Monday, September 04, 2023

UAH: Second-warmest Month in Their Records

UAH/Roy Spencer just published their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere.

It's the warmest August since their records start in 1979 (by 0.30°C!) and the 2nd-hottest month since 1979 (just 0.01°C below the record of February 2016). 

This decade-to-date, 34 months into the new decade, is 0.27°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. (It's a short time interval, though, so not very meaningful.)

Every new decade UAH adjusts their anomalies to the latest 30 years (perhaps to keep the numbers smaller?). August's anomaly, with respect to 1980-2009, is 0.83°C, larger than I would have guessed. 

When is 1.00°C going to appear?

Very likely even higher anomalies to come in the next few months as the El Nino gets rolling....

Sunday, September 03, 2023

China's WAP Decline

China's working-age population has peaked. Not good news if you want continued national economic growth.


Via The World Bank, via Paul Krugman in the NY Times. He writes:
"At a fundamental level, China is suffering from the paradox of thrift, which says that an economy can suffer if consumers try to save too much. If businesses aren’t willing to borrow and then invest all the money consumers are trying to save, the result is an economic downturn. Such a downturn may well reduce the amount businesses are willing to invest, so an attempt to save more can actually reduce investment.

"And China has an incredibly high national savings rate. Why? I’m not sure there’s a consensus about the causes, but an I.M.F. study argued that the biggest drivers are a low birthrate — so people don’t feel they can rely on their children to support them in retirement — and an inadequate social safety net, so they don’t feel that they can rely on public support either."
This kind of thing is why macroeconomics is so interesting. And why you can't run government as a business, something some people don't seem able to understand.

Friday, September 01, 2023

Roy Spencer's Temperature

Roy Spencer usually publishes their temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere for the month just ended on the first of the month.

But it's not published today. (As of Sept 1, 4:54 pm Central Time.)

I've noticed from the past that he often doesn't publish it on the first of the month when the anomaly is high. 

But never when the anomaly is low.

Of course, maybe he's on vacation. It is Labor Day here on Monday, and maybe he's getting in a four-day leave. I hope that's the reason. Wouldn't want to think there's a bias going on. Wouldn't want to think there's a bit of a file drawer problem.

(Seriously though, there is a real issue, in me and everyone else, to stop analysis when we get the result we think we want, and to keep looking for problems when we don't. I guess the only solution to that is for others to look at the science too and see what they get. Science does that and usually gets it right, but usually it takes some time. The RSS group hasn't published their August LT anomaly yet, but then they usually don't on the first of the month, but usually a few days later, sometimes several days later. Seems like a better delivery system.)

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Oldie But Goodie

By Joel Pett, 2009:

From Wikipedia:

The cartoon, which first appeared in USA Today in December 2009,[3] around the time of the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference,[4] depicts a conference presenter listing the many advantages of curbing climate change including "energy independence, preserving rainforests, sustainability, green jobs, livable cities, renewables, clean water/air, healthy children, etc., etc.," only to have a climate change denier interject that if it were all a hoax, we'd create a "better world for nothing".[5] Shortly after the conference was over, Pett got a request for a signed copy from then-EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson, who framed the comic and put it on her wall. Pett has repeatedly gotten requests from over 40 environmental groups, in the United States, Canada and Europe to use the cartoon in campaigns. The Australian Greens used it in a campaign which some have claimed was influential in the Australian parliament adopting a carbon pricing scheme under the Clean Energy Act 2011, said to be the most rigorous scheme in the world for the time it was active.[6]

"I've drawn 7,000 cartoons in my life, but really only one," Pett said. "It's an example of one of these ideas I had in my head for 10 years before I realized I hadn't cartooned it...I was thinking, you know, 'It doesn't matter if global warming were a hoax, if the scientists made it up, we still have to do all that shit.'"[7] Pett said in a 2012 editorial that in the 27 months since its first publication, not a week had gone by where he didn't have a request to use the image.[5]

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

The Dominator

Hockey season is coming up, so please pardon the occasional post on this greatest (IMHO) of sports. 

It's still two months until the NHL hockey season starts--three and a half weeks before the first preseason game--and most of the trades and acquisitions have been done by now. Most notably, my Pittsburgh Penguins hired Kyle Dubas, whose contract wasn't extended by the Toronto Maple Leafs after they failed to advance past the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. (Meanwhile, they just rewarded this guy, who didn't really do enough in the playoffs {5G 6A in 11 GP}, an astonishing $13.25 million a year for four years.) In Pittsburgh Dubas made a lot of strong moves very quickly, and there's some talk the Penguins might be real contenders again. Their three Hall of Fame players--Crosby, Malkin and Letang, all at least 36 years of age, and who already have three Stanley Cups, are getting old and want one more Cup, in a league that's getting faster every year.

Anyway, I found this clip of highlights of Dominik Hasic ("The Dominator"), who played in the NHL from 1990-91 to 2007-08. Wild, acrobatic, beautiful saves. At the end of his NHL career his save percentage an amazing .922, and average goals against 2.02, winning two Stanley Cups with the Detroit Red Wings. Some consider him the best goalie ever.

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Biden's Carbon Capture Programs

They're expensive. From CNN:

The Biden administration on Friday announced its first major investment to kickstart the US carbon removal industry – something energy experts say is key to getting the country’s planet-warming emissions under control.

Direct air capture removal projects are akin to huge vacuum cleaners sucking carbon dioxide out of the air, using chemicals to remove the greenhouse gas. Once removed, CO2 gets stored underground, or is used in industrial materials like cement. On Friday, the US Department of Energy announced it is spending $1.2 billion to fund two new demonstration projects in Texas and Louisiana – the South Texas Direct Air Capture hub and Project Cypress in Louisiana

“These two projects are going to build these regional direct air capture hubs,” US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters. “That means they’re going to link everything from capture to processing to deep underground storage, all in one seamless process.”

Granholm said the projects are expected to remove more than 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the air annually once they are up and running – the equivalent of removing nearly 500,000 gas cars off the road.
So let's have a look at the numbers.

$535 per metric ton. Seems high.

I don't know the latest cost numbers for carbon capture, but I'll post this and come back with more information.

Friday, August 25, 2023

Checking On Antarctic Sea Ice

It's still pretty bad. Without doing the calculations, I'd say it looks more anomalously low than it was in July.

Via University of Maine's Climate Reanalyer.

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Heatwave Projections

Interesting gif from Nature. 35°C=95°F.

The worse areas are well north of the equator.

I'd like to see that top chart but for 45°C (113°F).