ENSO. After the last 3-4 years maybe even they need a rest. It will be interesting to finally see what global temperatures will do when there is no ENSO going on. Will it stay as warm as the last three years [barring the current La Nina], or will temperatures dip some? Only the gods know for sure, and they're plenty unhappy with humans messing with their climate toy.

Update on the Pythagorean Theorem

Tinariwen (+IO:I) - Sastanàqqàm

Is Trump Starting to Lose His Mind?

Trump had MRIs a few weeks ago and claimed to not know why his doctors were doing that. He said to ask them.

MRIs aren't usually part of a customary physical.

CBS News:
President Trump underwent "advanced imaging" of his abdomen and cardiovascular system for "preventative" reasons, the White House said Monday, one day after the president told reporters that he had "no idea" what body parts his MRI covered during his October physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Given what he said today about Somalians, a fair and necessary question is whether he is starting to enter some degree of senility. It was so shocking and revolting, as if he just can't hold his reptilian side in any more. There are reports he fell asleep in the meeting, that he's fallen asleep in other meetings, and brutal honesty like this can be a symptom of dementia, it seems, as the person loses some control over his/her body. This was odd even for Trump.

 
And we have 3+ more years of this? That's really worries me, about the decisions he will make if he's unable to control himself and think, act and talk rationally.

 
That could be a deep nightmare. And not just for the US, I'm afraid.

My Electricity Usage as a Function of Temperature

Here's my monthly electricity usage, in watts, plotted against the average monthly local temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit:

My base electricity rate is 7.54¢/kWh, but including all fees and taxes it averages 11.9¢/kWh. Not too bad. Lots of hydropower from river dams in the Pacific Northwest.

(100¢ = $1)

On average I use about 25 kWh/day, or for the year 7,500-10,000 kWh. Actual  average power consumption is 996 watts--that's the average amount of power I'm consuming all the time. 

The annual average daily temperature is 55°F. (daily temperature = average of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.) The maximum month was 76°F, and the minimum was 39°F. (monthly temperature = average of daily temperatures.)

So above about 65°F, when I don't use any heating and only a fan for intermittent cooling (no A/C), my electricity usage is a constant--enough to keep the refrigerator running, lights and computer, and cooking. That comes to about 400 kWh/month, or 550 watts. Then as it gets colder I turn on the heat (baseboard electric) and the electricity increase is close to linear with temperature (with a negative slope). 

The slope of the part of the graph below 65°F is about -68 kWh/°F, but it's not perfectly linear. 

As it get colder my monthly electricity cost increases by about $4.30/(-°F).

Here's my annualized (12-month total) electricity usage since June 2020:

Now it's time to turn the lights off and go to bed. Goodnight. 

Where We Are on Climate

I saw this on a climate change forum on Reddit and think it's an accurate, succinct summary of where I find myself right now. Apparently others too.

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Trends in US Energy Consumption

The annual average energy use of Americans has dropped noticeably since 1973--about 25%. One-fourth.

kW=kilowatts

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Yet total energy consumption has only recently leveled off.

TW=terawatts

It looks like we finally got the enormous energy consumption of new babies controlled around 2005. 

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(That's a joke.)

Berkeley Earth's October, and Crimes Against Humanity

Berkeley Earth's global temperature for October. Above 1.5°C. It looks still in the running for the warmest year yet. Not that the fossil fuel companies who ran COP30 care. 

I found COP30 to be pretty depressing. It's causing me to somewhat give up on viewing potential solutions to climate change, and now just watching it in a detached, intellectual way just to see the numbers and what happens and how bad it will get, if I live long enough for that. I don't see a solution as possible--there is too much money in the game from fossil fuel interests and other corporations, and they control politics in the US especially. That's not going to stop in this uber-corrupt country. They flooded COP30 and it almost seems the conference was arranged for them. It's disgusting and they should have been banned from the being there. Why weren't they? Cowardice. Wouldn't make any practical difference but it might have sent just a little sign (that they could then promptly set alight). 

It's a near impossible problem to solve anyway--a "wicked problem"--and it seems impossible to make meaningful, definite progress. A decline in the trendline of positive CO2e emissions is not much to hang a hat on. Why bother not eating beef? I never ate much, it's not healthy, I can't afford much now anyway except cheap cuts. I don't need it but a steak is nice every once in awhile. It doesn't matter if I don't eat it. It's impossible to see my decisions about that propagating back through the beef industry to affecting emissions of methane and CO2 and a temperature decline. 

I was mostly interested in the science of global warming, the physics, the way the atmosphere works. I have opinions for sure but I've never been an activist, for anything. Partly from being shy and introverted, but I just can't connect tiny, little actions to the big picture. The big picture is just too big. 

Executives in the fossil fuel companies, and prominent deniers, are guilty of crimes against humanity. They would stand trial in a decent, courageous, spiritually clean world. Trump first but many, many others should be prosecuted too.

Our House

The house I grew up in, southwestern Pennsylvania.

Accidental Renaissance Image

A photograph taken just after the end of the recent New York Rangers vs Detroit Red Wings hockey game. The donnybrook started because a Red Wing shot the puck into the empty net a half-second after the final horn sounded, a major faux pas in hockey. Not unlike the Battle of Agincourt.

JMA: October25 was 3rd-warmest Oct.

The Japan Meteorological Agency says October was the third-warmest October in their records, which start in 1891.

2025 is almost certainly going to be the third-warmest year in their record, after 2024 (anomaly = 0.63°C relative to the 1991-2020 average) and 2023 (0.54°C). Through Oct25 this year is 0.48°C. 

Their 30-year trend is +0.22°C/decade. 20-year trend is +0.29°C/decade (that's 1.0°F in just 20 years).

Their total warming = 1.06°C since 1891. (1.91°F.)

Now that the US government is (unfortunately) open again, we might get numbers from NOAA and NASA soon.

You Lost, You Lost, You're Next

The Bugs Are Coming

I saw two articles in the last few days about bugs appearing where they have never been before, due to, at least in part, climate change:

• a women who says she hasn't recently been off Long Island in the US somehow acquired the viral disease chikungunya (NY Times, free article), "the first such case of local transmission ever recorded in New York."
• it's been confirmed that a mosquito has been in Iceland, the first.

Of course these could be one-offs. But it's the kind of thing scientists have talked about for decades. We'll see....

PS: Yes I used the word "bug" to describe a virus. Colloquial usage.

Chinese vs US Wind

Paul Krugman: "In his rambling speech at the United Nations, Donald Trump insisted that China isn’t making use of wind power: 'They use coal, they use gas, they use almost anything, but they don’t like wind.' I don’t know where Trump gets his misinformation — maybe the same sources telling him that Portland is in flames. But here’s the reality:" (link)

Krugman also gives this chart, regarding the US:

Grok says the average US home uses 1,232 watts of electricity, so the above projection change of about 40 GW is enough electricity for over 32 million homes! That's about 24% (!!) of Grok's estimated 134.3 M occupied households in the US in 2030. 

One-quarter of US homes.

I didn't realize Trump was fowling things up THIS badly....

Shelley's "The Cloud"

From the dedication page of Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey, 2nd edition (2006) by Wallace and Hobbs, dedicated to co-author Peter V. Hobbs.

2025 Will Likely be Third-Warmest Year

The last three years of monthly temperatures, via Copernicus. 

This year should easily be the third-warmest year in their record (which goes back to 1940; not sure how they got their 1850-1900 baseline). But probably no higher, even though this September saw a significant increase from August. 

The 2025 year-to-date average is 1.46°C relative to 1850-1900, so just below 1.5°C. September was 1.47°C. If the last three months of the year average 1.613̅ °C higher, the yearly average will be above 1.5°C. (That quasi-bar above the 3 means it's a repeating number ad infinitum; the exact number is 121/75.)

For comparison, 2023 averaged 1.48°C and 2024 averaged 1.60°C. Another year above 1.5°C would definitely be newsworthy, especially as 2025 has basically been ENSO-neutral. And then it would be the second-warmest year.  

PS: GISS and NOAA won't be updating their monthly numbers due to the US government shutdown. Not sure if they will even be allowed after Trump's anti-climate change orders. Same for PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume. NSIDC sea ice extent & area numbers did arrive for September shortly after October started.

the UK (for now)

Antarctica Sea Ice Width is Decreasing

Of course it is. I recently heard that it had drawn 100 km closer to shore. Maybe it was 80 km. I thought I'd try to estimate that.

I'll assume Antarctica is a perfect circle, as well as the sea ice. So the sea ice is an annulus with width w, the distance between its outer and inner radii. Then it's real easy to calculate w of the sea ice from its area (not extent), 13.72 Mkm², and the average radius (R) of Antarctica, =sqrt(A_ant/pi):

where "si" is sea ice. Using average annual area, this gives the following graph:

I spent a lot of time trying to make a pretty graph on datawrapper.de, but it was too complicated to get exactly what I want. So this will have to do.

In 2023 it looked like the average width had shrunk by about 75 km, but by 2024, while perhaps an anomaly, reduced that to 50-60 km. Still good enough for approximate work.

HadCET At a Record

Just a short note: the year-to-date HadCET average monthly temperature (Hadley Central England Temperature (data)), is at a record high through September, tied with 2022. 

There's also a tie for second third place, between 2023 and 2024.  

In other words, the four warmest HadCET year-to-date averages, through Septembers, have been the last four years.

The record is now 367 years long.

That's really quite remarkable.

PS: The 50-year linear trend of HadCET is 0.32°C/decade. Also, the 10-year moving average is at a record high.