El Niño is Coming on Strong

 Sea surface temperatures for the Nino 3.4 region:

and for the global average sea surface temperature:

Both graphs via Tropical TidBits.

Blue Origin Rocket Blows Up on Launchpad

9 pm Eastern Standard Time, tonight. Everything exploded during a test for a launch soon, liquid oxygen + liquefied natural gas.

I think this is the biggest rocket explosion I've ever seen. It was going to carry 48 satellites to space. Bezos says trying again "is worth it." Probably a write off on all the taxes he doesn't pay (0%).

Amazing TED Talk - Steven Hayes

This is the most unique TED talk I have ever seen. Maybe you too will find it interesting.

 

Warren Zevon Before Dying

Enjoy every sandwich.

La Nina to End Soon, then ENSO-Neutral

The climate gods may finally be giving ENSO a break. The Climate Prediction Center at the University of Maryland says the current La Nina should last a couple more months, then the gods will deliver [viz. the Center predicts] a neutral ENSO. After the last 3-4 years maybe even they need a rest. It will be interesting to finally see what global temperatures will do when there is no ENSO going on. Will it stay as warm as the last three years [barring the current La Nina], or will temperatures dip some? Only the gods know for sure, and they're plenty unhappy with humans messing with their climate toy.

Update on the Pythagorean Theorem

Tinariwen (+IO:I) - Sastanàqqàm

Is Trump Starting to Lose His Mind?

Trump had MRIs a few weeks ago and claimed to not know why his doctors were doing that. He said to ask them.

MRIs aren't usually part of a customary physical.

CBS News:
President Trump underwent "advanced imaging" of his abdomen and cardiovascular system for "preventative" reasons, the White House said Monday, one day after the president told reporters that he had "no idea" what body parts his MRI covered during his October physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

Given what he said today about Somalians, a fair and necessary question is whether he is starting to enter some degree of senility. It was so shocking and revolting, as if he just can't hold his reptilian side in any more. There are reports he fell asleep in the meeting, that he's fallen asleep in other meetings, and brutal honesty like this can be a symptom of dementia, it seems, as the person loses some control over his/her body. This was odd even for Trump.

 
And we have 3+ more years of this? That's really worries me, about the decisions he will make if he's unable to control himself and think, act and talk rationally.

 
That could be a deep nightmare. And not just for the US, I'm afraid.

My Electricity Usage as a Function of Temperature

Here's my monthly electricity usage, in watts, plotted against the average monthly local temperature, in degrees Fahrenheit:

My base electricity rate is 7.54¢/kWh, but including all fees and taxes it averages 11.9¢/kWh. Not too bad. Lots of hydropower from river dams in the Pacific Northwest.

(100¢ = $1)

On average I use about 25 kWh/day, or for the year 7,500-10,000 kWh. Actual  average power consumption is 996 watts--that's the average amount of power I'm consuming all the time. 

The annual average daily temperature is 55°F. (daily temperature = average of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature.) The maximum month was 76°F, and the minimum was 39°F. (monthly temperature = average of daily temperatures.)

So above about 65°F, when I don't use any heating and only a fan for intermittent cooling (no A/C), my electricity usage is a constant--enough to keep the refrigerator running, lights and computer, and cooking. That comes to about 400 kWh/month, or 550 watts. Then as it gets colder I turn on the heat (baseboard electric) and the electricity increase is close to linear with temperature (with a negative slope). 

The slope of the part of the graph below 65°F is about -68 kWh/°F, but it's not perfectly linear. 

As it get colder my monthly electricity cost increases by about $4.30/(-°F).

Here's my annualized (12-month total) electricity usage since June 2020:

Now it's time to turn the lights off and go to bed. Goodnight. 

Where We Are on Climate

I saw this on a climate change forum on Reddit and think it's an accurate, succinct summary of where I find myself right now. Apparently others too.

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Trends in US Energy Consumption

The annual average energy use of Americans has dropped noticeably since 1973--about 25%. One-fourth.

kW=kilowatts

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

Yet total energy consumption has only recently leveled off.

TW=terawatts

It looks like we finally got the enormous energy consumption of new babies controlled around 2005. 

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(That's a joke.)

Berkeley Earth's October, and Crimes Against Humanity

Berkeley Earth's global temperature for October. Above 1.5°C. It looks still in the running for the warmest year yet. Not that the fossil fuel companies who ran COP30 care. 

I found COP30 to be pretty depressing. It's causing me to somewhat give up on viewing potential solutions to climate change, and now just watching it in a detached, intellectual way just to see the numbers and what happens and how bad it will get, if I live long enough for that. I don't see a solution as possible--there is too much money in the game from fossil fuel interests and other corporations, and they control politics in the US especially. That's not going to stop in this uber-corrupt country. They flooded COP30 and it almost seems the conference was arranged for them. It's disgusting and they should have been banned from the being there. Why weren't they? Cowardice. Wouldn't make any practical difference but it might have sent just a little sign (that they could then promptly set alight). 

It's a near impossible problem to solve anyway--a "wicked problem"--and it seems impossible to make meaningful, definite progress. A decline in the trendline of positive CO2e emissions is not much to hang a hat on. Why bother not eating beef? I never ate much, it's not healthy, I can't afford much now anyway except cheap cuts. I don't need it but a steak is nice every once in awhile. It doesn't matter if I don't eat it. It's impossible to see my decisions about that propagating back through the beef industry to affecting emissions of methane and CO2 and a temperature decline. 

I was mostly interested in the science of global warming, the physics, the way the atmosphere works. I have opinions for sure but I've never been an activist, for anything. Partly from being shy and introverted, but I just can't connect tiny, little actions to the big picture. The big picture is just too big. 

Executives in the fossil fuel companies, and prominent deniers, are guilty of crimes against humanity. They would stand trial in a decent, courageous, spiritually clean world. Trump first but many, many others should be prosecuted too.

Our House

The house I grew up in, southwestern Pennsylvania.