It's the warmest August since their records start in 1979 (by 0.30°C!) and the 2nd-hottest month since 1979 (just 0.01°C below the record of February 2016).
This decade-to-date, 34 months into the new decade, is 0.27°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. (It's a short time interval, though, so not very meaningful.)
Every new decade UAH adjusts their anomalies to the latest 30 years (perhaps to keep the numbers smaller?). August's anomaly, with respect to 1980-2009, is 0.83°C, larger than I would have guessed.
When is 1.00°C going to appear?
Very likely even higher anomalies to come in the next few months as the El Nino gets rolling....
16 comments:
RSS has released August 2023:
2023 8 1.105 C
Not quite a record though. That belongs to Feb 2016:
2016 2 1.264 C
RSS Data's here: https://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v04_0.txt
I notice they show temps between the 60th and 82nd parallel. That's Northwest Territories, Alaska. The hottest month was Jan 2016 with 3.705C. August 2023 was 2.508C above average.
September UAH is 0.90C!
Any bets on whether that was the peak? It seems like it must be but... I'm not sure I'd put money on it.
ENSO probably won't peak till the end of the year. Might be more to come.
Good point.
I guess I'm glad I didn't bet. UAH has October, 2023 at +0.93C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, narrowly beating out Sept.
It's now December and the November anomaly was 0.91C.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2023/12/uah-global-temperature-update-for-november-2023-0-91-deg-c/
Two reasons to be gobsmacked. Anomalies are HIGH and the high anomalies have held for three months.
It's not just UAH. All the datasets are off the graph.
It does seem like we've peaked though. My guess is that in Feb we should see a return to the mean.
Three successive monthly temperatures about 0.7C above the expected norm for the early 2020s.
Perhaps a ropadope of various known causes, a reset of some kind or a genuine unknown unknown.
Until we get some idea of the causes, forecasting future figures is not a useful exercise
When they go up, they tend to stay up for a few months. We can probably look to 1998 for a template on how this one will behave. Prior to the 1998 spike, temperatures were typically below 0, with very few exceptions. Here's the 1998 spike:
1997.92 0.129
1998 0.335
1998.08 0.49
1998.17 0.345
1998.25 0.619
1998.33 0.517
1998.42 0.44
1998.5 0.379
1998.58 0.389
1998.67 0.273
1998.75 0.241
It looks like we're about at the peak of the current El-Nino.
Also, I predict "It hasn't warmed since 2023" will be the contrarian catchphrase well into the next decade. You're too late Moncton jr, I've already coined it!
A new high score: "2023 Was the Warmest Year In the 45-Year Satellite Record", but it does look like we're on our way back down from the recent peak.
UAH update: January comes in at +0.86 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up slightly from the December, 2023 anomaly of +0.83 deg. C.
So still hovering near the peak.
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