Warming Up To 2025: 1.37°C

These latest numbers imply 1.5°C of total global warming in just four years. 2.0°C of warming in 2049. It's coming on fast now. Here's the paper.

Our 2026 Indicators of Global Climate Change paper is out! We find that the human-induced warming was 1.37C in 2025, and the current rate of warming is 0.27C per year, on track to firmly pass 1.5C in about four years: essd.copernicus.org/...

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— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath.bsky.social) June 11, 2026 at 4:42 PM

El Niño is Coming on Strong

 Sea surface temperatures for the Nino 3.4 region:

and for the global average sea surface temperature:

Both graphs via Tropical TidBits.

Blue Origin Rocket Blows Up on Launchpad

9 pm Eastern Standard Time, tonight. Everything exploded during a test for a launch soon, liquid oxygen + liquefied natural gas.

I think this is the biggest rocket explosion I've ever seen. It was going to carry 48 satellites to space. Bezos says trying again "is worth it." Probably a write off on all the taxes he doesn't pay (0%).

Amazing TED Talk - Steven Hayes

This is the most unique TED talk I have ever seen. Maybe you too will find it interesting.

 

Warren Zevon Before Dying

Enjoy every sandwich.

La Nina to End Soon, then ENSO-Neutral

The climate gods may finally be giving ENSO a break. The Climate Prediction Center at the University of Maryland says the current La Nina should last a couple more months, then the gods will deliver [viz. the Center predicts] a neutral ENSO. After the last 3-4 years maybe even they need a rest. It will be interesting to finally see what global temperatures will do when there is no ENSO going on. Will it stay as warm as the last three years [barring the current La Nina], or will temperatures dip some? Only the gods know for sure, and they're plenty unhappy with humans messing with their climate toy.

Update on the Pythagorean Theorem

Tinariwen (+IO:I) - Sastanàqqàm

Is Trump Starting to Lose His Mind?

Trump had MRIs a few weeks ago and claimed to not know why his doctors were doing that. He said to ask them.

MRIs aren't usually part of a customary physical.

CBS News:
President Trump underwent "advanced imaging" of his abdomen and cardiovascular system for "preventative" reasons, the White House said Monday, one day after the president told reporters that he had "no idea" what body parts his MRI covered during his October physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Given what he said today about Somalians, a fair and necessary question is whether he is starting to enter some degree of senility. It was so shocking and revolting, as if he just can't hold his reptilian side in any more. There are reports he fell asleep in the meeting, that he's fallen asleep in other meetings, and brutal honesty like this can be a symptom of dementia, it seems, as the person loses some control over his/her body. This was odd even for Trump.

 
And we have 3+ more years of this? That's really worries me, about the decisions he will make if he's unable to control himself and think, act and talk rationally.

 
That could be a deep nightmare. And not just for the US, I'm afraid.

My Electricity Usage as a Function of Temperature

Here's my monthly electricity usage, in watts, plotted against the average monthly local temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit:

My base electricity rate is 7.54¢/kWh, but including all fees and taxes it averages 11.9¢/kWh. Not too bad. Lots of hydropower from river dams in the Pacific Northwest.

(100¢ = $1)

On average I use about 25 kWh/day, or for the year 7,500-10,000 kWh. Actual  average power consumption is 996 watts--that's the average amount of power I'm consuming all the time. 

The annual average daily temperature is 55°F. (daily temperature = average of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.) The maximum month was 76°F, and the minimum was 39°F. (monthly temperature = average of daily temperatures.)

So above about 65°F, when I don't use any heating and only a fan for intermittent cooling (no A/C), my electricity usage is a constant--enough to keep the refrigerator running, lights and computer, and cooking. That comes to about 400 kWh/month, or 550 watts. Then as it gets colder I turn on the heat (baseboard electric) and the electricity increase is close to linear with temperature (with a negative slope). 

The slope of the part of the graph below 65°F is about -68 kWh/°F, but it's not perfectly linear. 

As it get colder my monthly electricity cost increases by about $4.30/(-°F).

Here's my annualized (12-month total) electricity usage since June 2020:

Now it's time to turn the lights off and go to bed. Goodnight. 

Where We Are on Climate

I saw this on a climate change forum on Reddit and think it's an accurate, succinct summary of where I find myself right now. Apparently others too.

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Trends in US Energy Consumption

The annual average energy use of Americans has dropped noticeably since 1973--about 25%. One-fourth.

kW=kilowatts

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Yet total energy consumption has only recently leveled off.

TW=terawatts

It looks like we finally got the enormous energy consumption of new babies controlled around 2005. 

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(That's a joke.)