Monday, July 16, 2018

Intense Fire Whirl Creates Water Spout on Colorado River

Here's a really interesting video from a fire in southern California, where the whirl intense fire creates a water spout in the neighboring Colorado River:

I came across this from an informative weekly video on (mostly) Pacific Northwest weather by Eric Snodgrass at Northwest Farm Credit Services.

Friday, July 13, 2018

Ice Loss Since 2002 Greater than Mass of Mars' Moon Phobos

While Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have increased compared to last year, the trends are still very much downward. Based on the data I've found, the ice loss since 2002 for Arctic sea ice volume, Greenland mass balance, and Antarctica mass balance is larger than the mass of Mars' moon Phobos.

Here then are the numbers (t=metric ton, G=109, T=1012):

where, as usual,


I haven't looked up the mass balance for land-based glaciers, but surely it's less than zero.

Mars' moon Phobos has a mass of 1.0659e16 kg, or 10.7 Tt.

So Earth has lost more ice than the mass of Phobos, and just since 2002. Amazing.

Thursday, July 12, 2018

70% Chance of an El Nino This Winter, Says IRI

The (take a deep breath) Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (exhale) still has the chance of an El Nino this fall at 65% and this winter at 70%. Which would be strange, I'm guessing -- that'd make four consecutive seasons with an ENSO. Here are their model forecasts:

An El Nino peaking at 1.0-1.5°C for the Nino3.4 region would be moderate. The 2015-16 El Nino peaked at 2.6°C and had four months of 2.4°C or higher. The 1997-98 El Nino peaked at 2.4°C (for two months), and the 1982-83 El Nino peaked at 2.2°C.

I wonder if El Ninos are getting stronger. A 2016 article from Columbia University's Earth Institute says "It's a tough question to answer."

It's certainly true that ENSO seasons (July-June) with an El Nino are getting warmer, by about (eyeballing since 1970) 0.2°C/decade. The same as the globe overall:

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Saturday, July 07, 2018

Is Salem, Oregon Warming?

There have been some discussions, but not much data, over at Roy Spencer's site about the trend in Pacific Northwest temperatures, and in particular the trend in Salem, Oregon's temperatures.

Chuck Wiese linked to a chart he said was compiled by Mark Albright, showing Salem's annual mean daily maximum temperature, 1932-2013. But he couldn't provide the underlying data, or explain why the chart ends in 2013.

The National Weather Service gives monthly temperatures for Salem from 1892-present -- Tmax, Tmin, Precipitation and Snow. Some data are missing, with an "M" for that month. I only took an annual average only if there were no missing months. Here's what I get for Tmax (all temperatures in Fahrenheit):

I don't know where Albright or Wiese got their data, but the data I obtained shows a trend in Tmax of +0.15°F/decade.

Wiese explained why Albright began his plot in 1938:
Mark Albright chose 1938 as a starting point because before this time, Salem, OR was not a first order station. The conversion took place in 1937 and before this time, there were months of records missing from the station.
Starting at 1938, my data show a linear trend of +0.09°F/decade.

By the way, the trend of Tmax since 1970 is +0.31°F/decade.

I do find the trend from 1938-2013 to be zero. These last four years were very warm here, and make a significant difference.

So the fraud trick to Chuck Wiese's claim is: don't include all the data. Especially when they're warm.

PS: To be clear, I'm not faulting Mark Albright. He made a graph and it stands on its own. I'm calling out Chuck Wiese for trying to push data that aren't up-to-date.

Friday, July 06, 2018

We Just Had the 2nd-warmest La Nina Season

The ENSO season runs from July-June, so it just ended.

There was a weak La Nina this season, just as there was last. This one was a little weaker, and the temperature records went accordingly.

2016-2017 is still the warmest La Nina season, with 2017-18 a close second.

The 2017-2018 season saw a weak La Nina from October to March, according to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), as did 2016-2017. [ONI is the 3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W)]

The La Nina waters for 2017-18 were slightly colder than the 2016-17 La Nina temperatures, going by the average ONI. And the global temperature was slightly colder too, according to UAH for the lower troposphere and NOAA for the surface.

I've only looked at the temperatures for NOAA (surface) and UAH (lower troposphere). Going by UAH's temperature for the global lower troposphere, including, now, June's, 2017-8 was the second-warmest La Nina year since UAH records begin in late 1978.

The UAH LT's ENSO's season's average for 2017-8, +0.33 C, was just slightly behind the 2016-7 average of +0.36 C.

La Nina seasons keep getting warmer (except, barely, this year, but then the La Nina, while weak, was stronger than 2016-2017). So do El Nino seasons. So do neutral seasons.

I should put up a pretty graphic here, but instead I'll link to this one, which is slightly out-of-date but communicates the essence.

Warming Trend and Effects of El Niño/La Niña

Wednesday, July 04, 2018


Pacific Northwest Rural Warming

The person I debated on the Lars Larson show last week said that there's been no warming in Oregon except for the urban heat island effect. He just claimed it again on a blog, though, as always, presented no data to support his claim.

So I'll present some data for him, showing that many rural sites in Oregon do in fact show warming. Not all, but most:

Adding some more, from around Oregon, Washington and Idaho: