Monday, September 04, 2023

UAH: Second-warmest Month in Their Records

UAH/Roy Spencer just published their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere.

It's the warmest August since their records start in 1979 (by 0.30°C!) and the 2nd-hottest month since 1979 (just 0.01°C below the record of February 2016). 

This decade-to-date, 34 months into the new decade, is 0.27°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. (It's a short time interval, though, so not very meaningful.)

Every new decade UAH adjusts their anomalies to the latest 30 years (perhaps to keep the numbers smaller?). August's anomaly, with respect to 1980-2009, is 0.83°C, larger than I would have guessed. 

When is 1.00°C going to appear?

Very likely even higher anomalies to come in the next few months as the El Nino gets rolling....

Sunday, September 03, 2023

China's WAP Decline

China's working-age population has peaked. Not good news if you want continued national economic growth.


Via The World Bank, via Paul Krugman in the NY Times. He writes:
"At a fundamental level, China is suffering from the paradox of thrift, which says that an economy can suffer if consumers try to save too much. If businesses aren’t willing to borrow and then invest all the money consumers are trying to save, the result is an economic downturn. Such a downturn may well reduce the amount businesses are willing to invest, so an attempt to save more can actually reduce investment.

"And China has an incredibly high national savings rate. Why? I’m not sure there’s a consensus about the causes, but an I.M.F. study argued that the biggest drivers are a low birthrate — so people don’t feel they can rely on their children to support them in retirement — and an inadequate social safety net, so they don’t feel that they can rely on public support either."
This kind of thing is why macroeconomics is so interesting. And why you can't run government as a business, something some people don't seem able to understand.

Friday, September 01, 2023

Roy Spencer's Temperature

Roy Spencer usually publishes their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere for the month just ended on the first of the month.

But it's not published today. (As of Sept 1, 4:54 pm Central Time.)

I've noticed from the past that he often doesn't publish it on the first of the month when the anomaly is high. 

But never when the anomaly is low.

Of course, maybe he's on vacation. It is Labor Day here on Monday, and maybe he's getting in a four-day leave. I hope that's the reason. Wouldn't want to think there's a bias going on. Wouldn't want to think there's a bit of a file drawer problem.

(Seriously though, there is a real issue, in me and everyone else, to stop analysis when we get the result we think we want, and to keep looking for problems when we don't. I guess the only solution to that is for others to look at the science too and see what they get. Science does that and usually gets it right, but usually it takes some time. The RSS group hasn't published their August LT anomaly yet, but then they usually don't on the first of the month, but usually a few days later, sometimes several days later. Seems like a better delivery system.)