"Tribe" by Sebastian Junger

King George III of England caused the English colonies in America to rebel by trying to tax them without allowing them a voice in government. In this sense, democratic revolutions are just a formalized version of the sort of group action that coalition of senior males have used throughout the ages to confront greed and abuse. Thomas Paine, one of the principal architects of American democracy, wrote a formal pronunciation of civilization in a tract called Agrarian Justice: “Whether…civilization has most promoted or most injured the general happiness of man is a question that may be strongly contested,” he wrote in 1795. "[Both] the most affluent and the most miserable of the human race are to be found in the countries that are called civilized."

I got this from Tribe, Sebastian Junger's latest book. It's short but very good. Junger's thesis is that modern society, maybe just modern US society but I don't think so, has gotten so far removed from tribal life & community that it's no wonder so many people, perhaps mostly men, feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. In tribal life, such as the indigenous people in North American, everyone had a purpose. First, men needed to defend the tribe and they knew this was a primary responsibility of each one of them. They also had to hunt and gather and bring food back for the tribe (and not just to their own family). Men felt necessary and needed and a vital piece of their tribe/community. Women had children to replenish the tribe and prepare food for the tribe (again, not just their own family). Everyone lived in a definite community, they all knew each other, they'd grown up together and learned together and fought together and suffered together. There was also a great deal of equality and egalitarianism in their societies. Anyone who tried to get on top would be torn down by the others, as referenced in the quote up top. He writes about the thousands of white people who choose to live with the "Indians," after being abducted or choosing it on their own. Some would be rescued and rush right back to live with their tribe. There were almost no cases of Indians defecting to the other side. 

Another example Junger gives is the Bosnian war. Junger went into Sarajevo and lived amongst the people as Serbs bombed the hell out of the town from the surrounding hills. Very quickly, collections of apartment buildings would come together to share food, commiserate together and take care of one another. Teens huddled amongst themselves in deep underground bunkers and lived with one another, ate together, and laughed and loved together. No one was kept outside the group. He quotes more than one person whom he interviewed 20 years later who called wartime madness but also the best times of their lives. Even a happy time for some. They were in their own tribe and had people to take care of, talk to, be scared with and celebrate with. 

I can admit that both of these are likely simplifications. 

I'm about halfway through the book and am just starting to get into a section about modern warfare and the experiences of the soldiers. Many also recall it as some of their best days. (For example, the WW2 veterans who get together even now to see their buddies and tell their stories, stories they've maybe never shared with anyone else.) Junger cites many scientific studies that show veteran suicide and PTSD are more complex issues and do not appear randomly.

I can't wait to read the second half of this book. I can identify with it in that I also feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. I work remotely by myself, and although I live in a suburb I essentially live remotely. I got a taste of what Junger is talking about when I spent five months on the Appalachian Trail in 1996. (I didn't finish the Trail, only hiking 1500 miles because I partially tore two ligaments (I learned later) 500 miles in.) Even though I didn't complete the hike, it was some of the most memorable times of my life, because I had a definite goal, I was motivated, and, believe it or not, there was a tight linear trail community where everyone comes together because we were all suffering and learning together. Many other thru-hikers (who completed the entire 2100-mile trail) would and do say exactly the same thing, even if they can't quite express it. I wish I had anything like that kind of commitment and community today.

JD Vance and the Insanity of His Religion

This guy wants to have his finger on the nuclear button!!

Will Alberta Leave Canada?

This was a stupid post and I regret writing and posting it. I don't know much about it and I don't know what I was thinking. Apologies.

Will Alberta leave Canada? It's fossil fuels vs emissions cutbacks. Conservatives vs Liberals. Extraction vs conservation. Pipelines vs climate action. Cowboy hats vs toques. But Alberta has no coastline. Support for independence is only 25% to 33%. Ballot question 10 on October 19th will ask if the government should begin the process of preparing for a second, legally binding vote on separatism. Could Alberta be appeased if those in Ottawa allow a pipeline to the coast of British Columbia, carrying about 1 million barrels a day. (About 1% of global oil consumption; lots of carbon dioxide when burned, ~400,000 t CO2 per day.) Weird situation. Canada is a leader in per capita carbon emissions--hey man, it gets cold up there--but will give up on strong emissions from Alberta. The environment rarely wins.

In general I'm in favor of separatist movements. Smaller governments are better than larger governments, I believe. The only time I've ever talked to a state representative was when I wrote to one in New Hampshire about an obscure topic. He called me and we talked for an hour. But then, New Hampshire has the largest state legislature in the country with 400 members, about 1 representative for every 3200 citizens. I think that's a good ratio. I'd like to see the US divided up too. Why is liberal Oregon held hostage to the demands of red southern states with their very conservative, unreasonable policies? I think it's inevitable the US cracks up further down the timeline of our obvious decline. 

In the Pacific Northwest here there's talk about a country called Cascadia, but it's only manned, as far as I can tell, by political kooks and malcontents. Well meaning, but a little out there. Nothing that could possibly gain political traction. 

So I kind of hope Alberta secedes. (I guess. It's really none of my business.) Then maybe Quebec. Then maybe Texas. Then maybe Cascadia.

The Great Atom Debate

Did you know Ernst Mach was anti-atom? I didn't. He disputed their existence, and he and Ludwig Boltzmann argued about it for the rest of their lives.  

My good friend Paul Halpern, whom I knew well in graduate school and stay in touch with, has a book coming out: The Great Atom Debate, about this very disagreement. Paul is a wonderful and successful science writer and this is his 18th book, I believe. Here's a site to learn more about the book, and to pre-order it on several sites. Here's its Amazon site. It comes out in December. 

Mourning Dove

Did you know that it's "mourning dove" and not "morning dove?" I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know this until now, but happy that I learned. It makes a difference.

Thanks to Bob Dylan and his lyrics.

When I was a little kid I asked my mother who Richard Stands was. She said, who? I said, you know, like in the Pledge of Allegiance, "...and to the Republic for Richard Stands...." 

4% of Oregon has burned this year so far. Also, Trump is evil.

In making a comment here I did a little calculation: 2.3 million acres of Oregon have burned so far this year, as of about a week ago. 

That's 3.4% of the state!

It's one-third the area of Belgium.

It's already a record here, beating the last record in 2024. 

At the end of last month the Trump administration denied funding to fight two large wildfires in Oregon. (They did approve three others.) Why? Speculation is because he didn't win Oregon's electoral votes. How sociopathic is that? 

They/he also did it in California for last year's Los Angeles fires. 

There's heavy speculation it's because we didn't vote for him. 

"Trump denies disaster aid to four blue states, after approving aid to six red states."

For foreigners: blue states are states that did not vote for Trump in the 2024 election; red states did. (Reminder: in the US we vote by state. Whoever gets the most votes in a state gets all their electoral votes; votes are distributed by the electoral college and are proportional to population. 

They even admitted it in a legal brief:

White House admits it scrapped grants to blue states because they didn’t vote for Trump

Think about how sick this is. Literally, sociopathic, playing with people's lives and property.

It's utterly exhausting having a mentally ill president. 

Miscellaneous

 Chinese robot runs 100m sprint quicker than Usain Bolt’s world record | Sport | The Guardian. It also set a record in the men's half-marathon. Other humanoid robots in China set records in the standing high jump and running high jump.

Phoenix Arizona is forecasted to have the next several days with a high temperature of  +115°F (46°C). The US government just mandated they take a 21% cut in water from the Colorado River, along with Nevada and Colorado. There just isn't enough water in the river these days. 

Trump made 1,051 trades in his stock & bond portfolio in just June alone. Supposedly someone is managing his portfolio while he's in office. Supposedly.

"Paramedics Now Rolling Up to Medical Emergencies in Flying Hovercraft." Northern California. With applications like this and especially the delivery drones from Amazon, Walmart etc it's going to add to noise pollution nearly everywhere. Ugg. 

7.6 billion people will be able to see the asteroid Apophis when it passes by Earth at an altitude of only 20,000 miles (32,000 km). April 13, 2029. (A Friday, believe it or not. Friday the 13th.) It's 340 m long (1,120 ft). NASA now says there is zero chance it hits Earth. Will be viewable "across Australia, Asia, Africa, Europe, and eastern South America" for up to seven hours. Sorry North America. ESA: 

“Scientists believe that an asteroid as large as Apophis only comes this close to Earth once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” the ESA added in a Twitter/X post.

Climate Denial Killing Still More People

New York Times, today: "In One Week During Europe’s Record Heat Wave, Deaths Increased by 16,000." (Should be a free article, or you might need to first get a free NY Times account.)

There are all excess deaths, not just those from heat. So the spikes in excess deaths in November to January are due to respiratory illnesses such as the flu. There were 25,000 heat deaths earlier there this summer, so this makes 41,000 at least. Over 30,000 in India. (I wrote a recent Phys.org article about India.) 

NYT: "Most of the deaths were in northern countries — France, Belgium and Germany — that are not accustomed to such high temperatures and struggled to respond."

France is debating ("bickering") air conditioning. It doesn't help that they love their old buildings built in the Little Ice Age. 

Of course, A/C doesn't stop wildfires. Future people may be stuck in air-conditioned houses and apartments wearing masks because of all the wildfire smoke, unable to buy home insurance since the insurance companies have left that market (as they are in Florida, partly due to rising hurricane costs).

It's too bad no one foresaw all these problems several decades ago--we might have taken actions to stall the problem. 

It's now clear that climate denial -- and climate deniers -- kill people. Lots of people. Where are the prosecutors?

Only 2 in 5 Americans Give a Sh!t about Climate Change

From CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten:

I mean, just look at these numbers. Okay, top issue in a midterm vote — you can list up to three issues. The economy, not surprisingly, comes in at number one at 54%. Immigration, 28%. Look at climate change — it’s tied for 14th, tied for 14th, all the way down here at 3%. Johnny, I’m not the greatest mathematician in the world, but I sure as heck know that 54% is a whole heck of a lot higher than 3%. So despite the climate being so warm in the month of July, the hottest month on record here in the United States of America, the voters, simply put, do not say that climate change is going to be an issue on which they vote in the midterm election.

And you can see this 3% here, and you can see in these slides right here: “Say climate change is a very big problem.” In 2016, it was 40%. It was 40%. Look where we are in 2026 — it’s 39%, it’s 39%. Now, Johnny B, you’re talking about change. Where the change we have seen is partisanship, right?<

And what we can see is Republicans, more so than anybody else, have been shifting away from the idea that climate change is a top issue for them. Take a look at this — the least important issue for Republicans, it’s just at 14% in terms of saying that climate change is a very big problem. So we’re seeing a large partisan split, but when it comes together, Democrats are going in one direction, Republicans are going in another direction. But when you put those two together, the bottom line is we’re only talking about two in five Americans, both now and 10 years ago, saying that climate change is a very big problem.

Maybe a few more towns burning down will convince them. Higher home insurance rates in Florida (if homeowners can get it at all). A few more records (this July was the warmest month ever recorded in the continental US). Or more thousands of deaths.

Relative to a 1951-1980 baseline, July's USA48 temperature anomaly is 1.81°C. Relative to 1901-2000 the anomaly is 2.34°C. [NOAA's USA48 data starts in 1895.]

This decade-to-date is 0.53°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. The 30-year linear trend is 0.31°C/decade (0.55°F/decade). The total (linear) warming since 1895 is 1.33°C (2.39°F).

Two El Niño Graphs

El Niño is early and strong, already with a Niño3.4 SST anomaly above 2.0°C. It's like on of those 6 ft 6 in (198 cm) kids in seventh grade--the high schol basketball coaches are keeping a very close eye on him as he casually scores 48 points a game in youth basketball.

University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer, Niño 3.4 region:

From the Copernicus Marine Service.

The Nino 3.4 region coordinates are: 5N-5S, 120W-170W.

Book Review about Howard Zinn

I found this video from an interesting book review in the NY Times about Howard Zinn, the famed historian and author of A People's History of the United States. Zinn dared to write that, actually, America's history is actually pretty fucked up, with a huge amount of oppression. In this messed up country that kind of inflammation will get you both prosecuted and respected. I read it many years ago but lately, as I'm now > 65 yo and supposedly on the US health program for seniors, Medicare, but still find it very difficult to get affordable health care. Trump plans to make medication for seniors even more expensive, despite his hypocritical lying saying he would always protect Medicare.  So I'm listening more than ever and am angry more than ever.

Just wish most people speaking in this vid weren't all actors and celebrities.