If you're tired of people saying they're 'done with Covid', that they want to 'move on' from the pandemic, get 'back to normal'... even as 3,000 people die on a daily basis & while ignoring Long Covid, this angry monologue from me tonight... is for you:pic.twitter.com/045qQMuXNO
— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) February 10, 2022
Thursday, February 10, 2022
Some Sense on COVID
I think this guy makes a lot of sense. I read someone who said we've had great success in running a marathon but why stop before we've finished? Case rates and death rates are still high -- falling (case rates in the US, anyway), but still high -- in fact, still higher than any peak of a previous surge. Deaths are just slightly lower than the peak of the second surge. I get that everyone is tired of the pandemic, but quitting precautions too early will only prolong it.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
30 comments:
"...quitting precautions too early will only prolong it."
I'm not sure that's true. Precautions like masking and social distancing are meant to "flatten the curve". That is, they are specifically intended to prolong the wave so that we don't have all of the impacts at once.
Paradoxically, there are scenarios where interventions, while they do reduce the number if ICU cases at a particular time, end up causing more deaths overall: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/10/08/the-long-term-covidsim-predictions-from-report-9/
It's not quite as clear cut as Mehdi Hasan portrays it, and with broad availability of N95 masks, vulnerable or concerned people can remain protected even as others unmask.
@Layzej
"That is, they are specifically intended to prolong the wave"
No, they are not. They were intended to shorten the wave, and to have a much smaller overall case number. The
"Paradoxically, there are scenarios where interventions[...]"
This is hilarious. The source you refer to explicitly states that these scenarios are completely unrealistic and may be the artifact of the methods of an early study they were analyzing (Report 9 from March 2020). It also says that at the moment of writing (Oct. of 2020) the real situation that had unfolded was much different. Actually, attp conveys his inconvenience as to how this study had been used by the various denier groups.
Layzej: "That is, they are specifically intended to prolong the wave"
Balázs: "No, they are not. They were intended to shorten the wave, and to have a much smaller overall case number. The"
Are you sure? Look at any one of these illustrations. Which one is longer? the flattened curve or the spike? https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=what+does+it+mean+to+flatten+the+curve
Do all these sources have it backwards?
According to Wikipedia: "Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as hand washing, social distancing, isolation and disinfection reduce the daily infections, therefore flattening the epidemic curve. A successfully flattened curve spreads health care needs over time and the peak of hospitalizations under the health care capacity line."
Balázs: "The source you refer to explicitly states that these scenarios are completely unrealistic and may be the artifact of the methods of an early study they were analyzing (Report 9 from March 2020). It also says that at the moment of writing (Oct. of 2020) the real situation that had unfolded was much different."
True. It's a model result, and all models are wrong. It's still worth considering that there are scenarios where interventions, while they do reduce the number if ICU cases at a particular time, end up causing more deaths overall. Otherwise ATTP wouldn't have bothered publishing.
The initial goal was to flatten the curve to allow the medical system to cope until we could get vaccinated. What is the goal now? It's worth asking.
" What is the goal now? "
On an individual level, stay alive.
The UK is following the same Gadarine Swine approach as the US. It is driven by the same urge to return to a pretend normality regardless of the reality.
Very human, that. If you pretend that the problem has gone away, the sheer force of your belief will make it so.
Don't Look Up!
In fact Report 9 did quite well.
Tucked away on page 18 is a graph showing the long term pattern they expected two years ago. Multiple waves over at least two years.
Everyone else was saying it would be over by Christmas!
"On an individual level, stay alive."
Individuals are free to wear a mask and social distance if they are at risk or otherwise concerned. The question is, why mandate masking and social distancing?
What's the goal?
I wonder how well it would work if a governor stated that "We will lift restrictions as soon as vaccination rate is above X%". It should put some pressure on people to get vaccinated.
@Layzej
"Are you sure?"
Yes, I'm sure. Your reference to a wikipedia page is not "evidence" per se, and if you check other sources (I remember dozens and dozens of papers etc about it in the early days) most of them expected a much quicker recovery. Actually, the most successful curve flattening happened in China, and the pandemic was over for them a few months later, by March (with later "outbreaks" that would be considered below the noise level at other places like a few hundred cases over 3 weeks in this and this city).
@Entropic man
The "problem" with Report 9 is not multiple waves (that were actually widely predicted from the beginning) but that under some unrealistic conditions it predicted a greater number of dead with the usual prevention measures than without. Actually, there were other problems with its models as well, please read what attp wrote about it. Anyway, these predictions were used and abused by the usual right wing rags as justification against anti pandemic measures.
"What's the goal?"
To stop the pandemic. This is not manageable at the individual level.
"In fact Report 9 did quite well."
Report 9 says the optimal strategy is: "combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease"
Sounds sensible. The latter half can be accomplished with communication and education.
No mandates required. Let people know the risks, and the remedies available to them.
I remember dozens and dozens of papers etc about it in the early days
Please present one. I'm happy to be educated on this.
most of them expected a much quicker recovery
How did that work out?
"What's the goal?" To stop the pandemic. This is not manageable at the individual level.
Is there any evidence whatsoever that masking and social distancing will stop the pandemic? Please provide it. Again, I'm happy to be educated on this. My understanding is that the goal was to flatten the curve until we had a vaccine.
"I wonder how well it would work if a governor stated that "We will lift restrictions as soon as vaccination rate is above X%". It should put some pressure on people to get vaccinated."
That sounds reasonable. I'm not sure where I'd put the bar, but I imagine many countries have already pole vaulted it. Mine (Canada) included.
Canada has had some success with this strategy: https://toronto.citynews.ca/2021/05/14/restrictions-will-lift-in-canada-75-percent-20-percent-vaccinated/
Layzej
"Sounds sensible. The latter half can be accomplished with communication and education.
No mandates required. Let people know the risks, and the remedies available to them. "
That assumes most people are rational agents capable of choosing the optimum solution.
The USA and the UK demonstrably do not meet that standard.
@Layzej
"Please present one. I'm happy to be educated on this."
Check the talk page at the wikipedia article. "I think, that the graph should show LONGER period of recovery, if it's flattened." This is from April 2020. This is exactly what you claim, but this was not self evident at that time.
"How did that work out?"
"Is there any evidence whatsoever that masking and social distancing will stop the pandemic? Please provide it."
Glad you asked that. Please check China. It worked out pretty well for them. They stopped the first, unexpected, and sudden outbreak with these simple, common sense measures in essentially 3 months. FYI I was shocked when I realized that we (the "West", that was supposed to know it better) didn't do what China (and to a lesser extent, South Korea) did. We fucked it up.
I remember the first time when a friend of mine talked about the "herd immunity" bullshit that was spreading around. What you claim about why the "flatten the curve" fails is essentially this herd immunity argument of those early days.
Anyway, for a lot of people, this "flatten the curve" meant reducing the multiplication of the virus with a shorter and lower number of infected and dead. Actually, the reduction was perceptible in other infections as well (like the seasonal flu), so even those half measures in the West worked.
"Again, I'm happy to be educated on this."
Now you are educated. Hope you can learn.
Balázs: this was not self evident at that time.
I doubt that's true, but either way, it should be clear now.
Balázs: "Please check China."
They're still dealing with it in China. It's worse than ever in fact:
"From Thursday, gatherings of more than two people in public are banned, while no more than two households can mix in private. Violators face a fine of at least HK$5,000 ($642).
Many health experts say the curbs are unlikely to stop the highly infectious omicron variant from spreading. Daily cases jumped on Wednesday to more than 1,000, the highest on record and up from just 14 three weeks ago. Researchers from the University of Hong Kong say the figure may reach 28,000 in March."
The anti covid precautions silliness has spread to France.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60359061
Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have also dropped most or all restrictions.
@Entripci Man,
What would your ideal end game look like? Balázs prefers the Chinese approach of indefinite rolling lockdowns wherever cases emerge. I'd like to educate folks about the real risks and options to mitigate, then let people make their own decisions (rational or otherwise).
I'm guessing you'd prefer something in between? What does your Covid end game look like?
Lockdowns, covid passports etc are necessary because far too many people are unable to police themselves.
I would like to see us ease off to the point that those infected test and isolate themselves. With high infection rates continuing masks are still necessary, until covid levels drop to flu levels.
With new strains appearing regularly, the end point might be to ease and tighten as new strains come through. Strategically, we need to double the size of the Health Service. It can shown that it can cope with a surge of infections or normal operations, but not both.
In the UK the standard used to be 80% bed occupancy, which allowed staff to work within their capacity and left room for contingencies like Covid.
Then the accountants went for maximum financial efficiency. They cut staff and wards, increasing bed occupancy to 95% and overworking staff. With no margin, the first pandemic to come through overwhelmed us.
Some of that sounds reasonable to me.
"until covid levels drop to flu levels"
Do you think that's ever likely to happen? If so, how long do you anticipate we'll need to wait?
If we keep getting one new infectious variant per year, this could go on indefinately.
Currently self-isolating with omicron (runny nose and cough, but nothing dramatic).
As of today Northern Ireland does not require anything, all precautions are now advisory.
Unfortunately, as I just found out, it hasn't gone away. I intend to continue mask wearing, distancing and other precautions until the number of local cases drops close to zero.
"Currently self-isolating with omicron (runny nose and cough, but nothing dramatic)."
Yikes. Get well!
"I intend to continue mask wearing, distancing and other precautions until the number of local cases drops close to zero."
Me too. We don't really have a choice due to mandates, but if given the choice I'd probably avoid crowds altogether when it waxes, and enjoy the times (with appropriate precautions) when it wanes.
@Layzej
"They're still dealing with it in China. It's worse than ever in fact"
Actually, this is Hong Kong (treated as a different country with a different administration), but anyway, their case counts are still below the noise level of the West.
"Daily new coronavirus cases exceeded 2,000 for the first time on Monday; on Thursday, 6,116 new cases were reported."
"Hong Kong hospitals are at 90% capacity and some have had to treat patients outdoors for lack of room inside."
"Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam shows no sign of retreating from the “zero-COVID" stance"
After two years of being a global Covid success story, China now appears to be struggling. In the Xi’an lockdown, national outrage has followed grocery shortages and the case of a woman losing her unborn baby in her eighth month of pregnancy after being denied medical attention for hours.
Not everyone agrees a large-scale outbreak would be as disastrous as the state makes it out to be. In fact, there are many steps China can take to mitigate the damage done to vulnerable communities and the health care system as it eases out of a zero-tolerance strategy, experts argue. Such measures include introducing more effective vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, making more accessible antivirals available for use, and educating the public on the health risks posed by the virus. “If you have these measures in place, you can significantly reduce the risk to make it manageable,” Huang says. The cost of maintaining zero-tolerance, he adds, will only increase over time. “You have to give up that strategy. You can’t expect the virus to disappear.” - The End Game of China’s Zero-Covid Policy Nightmare
@Layzej
"China now appears to be struggling"
China has now an extreme routine in these things. This is the "testing a city of 10m in a weekend" like routine. There may be hiccups but their overall performance is excellent.
"Not everyone agrees a large-scale outbreak would be as disastrous as the state makes it out to be."
This is exactly the argument that is used in the West and the result is disastrous.
Actually, the article you've referenced is has the title format "China xxx. But at what cost?". This format is of course already a meme, for good reasons. xxx can be anything (even just vaguely) positive, and there's an endless stream of articles written in the past two decades with this kinda title.
How disastrous has it been for Denmark? They had 43,000 cases/day when restrictions were lifted on Feb 1. Now, three weeks later, they have 32,000 cases/day and falling. That has translated into 37 deaths/day. It may amount to a couple thousand deaths when all is said and done.
That is equivalent to the amount of death they experience from the average flu season. No-one batted an eye when they decided not to lock the population down during the 2018 flu season.
And of course, the Danes are still able to take precautions against both Flu and Covid as they see fit. N95 mask + vaccine are great protection and available to anyone who wants them.
Alternatively their government could lock them all down for their own protection.
Meanwhile, in China, while no-one has died of Covid (in spite of >10,000 cases in the last 20 months), there are ~1 million surplus deaths. That means their restrictions themselves have cost the lives of 1 million people even though the disease has a 0.0% case fatality rate in China.
It's no wonder:
“More than 20 million people are under lockdown, restricted to their homes amid concerns over supplies of food and other daily necessities. Factories have been closed, affecting supplies of computer chips and other products. Volkswagen shut down two factories in Tianjin. In the northern city of Xi’an, a lockdown was imposed on its 14 million people since Dec. 23."
It's possible that China's numbers are not to be trusted, and the 1,000,000 deaths are actually a result of Covid, not their restrictions. In that case 0.069% of their population died of Covid in spite of their draconian policies. Denmark lost 0.075% of their population to Covid and lived in relative freedom. They now have no restrictions whatsoever. China has no end in sight for lockdowns.
I use Denmark because it was given earlier as "An Argument for Keeping Mask Mandates"
Post a Comment