From the Department of God-Can-Be-a-Mean-Bastard:

An Oregon father, who was walking across the country to tell others about his bullied, gay son who committed suicide, was himself struck and killed by a long-distance truck driver in Colorado who fell asleep.

Earlier this year a man who was dribbling a soccer ball to Brazil for the 2014 World Cup, to promote a charity that donates durable blue soccer balls to people in developing countries, was also struck and killed by a car near the Oregon coast. (No, he wasn't dribbling a soccer ball at the time.)

Their hearts were definitely in the right place, but man, walking long-distance along a big highway is just too risky. There's got to be a better way to draw attention to a cause.

UAH Data Has Killed the Pause

Some "Pause" -- UAH's record of the average temperture of the lower troposphere now shows 0.21°C (0.37°F) of warming over the last 15 years (=slope*interval).

Except it's not quite statistically significant. The SkS trend calculator gives a 15-year trend of 0.135 ± 0.217°C/decade (2σ), which is a statistical signfiicance of 79%, less than the canonical (and arbitrary) standard of 95%. The large uncertainty just shows that 15 years is too small of an interval to make statistically meaningful conclusions about trends. If the 15-yr trend uncertainty is 0.217°C/decade (2σ), the trend would need to be 0.213°C/decade for a statistical significance of 95% -- and the UAH record has had a 15-year trend of 0.213°C/decade or greater only 32% of the time. (Yes, I know that the uncertainty varies somewhat with the interval, but this estimate is good enough for blog work.)

The last 5 years are still the warmest 5 years in the UAH LT record:

New Careers Would Be Nice

From a commenter at the Washington Post:

The Value of Blue-Sky Research

"I hope this recognition of fundamental science will help raise awareness of the value of blue-sky research."

-- Peter Higgs, statement today after winning the Nobel Prize for Physics for his prediction of the Higgs boson

On the other hand, there is this, from Steven Weinberg in the New York Review of Books last year:

What really motivates elementary particle physicists is a sense of how the world is ordered—it is, they believe, a world governed by simple universal principles that we are capable of discovering. But not everyone feels the importance of this. During the debate over the SSC, I was on the Larry King radio show with a congressman who opposed it. He said that he wasn’t against spending on science, but that we had to set priorities. I explained that the SSC was going to help us learn the laws of nature, and I asked if that didn’t deserve a high priority. I remember every word of his answer. It was “No.”

CERN CLOUD Results Negative on Aerosol Formation

Here's an interesting and important result from the CLOUD experiment at CERN that bears directly on the Svensmark hypothesis: ionising radiation has a negligible influence on the formation rates of aerosols.

*******************************************
Source: CERN
Content: Press Release
Date Issued: 6 October 2013
*******************************************

CERN's CLOUD experiment shines new light on climate change

Geneva, 6 October 2013. In a paper published today in the journal Nature (http://dx.doi.org/, DOI number 10.1038/nature12663), the CLOUD experiment at CERN* reports a major advance towards solving a long-standing enigma in climate science: how do aerosols - tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the air - form in the atmosphere, and which gases are responsible? This is a key question in understanding the climate, since aerosols cause a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight and by seeding cloud droplets.

The CLOUD researchers made two key discoveries. Firstly, they found that minute concentrations of amine vapours combine with sulphuric acid to form aerosol particles at rates similar to those observed in the atmosphere. Then, using a pion beam from the CERN Proton Synchrotron, they found that ionising radiation such as the cosmic radiation that bombards the atmosphere from space has negligible influence on the formation rates of these particular aerosols.

"Thanks to CERN's expertise in materials, gas systems and ultra-high vacuum technologies," said CLOUD spokesperson Jasper Kirkby, "we were able to build a chamber with unprecedented cleanliness, allowing us to simulate the atmosphere and introduce minute amounts of various atmospheric vapours under carefully controlled conditions – in this case amines and sulphuric acid."

Amines are atmospheric vapours closely related to ammonia, and are emitted both from human activities such as animal husbandry, and from natural sources. Amines are responsible for odours emanating from the decomposition of organic matter that contains proteins. For example, the smell of rotten fish is due to trimethylamine. The CLOUD experiment's unique ultra-clean chamber allowed the collaboration to demonstrate that the extremely low concentrations of amines typically found in the atmosphere - a few parts per trillion by volume - are sufficient to combine with sulphuric acid to form highly stable aerosol particles at high rates.

The measured sensitivity of aerosol formation to amines came as a surprise, and points to a potentially significant climate cooling mechanism. Moreover, since amine scrubbing is likely to become an important technology for capturing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuelled power plants, this effect is likely to rise in future.

The CLOUD result adds another significant measurement in understanding the climate. But it does not rule out a role for cosmic radiation, nor does it offer a quick fix for global warming.

"This is the first time that atmospheric particle formation has been reproduced with complete knowledge of the participating molecules", said Kirkby. "However our measurements leave open the possibility that the formation of aerosols in the atmosphere may also proceed with other vapours, for which the effect of cosmic rays may be different. This is an important step forward, but we still have a long way to go before we fully understand the processes of aerosol formation and their effects on clouds and climate."

Treason, by Definition

How does this not apply to Congressional Republicans?

18 USC § 2384 - Seditious conspiracy
If two or more persons in any State or Territory, or in any place subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take, or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof, they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.

Writhing in its Internal Decision

"the space diaspora occurred as late capitalism writhed in its internal decision concerning whether to destroy Earth's biosphere or change its rules. Many argued for the destruction of the biosphere, as being the lesser of two evils."

-- Kim Stanley Robinson, 2312

WATERMARK Trailer

This looks like an interesting upcoming film. (Well, at least the subject is interesting and the music is dramatic.)



via Kottke

"He sees America as a crazy house..."

"But say a man does know. He sees the world as it is and he looks back thousands of years to see how it all come about. He watches the slow agglutination of capital and power and he sees its pinnacle today. He sees America as a crazy house... He sees a whole damn army of unemployed and billions of dollars and thousands of miles of land wasted... He sees how when people suffer just so much they get mean and ugly and something dies in them. But the main thing he sees is that the whole system of the world is built on a lie. And although it's as plain as the shining sun—the don't-knows have lived with that lie so long they just can't see it."

-- Carson McCullers, The Heart is a Lonely Hunter (1940)

Causes of Warming Since 1951

Speaking at the Royal Society, Thomas Stocker put up this chart on the causes of warming since 1951. Via @ed_hawkings on Twitter.

Suing for Failure to Predict The Pause

This week's Science magazine has a letter by Enzo Boschi, one of the Italien seismologists sentenced to imprisonment for failing to give adequate warning to the population of L’Aquila, Italy, about the risk of the April 6, 2009 earthquake (309 people died).

Boshi got 6 years. His letter is a cry for help, and it's hard not to feel sorry for the guy (and also, outraged in general at what Italy has done here). His letter ends:

The public prosecutor’s superficial interpretation of scientific results to bolster his argument sets a grave precedent for not only seismology but many other disciplines as well. Science is constantly evolving; research proceeds by trial and—as knowledge grows—error. When I wrote the “indicted” work, I was addressing my worldwide peers and awaiting their verification, as must be the way of all modern scientific research.

In publishing an official map, seismologists have doneall they currently can to protect society from earthquakes. I can hardly be blamed for the poor quality of buildings or forpeople’s failure to conform toanti-seismic laws—these are the responsibilities of other authorities. The local CPA is responsible for accurate communication of risk and effective management of emergency situations. I did not disseminate false or imprudent information. My question is: What could I do to avoid conviction? I suppose Ishould have foreseen the earthquake!

The LA Times covers it here.... Let's hope it doesn't set a precedent, but if it does and this is how the game is going to be played, what would stop a company or industry who has been subjected to greenhouse gas regulations from suing the IPCC or GISS or James Hansen or someone/anyone for failing to, say, predict The Pause, claiming their bottom line suffered for a problem that isn't happening as predicted?

Crazy enough to happen, particularly in today's America?

Boehner: Let Them Eat Coal

Nice: with the U.S. government on the verge of a shutdown, John Boehner decided to spend his time last night having dinner with...coal executives. Politico:

SPOTTED, last night at The Greenbrier, in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va.: Speaker Boehner, speaking at The Rodeo, a dinner with coal producers, hosted by CSX, that is a 92-year-old tradition. After a Playbooker SPOTTED the Speaker, his office told us: “To honor a previous commitment, the Speaker flew up, gave remarks, and immediately came back to Washington.”

Priorities.... Sarte wrote, "Only actions determine intentions."

"We don't insist that fire trucks cost less than a chevy"

A great comment in the NY Times by Hugh01890:

It continues to baffle me why we so often insist that the solution to climate change must be less expensive than burning carbon. If sustainable energy costs more, then so be it. Work on reducing the costs, but please don't wait for the magic bullet of a technology that is sustainable AND cheaper than our current destructive practices. We don't insist that fire trucks cost less than a chevy.

By the same token, we don't say "I'm not going to eat fruits and vegetables until they're cheaper than a Big Mac."

This Just In....

From the Tulsa World:

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe said Friday that he is unmoved by a scientific report that experts in the field are increasingly certain of global warming and increasingly convinced it is the result of human activity....

In anticipation of the report, Inhofe filed legislation Thursday that would bar the United States from participating in international climate negotiations unless the panel's report is amended to say it's findings are "unproven scientific theory."

James Inhofe fingers Al Gore

In further remarks, Senator Inhofe said he will also file legislation requiring that U.S. police departments may arrest someone only when it is admitted that fingerprints are no basis for unique identification, that doctors may only operate on injured patients after they admit that X-rays are not a reliable indicator of the human skeleton, and that personally he will not balance his checkbook until mathematicians admit that the laws of arithmetic have no proven basis in logic.

Perfect for This 5AR Day

Liberated Carbon, by Andrew Revkin.

The album is here, and a live version (with the lyrics) here.

The Most Important Paragraph in Today's 5AR SPM?

Perhaps the most important change in today's IPCC 5AR WG1 Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is a single paragraph on geoengineering:

Methods that aim to deliberately alter the climate system to counter climate change, termed geoengineering, have been proposed. Limited evidence precludes a comprehensive quantitative assessment of both Solar Radiation Management (SRM) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and their impact on the climate system. CDR methods have biogeochemical and technological limitations to their potential on a global scale. There is insufficient knowledge to quantify how much CO2 emissions could be partially offset by CDR on a century timescale. Modelling indicates that SRM methods, if realizable, have the potential to substantially offset a global temperature rise, but they would also modify the global water cycle, and would not reduce ocean acidification. If SRM were terminated for any reason, there is high confidence that global surface temperatures would rise very rapidly to values consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing. CDR and SRM methods carry side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale. {6.5, 7.7} 

I believe this is the first time any mention of geoengineering has appeared in an IPCC report.... It seems mostly an accurate and not surprising summary of the state of knowledge of geoengineering, though Ken Caldiera has already pointed out on the geoengineering discussion list that the word "suddenly" was left out of the penultimate sentence, i.e "If SRM were suddenly terminated for any reason...."

That's significantly different from what New Scientist reported a few days ago:

Global warming is irreversible without massive geoengineering of the atmosphere's chemistry. This stark warning comes from the draft summary of the latest climate assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

so we'll see what the full WG1 says.

But just the fact that this paragraph is there in the SPM seems important -- almost like it's a placeholder for what's going to come in the 6AR (if there is such a thing) or future reports from the IPCC. Like it's setting the table.... The Guardian reported several days ago that

Russia is pushing for next week's landmark UN climate science report to include support for controversial technologies to geoengineer the planet's climate, according to documents obtained by the Guardian.

though they may have a conflict between this and the economic opportunities they see opening up from climate change (especially, of course, oil and gas drilling in the Arctic).

Ten years from now the only real argument left may be whether it's wise to finally begin geoengineering, since we seem unable to do anything else about climate change.

"In a Befogged Stupor, Doing Nothing"

Joel Achenbach in the Washington Post, comparing climate science and claims of lingering uncertainties about the JFK assassination:

The elusive nature of reality is seen in climate science as well. The eternal quest for “consensus” isn’t really how science works, because scientists tend to be wary of absolutes and consider most knowledge to be provisional. We can be certain that we’ll always have to cope with some level of uncertainty. But that’s no reason to sit around in a befogged stupor, doing nothing.

Also at WaPo, Brad Plumer has a preview of tomorrow's 5AR.

Google's Abuses Oregon -- Again

Last year Google had $10.7 billion in profits.

Yet Oregon officials just granted them another package of tax exemptions for a new data center.

What did Oregon get? Just 10 jobs:

The "enterprise zone" deal, first outlined last week, exempts the new building and the equipment inside from property taxes. That would save Google tens of millions of dollars, and potentially hundreds of millions of dollars, over the 15-year life of the deal.

In exchange, Google pledged to invest at least $200 million in the new data center and add at least 10 more jobs to a work force that already numbers around 150. The actual totals are likely to be somewhat higher, given the size and staffing needs of Google's current facilities. The company has spent at least $700 million in The Dalles since 2006.

But hey, if it's good for Google's bottom line, just shut up and bend over.

Billionaires get all the breaks.

National Geographic and Sea Level Rise

I am too busy, and too sick, to blog much recently. But I did want to mention the September issue of National Geographic, which has a very good article on sea level rise. (Miami is toast; even seawalls won't help, because the land sits on porous rock. Water already shoots out of their manholes at very high tides.)

One interesting number was that the total amount of water in all living organisms (on Earth) is 269 cubic miles. Cubic miles.

If I calculated correctly, that works out to 2.2 millimeters if spread across the entire surface of the planet. Just enough to keep the surface wet -- about like Oregon 8 months of the year
.

What 95% certainty of warming means to scientists

The AP's Seth Borenstein:

Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill.

"They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/what-95-certainty-warming-means-scientists