From NOAA's monthly media briefing:
Other: Alaska in 3rd consecutive warm winter with no deep cold, statewide.
"Regarding El Nino:
- El Niño is now past its peak intensity in term of SST anomaly values
- transition to ENSO neutral is anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016
- Enhanced odds of La Niña are forecast by late summer and early fall" [about 50%; too soon to make forecasts of how strong a La Nina might be].
Still uncertain if convection from this El Nino will bring record warmth in troposphere.
Drought Outlook: drought to persist in most of Oregon, Idaha, and northern and southern California. Drought to persist in central California but with some improvement.