I learned recently that on April 13, 2029 Apophis will swing by beneath Earth's communication satellites (which I think are at GEO, 35,786 km in altitude). It will be visible with the naked eye for some hours. When it was discovered in 2004 there was some concern it would impact Earth the next time it came around, on Easter 2036. But in 2021 that was ruled out.
Saturday, February 15, 2025
2% Chance of Catastrophe in 2032
The asteroid 2024 YR4 -- which is different than Apophis -- has a 2% chance of impacting Earth on Dec 12, 2032. Those odds are up from the previous 1.3%. That seems large, but they say the odds will almost surely shrink as its orbital parameters are better specified. Besides it's only 40-90 m in diameter, enough to screw up your day, week and maybe month, but probably not much longer than that, unless you're underneath it or within X km. (X ~ 250 km, I'm guessing, based on nothing.)
I learned recently that on April 13, 2029 Apophis will swing by beneath Earth's communication satellites (which I think are at GEO, 35,786 km in altitude). It will be visible with the naked eye for some hours. When it was discovered in 2004 there was some concern it would impact Earth the next time it came around, on Easter 2036. But in 2021 that was ruled out.
I learned recently that on April 13, 2029 Apophis will swing by beneath Earth's communication satellites (which I think are at GEO, 35,786 km in altitude). It will be visible with the naked eye for some hours. When it was discovered in 2004 there was some concern it would impact Earth the next time it came around, on Easter 2036. But in 2021 that was ruled out.
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