Sagan

"If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe."

– Carl Sagan

Via: "Why Boltzmann Brains are Bad," Sean Carroll 2017. 

Indonesian Keyboard Player

I'm a little obsessed with this clip:

Posts from the interestingasfuck
community on Reddit

President of the Dunning-Kruger Club

Global temperatures: NOAA found August to be the warmest August in their records (which start in 1850), as they did for -July among Julys. August was the 6th warmest month that NOAA ever recorded. Also the warmest ever meteorological summer (June-August). 

2026 has a chance to be the warmest year in their records, especially with the El Nino here already: it would need a Sept-Dec average of 1.44°C, when the year-to-date average has been 1.16°C and the 12-month moving average is at 1.14°C. July's anomaly was 1.20°C, and August was 1.32°C. I suspect someone like Berkeley Eart has estimated the chances.

The record year is 2024, at 1.26 C above their 1901-2000 baseline period. Relative to their first three decades, 1850-1879, 2024's anomaly was 1.39°C, while this year's average-to-date is 1.30°C.

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Wall Street Journal (no paywall):

Spain is getting cooked. 

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US summer heat shatters record.

Western Europe did too.

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NY Times: "In an Age of Perpetual Climate Disaster, Rebuilding Is the Wrong Goal" (free)

Rebuilding could unfold over decades, too: new infrastructure, new patterns of development, perhaps new evacuation routes and emergency-response units. When truly scarring cataclysms struck, survivors built whole new worlds in their wake. This work was difficult even in stable circumstances. But increasingly, weather extremes are arriving not only as crises but premonitions, with future disasters following now within a generation, often within years, and sometimes, unnervingly, within months.

“Nobody really knows what real recovery looks like,” says Juliette Kayyem, a former assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security under Barack Obama and now a disaster-management scholar at Harvard’s Kennedy School. “But the whole apparatus was built on the assumption that disasters were random and rare and that recovery was one and done.”

This, she says, is the original sin of recovery — that we don’t recognize what the disaster itself is telling us. A true thousand-year flood doesn’t reveal much about what new resilience must be built over the next decade, since you only expect to see something like it again 10 centuries from now. That it might come again before the next census or town council election is such an unnerving prospect that we resist it almost magnetically, preferring to believe our suffering was freakish and improbable. And in the immediate aftermath of disaster, public attention and collective ambition are pulled perversely backward, toward restoration, as much as pushed forward, toward adaptation.

I'm sure AI will be able to solve it, one way or the other.

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NYT again: "Why States Are Cutting Back on Their Climate Goals: Ambitious aims have given way to political anxiety over prices as many states’ 2030 emissions targets appear increasingly out of reach." (free)

After President Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement during his first term, many Democratic-led states passed their own laws to curtail carbon emissions.

But most states that set goals for 2030 are not on track to meet them. Now, with voters worried about inflation, and with the war in Iran raising energy prices, some states have begun to cut back or abandon those goals instead.

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With news like this, and all the talk of an AI apocalypse, I'm finding it difficult not to be discouraged. I don't like the idea of just throwing my hands up in frustration, but what can I do about any of this? Inflation, wars in Iran and Ukraine, dumb tariffs with once-friendly countries, the ever increasing cost of health insurance and health care, "E.P.A. Erases Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants"...all caused or made worse by the bozo in the White House, who gave advice today on AI: Don't worry, be happy. 

Only a low IQ person could think Trump is a high IQ person. President Dunning–Kruger. The only think Trump is qualified for is to be president of the Dunning-Kruger Club. Honestly. So many problems now cry for wise, intelligent, smart leaders, and we get someone too dumb to know how dumb he is. His paranoid narcissism could ruin us all. What is an educated, decent person supposed to do? Seriously, WHAT? 

Some of Today's News

Wow, lots of news today.

• An AI formalized the proof of the famous Fermat's Last Theorem in 13-million lines of code. 
• The same AI, Claude, but in the hands of different people, found that a long-standing question about the Navier-Stokes equation (fluids) has an answer: it does break down in a certain domain.
• Almost half of world’s farmers are poisoned by pesticides every year. This is no way to run a civilization.
• Americans do not get to know where their meat comes from.
• Surprise, surprise: New Yorkers were misled by government officials about how bad their air was after the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center buildings. 

More From Sebastian Junger's "Tribe"

This is from the Introduction to Tribe. It's about a time Junger was threadbare and hitchhiking in Wyoming, and a homeless-looking man came up to him and insisted he [Junger] accept a lunch box.

The lunch box contained a bologna sandwich, an apple, and a bag of potato chips. The food had probably come from a local church. I had no choice but to take it. I thanked him and put the food in my pack for later and wished him luck. Then he turned and made his way back down the on-ramp toward Gillette.

I thought about that man for the rest of my trip. I thought about him for the rest of my life. He'd been generous, yes, but lots of people are generous; what made him different was the fact that he'd taken responsibility for me. He'd spotted me from town and walked half a mile out a highway to make sure I was okay. Robert Frost famously wrote that home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in. The word "tribe" is far harder to define, but a start might be the people you feel compelled to share the last of your food with. For reasons I'll never know, the man in Gillette decided to treat me like a member of his tribe.

This book is about why that sentiment is such a rare and precious thing in modern society, and how the lack of it has affected us all. It's about what we can learn from tribal societies about loyalty and belonging and the eternal human quest for meaning. It's about why — for many people — war feels better than peace and hardship can turn out to be a great blessing and disasters are sometimes remembered more fondly than weddings or tropical vacations. Humans don't mind hardship, in fact they thrive on it; what they mind is not feeling necessary. Modern society has perfected the art of making people not feel necessary. It's time for that to end.

US Voted No on New UN Equal Area Map

The US was the only country to vote no on this equal area map, which Africans rightly consider the map to more just in showing the continent's true size.

The US often votes no on seemingly obvious issues, like a UN resolution affirming that access to food is a fundamental human right. 180 countries voted in favor. Only the US and Israel voted no.

The UN identified "the right to safe and clean drinking water and sanitation as a human right that is essential for the full enjoyment of life and all human rights." The US abstained from voting.

The US is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC). In fact they are now saying they will try to dismantle it.

And on and on. The US has, over the decades, very often voted against what seems to clearly be in the best interest of the world and also of Americans. It's embarrassing and infuriating.

The United Nations General Assembly voted to adopt a new world map that reflects countries’ true relative sizes, after African nations urged the UN to right a centuries-old wrong.

[image or embed]

— CNN (@cnn.com) 8:01 PM · Sep 4, 2026

A Wild Analogy

Quantum mechanics has revealed the probabilistic nature of fundamental particles, while Einstein's general relativity describes how the fabric of spacetime is warped by mass and energy to produce gravity. As a result, we have semiconductors and GPS.

Yet unifying these incredibly successful but separate theories into a single 'Theory of Everything' may be modern physics' greatest challenge (like unifying oil and vinegar into tasty dressing using mustard).

from: Wild experiment reveals quantum objects do obey gravity, Ivan Farkas, ScienceAlert, 4 Sept 2026.

"Tribe" by Sebastian Junger

King George III of England caused the English colonies in America to rebel by trying to tax them without allowing them a voice in government. In this sense, democratic revolutions are just a formalized version of the sort of group action that coalition of senior males have used throughout the ages to confront greed and abuse. Thomas Paine, one of the principal architects of American democracy, wrote a formal pronunciation of civilization in a tract called Agrarian Justice: “Whether…civilization has most promoted or most injured the general happiness of man is a question that may be strongly contested,” he wrote in 1795. "[Both] the most affluent and the most miserable of the human race are to be found in the countries that are called civilized."

I got this from Tribe, Sebastian Junger's latest 2016 book. It's short but very good. Junger's thesis is that modern society, maybe just modern US society but I don't think so, has gotten so far removed from tribal life & community that it's no wonder so many people, perhaps mostly men, feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. In tribal life, such as the indigenous people in North American, everyone had a purpose. First, men needed to defend the tribe and they knew this was a primary responsibility of each one of them. They also had to hunt and gather and bring food back for the tribe (and not just to their own family). Men felt necessary and needed and a vital piece of their tribe/community. Women had children to replenish the tribe and prepare food for the tribe (again, not just their own family). Everyone lived in a definite community, they all knew each other, they'd grown up together and learned together and fought together and suffered together. There was also a great deal of equality and egalitarianism in their societies. Anyone who tried to get on top would be torn down by the others, as referenced in the quote up top. He writes about the thousands of white people who choose to live with the "Indians," after being abducted or choosing it on their own. Some would be rescued and rush right back to live with their tribe. There were almost no cases of Indians defecting to the other side. 

Another example Junger gives is the Bosnian war. Junger went into Sarajevo and lived amongst the people as Serbs bombed the hell out of the town from the surrounding hills. Very quickly, collections of apartment buildings would come together to share food, commiserate together and take care of one another. Teens huddled amongst themselves in deep underground bunkers and lived with one another, ate together, and laughed and loved together. No one was kept outside the group. He quotes more than one person whom he interviewed 20 years later who called wartime madness but also the best times of their lives. Even a happy time for some. They were in their own tribe and had people to take care of, talk to, be scared with and celebrate with. 

I can admit that both of these are likely simplifications. 

I'm about halfway through the book and am just starting to get into a section about modern warfare and the experiences of the soldiers. Many also recall it as some of their best days. (For example, the WW2 veterans who get together even now to see their buddies and tell their stories, stories they've maybe never shared with anyone else.) Junger cites many scientific studies that show veteran suicide and PTSD are more complex issues and do not appear randomly.

I can't wait to read the second half of this book. I can identify with it in that I also feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. I work remotely by myself, and although I live in a suburb I essentially live remotely. I got a taste of what Junger is talking about when I spent five months on the Appalachian Trail in 1996. (I didn't finish the Trail, only hiking 1500 miles because I partially tore two ligaments (I learned later) 500 miles in.) Even though I didn't complete the hike, it was some of the most memorable times of my life, because I had a definite goal, I was motivated, and, believe it or not, there was a tight linear trail community where everyone comes together because we were all suffering and learning together. Many other thru-hikers (who completed the entire 2100-mile trail) would and do say exactly the same thing, even if they can't quite express it. I wish I had anything like that kind of commitment and community today.

JD Vance and the Insanity of His Religion

This guy wants to have his finger on the nuclear button!!

Will Alberta Leave Canada?

This was a stupid post and I regret writing and posting it. I don't know much about it and I don't know what I was thinking. Apologies.

Will Alberta leave Canada? It's fossil fuels vs emissions cutbacks. Conservatives vs Liberals. Extraction vs conservation. Pipelines vs climate action. Cowboy hats vs toques. But Alberta has no coastline. Support for independence is only 25% to 33%. Ballot question 10 on October 19th will ask if the government should begin the process of preparing for a second, legally binding vote on separatism. Could Alberta be appeased if those in Ottawa allow a pipeline to the coast of British Columbia, carrying about 1 million barrels a day. (About 1% of global oil consumption; lots of carbon dioxide when burned, ~400,000 t CO2 per day.) Weird situation. Canada is a leader in per capita carbon emissions--hey man, it gets cold up there--but will give up on strong emissions from Alberta. The environment rarely wins.

In general I'm in favor of separatist movements. Smaller governments are better than larger governments, I believe. The only time I've ever talked to a state representative was when I wrote to one in New Hampshire about an obscure topic. He called me and we talked for an hour. But then, New Hampshire has the largest state legislature in the country with 400 members, about 1 representative for every 3200 citizens. I think that's a good ratio. I'd like to see the US divided up too. Why is liberal Oregon held hostage to the demands of red southern states with their very conservative, unreasonable policies? I think it's inevitable the US cracks up further down the timeline of our obvious decline. 

In the Pacific Northwest here there's talk about a country called Cascadia, but it's only manned, as far as I can tell, by political kooks and malcontents. Well meaning, but a little out there. Nothing that could possibly gain political traction. 

So I kind of hope Alberta secedes. (I guess. It's really none of my business.) Then maybe Quebec. Then maybe Texas. Then maybe Cascadia.

The Great Atom Debate

Did you know Ernst Mach was anti-atom? I didn't. He disputed their existence, and he and Ludwig Boltzmann argued about it for the rest of their lives.  

My good friend Paul Halpern, whom I knew well in graduate school and stay in touch with, has a book coming out: The Great Atom Debate, about this very disagreement. Paul is a wonderful and successful science writer and this is his 18th book, I believe. Here's a site to learn more about the book, and to pre-order it on several sites. Here's its Amazon site. It comes out in December. 

Mourning Dove

Did you know that it's "mourning dove" and not "morning dove?" I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know this until now, but happy that I learned. It makes a difference.

Thanks to Bob Dylan and his lyrics.

When I was a little kid I asked my mother who Richard Stands was. She said, who? I said, you know, like in the Pledge of Allegiance, "...and to the Republic for Richard Stands...." 

4% of Oregon has burned this year so far. Also, Trump is evil.

In making a comment here I did a little calculation: 2.3 million acres of Oregon have burned so far this year, as of about a week ago. 

That's 3.4% of the state!

It's one-third the area of Belgium.

It's already a record here, beating the last record in 2024. 

At the end of last month the Trump administration denied funding to fight two large wildfires in Oregon. (They did approve three others.) Why? Speculation is because he didn't win Oregon's electoral votes. How sociopathic is that? 

They/he also did it in California for last year's Los Angeles fires. 

There's heavy speculation it's because we didn't vote for him. 

"Trump denies disaster aid to four blue states, after approving aid to six red states."

For foreigners: blue states are states that did not vote for Trump in the 2024 election; red states did. (Reminder: in the US we vote by state. Whoever gets the most votes in a state gets all their electoral votes; votes are distributed by the electoral college and are proportional to population. 

They even admitted it in a legal brief:

White House admits it scrapped grants to blue states because they didn’t vote for Trump

Think about how sick this is. Literally, sociopathic, playing with people's lives and property.

It's utterly exhausting having a mentally ill president. 

Miscellaneous

 Chinese robot runs 100m sprint quicker than Usain Bolt’s world record | Sport | The Guardian. It also set a record in the men's half-marathon. Other humanoid robots in China set records in the standing high jump and running high jump.

Phoenix Arizona is forecasted to have the next several days with a high temperature of  +115°F (46°C). The US government just mandated they take a 21% cut in water from the Colorado River, along with Nevada and Colorado. There just isn't enough water in the river these days. 

Trump made 1,051 trades in his stock & bond portfolio in just June alone. Supposedly someone is managing his portfolio while he's in office. Supposedly.

"Paramedics Now Rolling Up to Medical Emergencies in Flying Hovercraft." Northern California. With applications like this and especially the delivery drones from Amazon, Walmart etc it's going to add to noise pollution nearly everywhere. Ugg. 

7.6 billion people will be able to see the asteroid Apophis when it passes by Earth at an altitude of only 20,000 miles (32,000 km). April 13, 2029. (A Friday, believe it or not. Friday the 13th.) It's 340 m long (1,120 ft). NASA now says there is zero chance it hits Earth. Will be viewable "across Australia, Asia, Africa, Europe, and eastern South America" for up to seven hours. Sorry North America. ESA: 

“Scientists believe that an asteroid as large as Apophis only comes this close to Earth once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” the ESA added in a Twitter/X post.