Monday, July 31, 2023

Saturday, July 29, 2023

US vs China Cumulative Emissions - Parity?

The US has emitted more CO2 cumulatively than has China. The current ratio, for CO2e starting in 1850, is 1.69. When will it equal one?

Our World in Data gives this chart

but their table of data is not very accommodating, having everything, by country, by year, shoved into a single column.

So instead I'm going to use the much more reasonable data presentation from PIK (Potsdam Institute of Climate Research), which begins in 1850.

Then, the ratio of US CO2e to China CO2e emissions is, since 1850

This is all emissions, in CO2-equivalent units, for the Kyoto gases, which are 

Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the so-called F-gases(hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Each gas is weighted by its global warming potential and aggregated to give total greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents.

Up until about 1880, China actually led the US, presumably from methane emissions from growing rice.

Since just after the peak, say starting in 1970, this ratio is very linear and looks like

This linear trend reaches 1 in the year 2028.8--just 5.2 years from this August 1st.

Of course, China now has a population 4.2 times that of the US, so per-capita this ratio isn't even in the ballpark of one. 

And per-capita, not per-country, is really how carbon emissions should be accounted for. Americans are still a much bigger energy hog and carbon polluter than the Chinese, and this may never reach parity. Even more so when you consider that we've outsourced some of our manufacturing (=carbon emissions) to China. Perhaps that's the only reason why US annual emissions have been decreasing in recent years. I'm pretty sure someone somewhere has been keeping the data on this.

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Norman Page Again With the Cooling

Norman Page is back at it with more predictions of global cooling.

If you recall, our friend Norman Page PhD keeps making predictions of global cooling that keep being wildly wrong. Yet he never learns.

In 2012 he wrote that his cooling prediction of 2003 was going great:

"My 2012 forecast of a cooling trend from 2003 on is looking good." 

despite it looking like no such thing. That year he also wrote a on WUWT, titled "Global cooling in the near future," saying (in bold)

"the earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly longer."

Both these predictions have been absolutely wrong. Embarrassingly so, you'd think.

Worse, he tried to claim he was right all along.

And he's been at it still. First in 2017:

"The coming cooling: Usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers," Energy & Environment, v28 i3 (Feb 10, 2017).

in the journal that is the last recourse of deniers, Energy & Environment. In 2019 he wrote about this paper:

"The 2017 paper proposed a simple heuristic approach to climate science which plausibly proposes that a Millennial Turning Point (MTP)  and peak in solar activity was reached in 1991,that this turning point correlates with a temperature turning point in 2003/4, and that a general cooling trend will now follow until approximately 2650."

still claiming that it started cooling in 2003/4, when of course it has done anything but:

In fact, the 20-year trend of GISS monthly global surface temperature is 0.45°C/20yrs.  

Here Norman is, doubling down again on Judith Curry's blog just the other day, saying scientists have a "CO2 derangement syndrome."

Some people just refuse to learn. I wonder if Norman's salary depends on ignoring the evidence. 

Wednesday, July 12, 2023

India Population Surpasses China

China's population fell for the first time last year, by 185,000 (-0.01%) compared to 2021. And India now has more people than China, by 5.0 million in 2022. 

Friday, July 07, 2023

Amazing and Beautiful

This is amazing and beautiful, but the video isn't embeddable so you have to watch it on YouTube.

Here's a #short.

Added 12/8/23: Here's the full Youtube video. Can you blame Cetaceans for having returned to the sea from land?

The music, which is perfect for the video, is Continent (The Journey) by Adrian Berenguer.

Kudos to the cameraperson.

Thursday, July 06, 2023

Hottest June Ever

Copernicus [the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)] released their temperature anomalies for June, and found that the global average temperature for June set a record, among Junes. Their data starts in 1979. {no fair! that's the beginning of the satellite era! ...So be it. The results from UAH and RSS also start in 1979.} They choose a baseline of 1991-2020. They write

Globally, June 2023 was:
  • 0.53°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for June
  • the warmest June in this data record
  • substantially warmer than the 0.37°C anomaly in June 2019, the second warmest June on record

That's quite a jump for a new record.

and here's my chart for the 10-year moving averages. There might even be an acceleration in these data....

Here's their wild looking chart for June SSTs. 

which is the region of the ocean west of London/Pyrenees/western Africa and from the equator to Iceland. (Latitude lines on this map are 36° apart.)

Monday, July 03, 2023


One day I was talking to Cora. She prayed for me because she believed I was blind to sin, wanting me to kneel and pray too, because people to whom sin is just a matter of words, to them salvation is just words too.”

-- William Faulkner, As I Lay Dying

Sunday, July 02, 2023

Is CO2 Plant Food?

Andrew Dessler asks agricultural & food scientist David Lobell of Stanford if "CO2 is plant food."