He had sailed for two hours, resting in the stern and sometimes chewing a bit of the meat from the martin, trying to rest and to be strong, when he saw the first of the two sharks.
"Ay ," he said aloud. There is no translation for this word and perhaps it is just a noise such as a man might make, involuntarily, feeling the nail go through his hands and into the wood.
Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and the Sea
Saturday, November 19, 2022
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Choosing to rehash the plot of a film he said he recently watched late at night, whose title he remembered as “Fright Night, Freak Night, or some type of night”, he said in rambling remarks: “I don’t know if you know, but vampires are some cool people, are they not? But let me tell you something that I found out: a werewolf can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that.“
So, I don’t want to be a vampire any more. I want to be a werewolf."
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Monday, November 14, 2022
Hershel Walker, campaigning yesterday:
"Now let me tell you this here: If we was ready for the green agenda, I'd raise my hand right now," he said. "But we're not ready right now! So don't let them fool you like this is a new agenda, this is not a new agenda! We're not prepared, we're not ready right now! What we need to do is keep having these gas-guzzling cars, because we got the good emissions under those cars. We're doing the best thing that we can!"
Video. Via Yahoo News.
The problem with America is voters. A specific subset of them. You know what I mean.
Saturday, November 12, 2022
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Wednesday, November 02, 2022
Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Monday, October 31, 2022
Greta Thunberg is boycotting the upcoming COP27 meeting in Egypt. She explains why in this video clip:COP27 is from from 6 November to 18 November.
Thursday, October 27, 2022
Interestingly, US energy consumption is essentially flat since the year 2000, between 100 to 105 exajoules (1 EJ = 1018 J). Even though population is increasing, per capita energy consumption is decreasing, from 12,900 watts in 1973 to 9,900 W in 2021.
We are now at “code red” on planet Earth. Humanity is unequivocally facing a climate emergency. The scale of untold human suffering, already immense, is rapidly growing with the escalating number of climate-related disasters. Therefore, we urge scientists, citizens, and world leaders to read this Special Report and quickly take the necessary actions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Sunday, October 23, 2022
If the increase in M2 caused any inflation, it occurred during Trump's administration, not Biden's.
Saturday, October 15, 2022
Remember these? Information used to be precious. Imagine not having the 1981 population of Bulgaria at your fingertips....
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Thursday, April 07, 2022
"According to the World Wildlife Fund, wild animal populations have decreased by 68 percent on average over the past 50 years." -- from the essay "Animal, Vegetable, Capital" by Ingrid Burrington, Lux Magazine, Issue 3, via Harper's, February 2022 pg 17.
It really sucks that vaccines became part of the culture wars just like everything else. pic.twitter.com/5OICtpOfCB— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) March 26, 2022
Friday, April 01, 2022
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Hopefully this surge will end with better weather. And by May 2nd, the start of the NHL playoffs. The Leafs are currently in third place in their division, but would face the Tampa Bay Lightning if the playoffs were held today. The Bolts are back-to-back champions and still have plenty of big bruisers, so the Maple Leafs will need all the home ice advantage they can get.
Sunday, March 27, 2022
Thursday, March 24, 2022
Monday, March 21, 2022
🔥Heat wave in Antarctica, +38 °C (+68 °F) above normal.— Dr. Robert Rohde (@RARohde) March 21, 2022
That's not an error, or a typo.
The remote research station at Dome C recorded a temperature nearly 40 °C above normal for this time of year, beating the previous March record by a startling 20 °C. pic.twitter.com/HkzydQyQ7A
"... [T]he warm conditions over Antarctica were spurred by an extreme atmospheric river, or a narrow corridor of water vapor in the sky, on its east coast. ... The excessive moisture from the atmospheric river was able to retain large amounts of heat..."
Sunday, March 20, 2022
Thursday, March 17, 2022
Excited to announce I'll be moving to @Penn as endowed Presidential Distinguished Professor, heading up new "Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media" (#PCSSM), w/ joint positions in @PennSAS/@AnnenbergPenn/@KleinmanEnergy/@PerryWorldHouse: https://t.co/XE7pnfQMg0— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) March 15, 2022
Tuesday, March 15, 2022
For decades, the population of the US has experienced shorter life expectancy and higher disease rates than populations in other high-income countries. The gap in life expectancy between the US and 16 peer countries increased from 1.9 years in 2010 to 3.1 years in 2018 and 4.7 years in 2020.1 The US health disadvantage is even worse in certain states, with states such as Alabama and Mississippi having the same life expectancy as Latvia (75 years).Someone should download these data and integrate under the curves to find the total difference in deaths. (I've already heard some of DeSantis's excuses: vaccine tourism, older population.) Woolf continues:
Disparities in health across the 50 states are growing, a trend that began in the 1990s. For example, in 1990, life expectancy in New York was lower than in Oklahoma, but the trajectories separated sharply in the 1990s and, by 2016, New York ranked third in life expectancy, whereas Oklahoma ranked 45th. By 2019, mortality rates at ages 25 to 64 years differed by a factor of 216% between the states with the highest mortality rate (565.1 per 100 000) and the lowest rate (261.9 per 100 000), up from 188% in 1999. The widening gap cannot be explained by changes in the racial and ethnic composition of states, because the same trend occurred within racial and ethnic groups.
For example, excess death rates in Florida and Georgia (more than 200 deaths per 100 000) were much higher than in states with largely vaccinated populations such as New York (112 per 100 000), New Jersey (73 deaths per 100 000), and Massachusetts (50 per 100 000). States that resisted public health protections experienced higher numbers of excess deaths during the Delta variant surge in the fall of 2021 (Figure). Between August and December 2021, Florida experienced more than triple the number of excess deaths (29 252) as New York (8786), despite both states having similar population counts (21.7 million and 19.3 million, respectively).And it's only going to get worse:
State control over health outcomes shows no signs of waning. Legislatures have passed and are considering numerous laws designed to transform elections, civil rights, school curricula, and climate policy. New laws and court decisions could affect health and health care and exacerbate inequities. The Texas abortion bill and other challenges to Roe v Wade, new state laws to nullify gun regulations, and other sweeping measures suggest that states will be wielding greater control over the health and safety of their populations. Increasingly, an individual’s life expectancy in the US will depend on the state in which they live....I'm afraid that the American public is, at least via their votes for primarily Republican legislatures and governors, deciding that, astonishingly, there are some things more important than their health and their lives.
States are laboratories for experimentation, but fragmented health policy has consequences. While other countries mounted a national response to COVID-19, the US was hobbled by 50 response plans and, to date, has lost more than 1 million lives. Although state governments have the right to set their own path and policies, the public should decide whether life expectancy should be part of the experiment.
Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Global price of wheat, percent increase over the last month:
The nominal price is in Euros/kg. What will hurt more, the price of wheat or the price of gas? I'm willing to pay both if that's what I'm asked to do to help win the Ukrainian War. I decided that after seeing this photograph.
Wednesday, March 02, 2022
“Europe offers another reminder to the U.S. that blocking fossil-fuel development here won’t keep carbon “in the ground.” It merely hands a strategic weapon to dictators that they will turn around and use against us.”
In fact, oil, gas and coal production are all up since Biden took office in January 2021:
The Biden administration has approved oil and gas permits on federal land at a faster clip than former President Donald Trump's final year, the U.S. still exports more crude oil and petroleum products than it imports and Keystone XL never started while much of the oil it would have transported got to market through rail and other means. Plus, the U.S. has never been closed off from oil imports, even bringing in 7.9 million barrels per day in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic when demand cratered.
Some people are eager to use the Ukraine crisis to blame Biden for everything, and to take advantage of it to further fossil fuel use even in light of the climate crisis (which Curry denies).
Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Sunday, February 27, 2022
Thursday, February 24, 2022
It's amazing how abstract all this seems until you see something like this:
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Still, it's delightful!
Here is a link to my slides: https://t.co/v5Mtj1LC1M— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) February 16, 2022
I'm only including the slides I showed, but I've included blank slides to keep the slide numbers the same.
Monday, February 14, 2022
- Those with higher incomes travel more and are more exposed to a wider group and variety of others as they go about their daily business, while the poor stay primarily in their local environment. (But then wouldn't COVID easily burn through those poor, local areas and essentially infect everyone?)
- Data collection and reporting are much better in wealthy areas than in poverty-stricken areas, so the results are biased towards counting cases among the wealthy, etc. down through the various income levels.
Thursday, February 10, 2022
If you're tired of people saying they're 'done with Covid', that they want to 'move on' from the pandemic, get 'back to normal'... even as 3,000 people die on a daily basis & while ignoring Long Covid, this angry monologue from me tonight... is for you:pic.twitter.com/045qQMuXNO— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) February 10, 2022
Monday, February 07, 2022
The emergency declaration was designed to give officers more “flexibility” to respond to the hundreds and sometimes thousands of truckers and their supporters who are gathered in the streets to denounce coronavirus measures, Mayor Jim Watson said Sunday. And, he said, the declaration reflects the “serious danger and threat to the safety and security of residents.”So far it seems no worse than you might see in any parking lot of a National Football League game in America on a Sunday afternoon in October, but clearly some right-wing Canadians have been taking notes. The whole thing seems surprising since Canadians seem down with vaccine mandates. This is from last August:
Fireworks were shot off, drivers blared their horns and streets remained blocked for the second weekend in a row, and Watson admitted Sunday that authorities were “outnumbered” and “losing this battle” against groups who were “calling the shots.”
Ottawa Police Service said in a statement Sunday it had launched over 60 criminal investigations amid the ongoing protests — including thefts, hate crimes and property damage. At least seven arrests had been made as of 9 p.m. Sunday local time in relation to property damage and other acts of “mischief,” police said. “Multiple vehicles and fuel have been seized,” the statement said.
Among the more than 500 tickets issued this weekend were notices of “excessive honking” and seat belt violations.
On Sunday morning, police said officers had issued more than 450 tickets since the day before, including to trucks with no insurance and obstructed license plates. Another 100 tickets were announced Sunday evening, including to people who were driving the wrong way or had alcohol readily available.
Police also said that it had issued a warning to the public that they could be subject to charges if they were found to be supplying demonstration trucks in the red zone with fuel.
According to a recent Ipsos poll, in light of the recent mandate that vaccination will be mandatory for air and train travel as well as for public servants, Canadians show that not only do they agree with these measures, but they would support imposing a vaccine mandate for healthcare workers and teachers as well. A strong majority agree with the recently announced mandatory vaccination for federal public servants (80%) and the requirement for proof of vaccination for flying on an airplane or taking a train international or inter-provincially (82%). Similar proportions support mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers (84%), for teachers (81%), or vaccine passports to enter restaurants, gyms, or other indoor spaces (72%).I saw that the protest has now spread to Toronto and Vancouver, at least. Perhaps there's something more going on here than a protest over just vaccines, that's it become about Trudeau's policies in general, I don't know. I hope my Canadian readers can provide some insight.
Sunday, February 06, 2022
Update: Here's the true story of this train and its rescue, and more pictures.
I found this picture on, I think, YouTube. All I know of it is that it was taken by an American GI, of Jews leaving a train that was on its way to a Nazi concentration camp, a train the Americans (Allies?) has stopped, liberating the prisoners onboard.
I find this picture to be joyous and tragic and haunting and uplifting all at once, and more. I know the woman and her child in front are saved, in the center of the picture, but the person who really gets to me is the women in back of them on the left, in the black coat with her arms out and a scarf or hood over her head. I can only guess, but she looks like she was just a few minutes ago beyond all hope. She looks like a ghost, like a skeleton, like she was just dead. She has black pits for eyes, sunken cheeks, huge forehead. And now she seems risen from the dead, out of a grave, just now realizing she is alive again, that she is no longer a breathing corpse but is just now again a human being. She can't smile wide enough. She's not yet on even ground but she knows it is there at the top of the hill, and even though her face is unclear it seems to have a look I've never seen before. Or maybe I'm imaging it. But that's part of what a great picture does.
Thursday, February 03, 2022
A big reason is that I don't have television. Or at least cable TV. I don't get NBC, the network carrying the Winter Olympics.
I gave up on television in 2008, a good decision for me. I'm not saying everyone should do it. You have to be a bit of a misanthrope. I'm not going to linger over that issue here. It always sounds like bragging anyway, when it's just a lifestyle choice. I still have Amazon Prime, Netflix in the last month, and watch YouTube Shorts. And hockey on ESPN+ on my big desktop screen.
I could have TV if I wanted it, of course. I even would if I wanted just to watch the Winter Olympics. I'd subscribe to the NBC's Winter Olympics via their streaming service, Peacock, or Fubo TV or Sling TV maybe or some similar bundler who carries them (if they are, not sure).
But to the point, I'm not watching the Winter Olympics on purpose.
A big reason is China's human rights abuses. They're not slowing down and no one is really trying to stop them. I'm not pretending I am either. I'm nothing really.
With that is NBC's ignoring these abuses for the sake of profits, and other corporate sponsors doing the same.
The official worldwide partners of the Olympics are Airbnb, Alibaba, Allianz, Atos, Bridgestone, Coca-Cola, Intel, Omega, Panasonic, Procter & Gamble, Samsung, Toyota, and Visa.Of course I'm not perfect on this. I have a couple of Visa cards I'm not getting rid of. I think my laptop has an Intel chip and my next laptop likely will as well. I may drink a couple of Diet Cokes in the next couple of years, though vastly fewer than I once did. Proctor & Gamble probably makes more of what I buy--soap and toothpaste and whatnot--than what I'm aware of.
But I'm not going to be an easy chump.
I'm also not going to acquiesce to the vast and obvious corruption of the IOC (International Olympic Committee), who seems to no longer know any bounds of vice and corruption. A couple of weeks ago I read about their requirements for cities hoping to host a winter or summer games, and it actually included the requirement that the host city provide a separate lane on their streets for the use of only Olympic officials for travel between Olympic venues.
These people think they are fucking royalty.
This kind of thing, plus all the horrendous, seemingly constant bribery that takes place to garner the right to host the Olympics in a certain country, are just revolting.
It's now all politics, ideology, nationalism, marketing, corporatism -- a perfect blend of a 21st-century dystopian novel in the making, come to real life. As if nothing else were ever possible, as if nothing else could have ever even come to pass.
Yes, the athletes worked hard to get there. I'm sorry, I can't satisfy everyone, they'll be fine.
So I'm just going to stay home and suffer the pandemic, suffer cabin fever and gray Oregonian skies, watch hockey, read too late, chat too late, blog too late, watch Amazon Prime and Netflix too late and fall asleep too early. Daylight Savings Time starts on March 13th. Maybe then it's OK to poke my head up and start looking around again. If not I'll hunker down some more with my cat and we'll stay here until god damn summer if we have to, I swear, and I just might hold my breath until then too.
An amazing assist:
SIDNEY. CROSBY.— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 26, 2022
What a feed. 😱 pic.twitter.com/lotpZYqpGX
Crosby almost makes an amazing one-handed deflection for a goal in overtime, then unfortunately completely runs over the goalie Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets. Unfortunately. No penalty (there were only 11 seconds left in OT anyway) but Crosby did at least ask if Buycky was OK. Oh yeah, Crosby then went on to score the only goal in the shootout series, winning the game for the Penguins.
Alors a qui la faute Dubois ? Où Crosby?— Jeudepuissance (@jeudepuissance) January 23, 2022
Je vous laisse la main.
Le pauvre Hellebuyck pic.twitter.com/doRyJch6pi
Jumps up out of the way while blocking the goaltender for an Evgeni Malkin goal:
Evgeni Malkin picks up his first goal of the season with a bomb on the power play, along with a beautiful screen from Sidney Crosby. pic.twitter.com/2S9UI8L5b6— Danny Shirey (@DannyShireyPGH) January 12, 2022
I already mentioned Crosby's banked empty net goal, completing a hat trick for the night:
Um, did Sidney Crosby just score a hat trick... by accident? pic.twitter.com/74v5COsRBW— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) January 22, 2022
It's surprising because it looks like, from the following point-of-view, the eruption quickly covered the 73-km mark and further:
(Sorry, this is a YouTube Short, YouTube's answer to TikTok, and I don't see how to embed it.)
Friday, January 28, 2022
Misuse of the word ‘endemic’ in relation to COVID-19 is encouraging a misplaced complacency, says evolutionary virologist Aris Katzourakis. A disease can be endemic as well as both widespread and deadly. Malaria, for example, is an endemic disease that killed more than 600,000 people in 2020....
That article continues
...In other words, a disease can be endemic and both widespread and deadly.... Ten million fell ill with tuberculosis that same year  and 1.5 million died. Endemic certainly does not mean that evolution has somehow tamed a pathogen so that life simply returns to ‘normal’.So what does "endemic" really mean?
As an evolutionary virologist, it frustrates me when policymakers invoke the word endemic as an excuse to do little or nothing. There’s more to global health policy than learning to live with endemic rotavirus, hepatitis C or measles.
Stating that an infection will become endemic says nothing about how long it might take to reach stasis, what the case rates, morbidity levels or death rates will be or, crucially, how much of a population — and which sectors — will be susceptible. Nor does it suggest guaranteed stability: there can still be disruptive waves from endemic infections, as seen with the US measles outbreak in 2019. Health policies and individual behaviour will determine what form — out of many possibilities — endemic COVID-19 takes.
To an epidemiologist, an endemic infection is one in which overall rates are static — not rising, not falling. More precisely, it means that the proportion of people who can get sick balances out the ‘basic reproduction number’ of the virus, the number of individuals that an infected individual would infect, assuming a population in which everyone could get sick. Yes, common colds are endemic. So are Lassa fever, malaria and polio. So was smallpox, until vaccines stamped it out.One thing is for sure: ignorance, misunderstanding, misinformation, and disinformation will continue to be endemic, at best, with little-to-no likelihood of a vaccine.
It had already been starting to appear in many other countries, and now it's shown up in Texas, where it's called "stealth omicron," because
You cannot identify the type of variant through a PCR test like you can with omicron. Genomic sequencing has to be conducted in a specialized lab to identify the variant, which takes longer.So more reason to stay home, if you needed one.
In Denmark, where stealth omicron cases are rapidly increasing, it went from 20% of cases in December, to 45% of cases two weeks ago, and now it’s about 65% of cases. “It’s moving fast, it’s taking over the landscape,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, infectious disease specialist at University of California San Francisco.
Sunday, January 23, 2022
Um, did Sidney Crosby just score a hat trick... by accident? pic.twitter.com/74v5COsRBW— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) January 22, 2022
Friday, January 21, 2022
The Kaiser Family Foundation has published COVID-19 case and death numbers, by state, as of 1/20/22. They are, unfortunately, not surprising.
I'd just like to give some kudos to my governor, Kate Brown, who has maintained an indoor mask mandate here in Oregon since March 2020. Here near Salem everyone has been quite cooperative and still are. (I've heard stories that in red Oregon, on the east side of the Cascade Mountains, it's entirely different. But only a fraction of the population lives in that part of the state -- Western Oregon has 75% of the state's population.) From these data it looks like the mandate has made a real difference, and although some people give her grief for maintaining the mandate, it looks to have made a real difference.
Utah is interesting -- high case rate, low death rate.
Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Perhaps most diabolically, the physicist kept a record of his abuse in his diaries, even justifying his actions by claiming he had a right to the girls due to his genius.
Walter Moore, author of the biography “Schrödinger, Life and Thought” published in 1989, said that the physicist’s attitudes towards women “was essentially that of a male supremacist.” Disgustingly, the biography seemed to downplay and even romanticize his abusive habits, and describes him as having a “Lolita complex.”
Schrödinger also attempted a relationship with a different 12-year-old girl, disgustingly writing in his journal that she was “among the unrequited loves of his life.” However, he decided not to pursue her after a family member voiced their concerns that the physicist was a, you know, unrepentant abusive predator.
The Irish Times article from which the Futurism article is sourced is available only to subscribers, but apparently it says there is a petition to rename a lecture hall at Dublin’s Trinity University that’s named after Schrödinger.
I won't be surprised if, given the environment on campuses these days, there's a small movement to rename his equation and cat, but I doubt that will succeed. What do you think?
Monday, January 17, 2022
At 1.2°C of global warming, with current pace, we will hit 1.5°C in 2033 and 2°C by 2060. With last 7 years being warmest on record, 2021 among them, we have strong confirmation of the global climate crisis as shown in excellent analysis by @BerkeleyEarth https://t.co/MU3ub7cfrr pic.twitter.com/O5WnIo0aD0— Johan Rockström (@jrockstrom) January 16, 2022
Reminder: this tweet won't display properly in the Edge browser. Google's little joke, I guess.
Clearly median family income is barely, if that, keeping up with gas prices, and that's only in recent years. And now falling behind again.
And just as clearly, median family income isn't keeping up with personal income per capita -- evidence of the widening income inequality, I guess.
Friday, January 14, 2022
The personal income data is annual, so it ends in 2020.
So, at least for the average person, gas prices surged ahead under the oilman Bush, but income is now outpacing the price of gas over the last 30 years.
Even if you started working in 2010, you're still ahead, assuming you're getting the average increase in personal income.
But it never seems that way, does it?
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
Tuesday, January 11, 2022
A high quality image record of multiple adverse rapidly increasing climate change indicators by Ed Hawkins, to which I added ocean acidification. pic.twitter.com/O6EYutKvcS— Peter D Carter (@PCarterClimate) January 9, 2022
Friday, January 07, 2022
On the other hand, it's surprising how little you have to do to be labeled a "class act" when you're already a superstar.
Seriously though, I've never heard of a classless thing Sidney Crosby has ever done.
OK, maybe this. But it was against the Flyers, cross state rivals, cross state haters, who surely deserved it.