Monday, June 16, 2014

El Niño is Fizzling

The once-burgeoning El Niño looks to be fizzling out -- the latest Niño3.4 SST anomaly has dropped out of the lower border of El Niño territory (≥ 0.5 C):


Maybe it's too soon to call it a complete failure...so keep your party hat on for another week or two. But for now, someone turn the music down, OK?

9 comments:

Patrik Lindenfors said...

Party pooper...

dave said...

Thanks for keeping us posted on this.... interesting times.

Another indecisive update:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/atmosphere-ripe-for-el-nino-17590

“We’re nicely on track for a weak to moderate, but still potentially impactful” El Niño in the fall to winter months, apparently

J Martin said...

As we are in a cool phase of the PDO super El Ninos are unlikely, the 2012 El Nino fizzled out. An El Nino may arrive in late 204, more likely 2015, but is unlikely to have a significant impact on global atmospheric temperature.

We can expect La Nina to dominate for the next 24 years of the PDO cycle, interspersed with some weak El Nino's.

You can put your party hats back into storage for a generation.

Paul S said...

Pacific equatorial upper ocean temperatures peaked only at a moderate level in April. That quickly made a strong El Niño unlikely in the near future, but conditions are still such that some form of El Niño is very likely this year. Typically the upper ocean temperature peak occurs about four months prior to peak Nino3.4.

On PDO, it's obviously difficult to appreciate transitions while they're happening but the JISAO PDO index shows the last five monthly values are all positive, each higher than the last, and the May value is the highest since 2005, by quite a distance. The processes which manifest in what we call PDO appear to be doing something quite different from what we've seen over the past decade.

The indications are that something more substantial is occurring in the Pacific than a transitory El Niño.

Michael Doran said...

David
Have you ever looked at CO2 as a conductivity variable or looked at the work of Chandler and tornadoes, which are described by him as having an electrical complexity?

http://charles-chandler.org/Geophysics/Tornadoes.php

David Appell said...

No, I haven't heard of this. Thanks.

Michael Doran said...

Joe Bastardi tweeted about you in a not so nice way a couple days ago. I have been writing on his facebook page about this electrical complexity and CO2. He hasn't responded because, well, I think he one way communicates and then the computer puts up posts on his FB page. (I did a search under his name and facebook--that's how I found his page). Anyway, that's how I found out who you are--he insulted you on his FB/twitter. If you want to read some more of my thoughts on the electrical complexity I post on climatechangedebate.org yahoo or lately on Bastardi's FB page.

David Appell said...

Yes, I saw that, but thanks. No problem. After all, I've said some not nice things about him:

http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/03/joe-bastardi-idiot-liar-or-both.html

Michael Doran said...

I put up some more thoughts on the electrical complexity and carbonation off the California coast and the drought on both my facebook page and at www.skywarnforum.com
Mike