Thursday, August 21, 2025

About Today's Earlier Graph

BTW, there are some interesting comments underneath Climate Town's post with the graph I just posted

1) NASA's data starts in 1880, not 1850, so I don't understand their graph. I also don't see how they got 1.4°C of total warming--GISS's data from 1880 gives (with a linear fit) 1.20°C. 

For the second point, below, I found better data in the mentioned paper that the P-T warming lasted over about 60,000 years, not 100,000 years. I've made corrections below:

2) Of course, warming was very likely not linear during the P-T Event, as volcanic traps pumped out CO2. (CO2 rose from about 400 ppm to 2,500 ppm.) Warming took place over about 100,000 years according to this 2021 Nature Communications paper. There may have been "short-term" warming spikes that did some of the damage. Total global warming was about 8°C. That would give an average warming rate ~ 0.0008°C/decade, compared to 1880-2025's average linear rate of 0.082°C/decade. That's a factor of 100. (Linear rate over the last 30 years = 0.25°C/decade => a factor of 310.) Warming took place over about 60,000 years according to this 2021 Nature Communications paper. Total global warming was about 8°C. That would give an average warming rate ~ 0.0013°C/decade, compared to 1880-2025's average linear rate of 0.082°C/decade. That's a factor of 60. (Linear rate over the last 30 years = 0.25°C/decade => a factor of 190)

3) The extinction may not be all due to warming.

Reminder: The graph under consideration:

No comments: