Monday, January 19, 2015

How to Make the Hiatus Disappear... one simple graph:


David Friedman said...

This shows that temperatures were rising in the past, not that they continue to rise. If, as I think the data show, temperatures have been roughly flat since 2002, you would get the pattern you show with the final decade warmer than the previous decade, although not by as much as that was warmer than the decade that preceded it.

Try doing a straight line linear fit to temperatures since 2002 and see what you get. I tried it last year, using the webbed NASA data, and got a slightly negative slope. My guess is that adding in 2014 would make it slightly positive but still with zero well inside the range of uncertainty.

Harry Twinotter said...

The decadal averages are very persuasive. There is no doubt global warming is happening. The "hiatus" is shown for what it is, just a slow down of the rate of temperature increase.