Bizarro Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic Sea Ice is acting weird. Here's the volume as modeled by PIOMAS. {Really this is just an excuse for me to try datawrapper.de, because Excel charts have never looked good and by now look like something from the late 1900s.} But it is strange how the SIV has been basically flat for the last 15 years. (Arctic sea ice extent is just as unusual.) 

Here is a conference presentation screen capture I captured from the leading PIOMAS modeler in Sept 2014:

I think this was from a Cliff Maas blog post or comment I read in 2017, but can't find it exactly. The screen capture looks like it's from a conference. 

Anyway it's very wrong. Actually the decline, linearly regressed, is about 1/1.5, now 1/6.  

Lesson?: beware of making climate predictions unless it's about mean global surface temperature, and even then ENSOs mess you up.

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So why is there a "pause" in Arctic melting? This paper on ESS Open Archive (?) goes into it. It's not peer reviewed, which is unfortunate. Given that, here's the abstract:

So it's maybe worse, going back 20 years (to 2005). Could last 5-10 more years. (Not convenient, given my lifespan.) 

So, internal variability, which is nearly impossible to explain to deniers.

Conquering the Universe

"Just because some of us can read and write and do a little math, that doesn't mean we deserve to conquer the Universe."

Kurt Vonnegut

CO2 > 430 ppm

Atmospheric carbon dioxide has cracked the 430 ppm level at the Mauna Loa Observatory in on Hawaii. 

Here's NOAA's daily source for the data; the image above is from Daily CO2.

In fact, atmospheric CO2 at MLO peaked this year at 431.13 ppm on 27-April-2025. Last year it peaked at 428.59 ppm on 26-April-2024. That's only a 2.45 ppm increase, maybe a touch below the recent average, maybe due to the relative ENSO states. 2024 as a year (not a season) was somewhat on the La Nina-side, with this year slightly towards the El Nino-side. (I think.)

So, it's not clear if next year will break 435 ppm. Anyway the fascists might have stopped all US scientific measurements by then. (Yes, I know it's measured at many other places around the globe, but as far as I know none of them has the longevity of the Mauna Loa data.)

"They Haven't Started and We're Almost Done"

Suppressing the Costs of Climate Change

The fascists have decided to stop keeping track of the costs of climate change. Free link to NY Times story.

If you don't keep track of it, it's like it doesn't exist. This is hard for me to wrap my head around at the moment.

50 Years at 0.30°C/decade

The 50-year linear trend for the Hadley Central England Temperature (HadCET) is a very healthy worrisome 0.30°C/decade.

Without including any autocorrelation, because I don't feel like calculating it today, the 2-sigma uncertainty is 0.07°C/decade.

Over 50 years that's an increase of 1.52°C (2.73°F).

Also, the 10-year moving average reached a record high in April at 10.7°C. (That's an absolute number, not an anomaly.) 

HadCET is measured over a fairly broad area of...central England...bounded by an approximate triangle from Lancaster in the north of England to Bristol in the southwest to London in the southeast. Former homes of such famous people as Gollum (well, actor Andy Serkis), Blackbeard the Pirate and Charles the Darwin, son of Robert, a wealthy society doctor and financier, and grandson of Erasmus the Darwin, a (inhale) "natural philosopher, physiologist, slave-trade abolitionist, inventor, freemason, and poet" (exhale). 

Via Wikipedia.

Caught Only Half the Time

Meowthematics >> Mathematics
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