Give it time. The long term trend is still up (slope = 0.01 Mkm2 per year). I'm not saying the trend can't change. I just don't see evidence of it yet.
My guess (and I wouldn't put any money on it) is that it will have rebounded by 2021.
(I should probably review my last comment on this topic to make sure I'm not moving goalposts, but I can't find it...)
2 comments:
Give it time. The long term trend is still up (slope = 0.01 Mkm2 per year). I'm not saying the trend can't change. I just don't see evidence of it yet.
My guess (and I wouldn't put any money on it) is that it will have rebounded by 2021.
(I should probably review my last comment on this topic to make sure I'm not moving goalposts, but I can't find it...)
Probably you're right. On the other hand, the 2nd order fit to the data is now concave down. R^2(quad fit) = 0.14 vs R^2(linear fit)=0.10.
(But then, the quad fit has another free parameter, so it's usually slightly better.)
On the other hand, neither seems a good model for whatever the sea ice is doing....
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