Sorry, but I'm still a little obsessed with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, as I explained a few days ago.
It's such a beautiful region. They mountains are layered, each one higher than the one in front of it. The highest is Clingman's Dome in the Smokey Mountains, 6644 ft in elevation (2025 m). Not high enough to feel a lack of oxygen, but high enough to not feel part of the real world.
You know, I think I'm getting a better understanding of what's going on there from Facebook Reels and YouTube Shorts and Insta than any network news programs. It's raw and it's personal without all the pretty people in makeup.
This guy says it's worse than a Middle East war zone and there's no coming back. He and his family are moving:
(Sorry, these shorts aren't embeddable, and sometimes barely connectable. Sometimes you have to unmute the video and then hit your up-volume key to get audio.)
In this last link, to his credit, David Wallace-Wells points out that these kinds of storms have hit this area before:
Helene gives one vision of the future, with the storm scarring a whole region and imposing perhaps a decade of recovery. But in truth, as extraordinary as its devastation might seem, this kind of flooding in this kind of setting was not unthinkable or, for that matter, even unprecedented. Indeed, it happened in western North Carolina in 1916, and Hurricanes Camille (1969) and Agnes (1972) offered additional cautionary tales.
Some of the families in those mountains have been there for a century, generation after generation. (They can be quite xenophobic in that region, too, as I learned on the Appalachian Trail.) They won't leave, but will rebuild as best they can. But some people aren't going to be able to dig out and start again. They're the ones with a little more money, more options, probably not native to the region. They're not barely getting by. Ironic that the very poor are the ones who will survive there and stay there. Reminds me of the Middle East, with all its turmoil. People with deep roots respect them. Sometimes I think I should have respected mine too.
We stopped that real quick, pointing out that his entertainment implied the world would end in January 2171.
He got the message and ended his "entertaining third-order polynomial." Shame when you have to teach a scientist how to be scientific.
Of course, there has been a lot of warming since.
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An "entertaining" thought: how many people did climate denialists kill via Hurricane Helene? Say, to the nearest factor of 10 human beings? Too soon to ask?
I'm perfectly happy to wait until professional climatologists present their verdict on climate change and Hurricane Helene, the hurricane that slammed into northwestern Florida a few days ago, but it's hard to imagine it wasn't a factor. It struck Florida as a Category Four hurricane--only two years after the Category 5 hurricane Ian tore close to Helene's path, and did a huge amount of damage there, and Georgia and, especially it seems, in western North Carolina.
I'm OK with waiting because I lived through the aftermath of Hurricane Agnes in June 1972, which hit Pennsylvania especially hard. That storm caused 128 deaths, 50 of them in Pennsylvania, where I grew up. (Adjusting for population, 128 deaths then would be the equivalent of approximately 206 today, if you adjust for population.) About Agnes in Pennsylvania, here's what Wiki says:
Though Agnes made landfall as a hurricane [in Florida], no reports of hurricane-force winds exist....
In Pennsylvania, heavy rainfall was reported, with much of the state experiencing more than 7 inches (180 mm) of precipitation. Furthermore, a large swath of rainfall exceeding 10 inches (250 mm) was reported in the central part of the state. Overall, the rains peaked at 19 inches (480 mm) in the western portions of Schuylkill County. As a result, Agnes is listed as the wettest tropical cyclone on record for the state of Pennsylvania. Overall, more than 100,000 people were forced to leave their homes due to flooding. The Allegheny River reached above flood stage at several low-lying locations and at some places rose about 7 in (180 mm) per hour during the height of the storm. Additionally, the Susquehanna River threatened to reach record crests along its course.[42] Some buildings were under 13 ft (4.0 m) of water in Harrisburg. At the Governor's Mansion, the first floor was submerged by flood waters. Governor Milton Shapp and his wife Muriel had to be evacuated by boat due to flooding.
Our little white wooden house--which didn't even have a bathroom, just a toilet under the stairs and a rusty shower in the coal cellar--had a pretty stream that went along two sides of our big yard. It was great for messing in for hours, catching crabs (crayfish), shooting the legs of water skippers off with BB guns (if you shot two legs off one side it could only go in a circle), throwing your puppy in on a cold winter day, that kind of thing. But it must have worried my mom to death because after big rains it would become a roiling brown deluge about 20 yards wide, not too far from our backdoor then curling around and across the bottom of the yard. Kids were always outside then, unsupervised, so she had to have worried one or more or her kids or others' kids or both might get swept away.
For Hurricane Agnes, the creek ("crick" where I grew up) went up over its bank and flooded most of your yard. Our lawn furniture was swept away, as was a swing set. We were standing around watching it and my grandmother said to my dad's uncle, you better get that [Volkswagon] Beetle out of the driveway before it floats away! For some reason they never spoke again after that incident. There must have been bad blood going into it.
I was just a kid so I didn't really understand the extent of the damage, which was over the entire region and other parts of the state. Downstream a few miles from us it wiped out a Mennonite community, so afterward the state brought bulldozers in, scraped the creek clean and piled the rocks up on the side.
Was Hurricane Agnes affected by climate change? I don't know. It was 1972, when CO2 was only 328 ppm. So what does that say about Hurricane Helene? I don't think we know yet until climate scientists run their models with and without the effect of today's added CO2. I suspect those will be coming in due course. But sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were higher, so there must have been at least some impact. But clearly there have been greater or equal storm when CO2 was much lower.
Helene's damage in Florida is bad enough, but western North Carolina looks worse than a war zone and it's possible to imagine it might never come back full.
It's such a beautiful area. In 1996 I hiked the Appalachian Trail from Georgia to Massachusetts (sprained my ankle 1/4th of the way and only made it 2/3rds of the entire trail), and there are so many pretty towns way up in westernmost North Carolina, some of which the Trail runs down main street: Franklin NC, Hot Springs NC, Damascus VA all of which we took a day or three off in and which I have great memories of.
I had maybe the best day of my life there, thanks to heavy hiking the days before, nothing but rest and eating on a beautiful early spring day with green buds coming out, several of our friends there at the same time, four fun white kittens on the back porch of the B&B we stayed at, a big cozy bed and a major shot of testesterone due to having lost 30 pounds in 30 days. (It affected all the men the same, my girlfriend said her trail girlfriends told her.)
The mountains there are so beautiful. A couple are over 6,000 ft in elevation (1,830 m). Not huge compared to the Alps and the western US and the Himalayas. But they are flooded with green, and snow, and hiking them for an extended period was like living in a cloud no one else ever saw.
I'm sad other hikers might not get to experience Hot Springs in the same way. There have to be huge blowdowns over the trail in that entire region. Yesterday the director of the Appalachian Trail Conference said it may be years until the Trail is back in shape. It probably won't deter hikers planning to start in Georgia in the spring, but there could be lots or erosion and damage way up there in the mountains.
The people way up in those mountains usually don't have much money and are very unlikely to have flood insurance. Many may have lost everything they own and will simply not have a house to go back to. One day you think you're living in paradise and the next day it's entirely gone.
I've never been to Asheville NC, but it's such a well known place now after attracting a lot of breweries and artists and businesspeople and progressives and good people in the last few decades. It might be worst of all. People haven't even been able to get in or out of town, though that's probably taken care of, in part, by today. There's almost no gas, I saw a video of a casket floating down a flooded stream, no electricity, the entire River Arts District was wiped away.
Predictably, Trump is already telling obnoxious lies about it about President Biden's response to the storm.
Anyway, this is what I'm thinking yesterday and today. If I didn't have to work I have half a mind to drive across the country and help out there in whatever way I could.
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Added a couple hours later: Of course I’m aware of the impacts of climate change in other parts of the world: in Bangladesh, where the area affected by the encroaching ocean has increased by a factor of over 12 from 1973 to 2009, in western and Canadian wildfires, in Africa, where climate change is costing up to 5% of GDP, etc. It’s just that it really hits home when its somewhere you love or know well. Obviously.
I haven't followed methane much because I couldn't find a good data source, but now I have, from NASA. And even better source is the Global Carbon Project, which is updated every 7.6 days.
After that weird lull in the mid-aughts, methane is on the rise again and is the highest it's been in 800,000 years.
Methane's radiative forcing has increased by about 0.4 W/m2 since 1979, while CO2's has jumped about 1.6 W/m2 in the same interval.
This page has formulas for calculating radiative forcing for the major greenhouse gases.
Global radiative forcing has increased by about 50% (as of 2022) just since 1990. Here, "AGGI" is the ratio of radiative forcing to what it was in 1990.
It's incredible that the world, despite all the rhetoric and (token) efforts, keeps allowing this to happen. Clearly, I think, these trends will only be taken seriously once some catastrophic effects happen, and by then it will be too late. So human and we can't even help ourselves.
The other day I gave the data on global ocean acidification, which I'm reproducing below. But first, here are the projections from the IPCC AR6 (WG1 Figure SPM.8c p22 of SPM):
On the top figure, the black line is the data, which matches the bottom. Of the two projections, maybe SSP2-4.5 is the most likely, with SSP3-7.0 if we're naughty. So a pH decline of about 0.15 by 2100, maybe 0.35.
[The "4.5" and "7.0" represents the total forcing from...everything, in Watts/m2. The AR6 WG1 was published on 9 August 2021.]
And these curves don't stop declining after 2100.
I don't know if a pH decline of 0.35 in a century is large for aquatic animals or not. I suspect they've gotten used to a pretty stable pH over the Holocene. I don't know a lot about this subject, which I've seen people write is "the other global warming problem."
Comments welcome, especially from fish and other ocean dwellers.
