Thursday, June 02, 2016

1972: Walter Cronkite Warns of a Coming Ice Age


tonylearns said...

that was weird

David in Cal said...

David -- it is honorable of you to point out that scientists (more precisely, some scientists) were wrong about climate in 1972. That leads to the possibility that scientists might not be right today.

I'm not sure what it proves, but John Holdren, the President's science advisor, was a zealous supporter of the global cooling risk back in 1972. He's now a zealous supporter of the global warming risk.


David Appell said...

As always, David, you're absolutely wrong. But at least you're reliable.

Scientists weren't wrong in 1972. Cronkite reported on *ONE* scientist, Lamb. Lamb was wrong.

A literature survey of that time found there was no cooling consensus:

"The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus," W. Peterson et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1325–1337, 2008

In fact, by 1965 plenty of scientists had already been warning about global warming from the buildup of greenhouse gases, and by the late '60s climate models were calculating the warming expected from CO2. List of some papers and reports here:

David Appell said...

You might find this fun: in 1969 Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then an aide to President Nixon, warned that we needed a monitoring system of CO2 for fears of global warming:

A report to the Johnson administration warned of CO2-caused global warming in 1965:

“Restoring the Quality of Our Environment,” Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee (1965), pp. 111-133.,%201965,%20Restoring%20the%20Quality%20of%20Our%20Environment.pdf

Looks like Cronkite didn't do his homework.

Richard Mallett said...

In his 1977 book "Climate: Present, Past and Future" (2 volumes) Lamb predicted cooling on the time scale of years, warming on the scale of centuries, and an ice age on the scale of millennia. The IPCC used his 1965 graph of Central England Temperature in its 1990 report.

As you indicate, it was Cronkite that was wrong, not Lamb. We still use the Lamb Weather Types today.

David Appell said...

Thanks Richard. What reason did Lamb give for century-scale warming? Anthro GHGs?

Richard Mallett said...

CO2 from fossil fuels, and the warmimg would continue for some time after fossil fuels are exhausted - he did not consider voluntary reduction / abandonment of fossil fuels.

Richard Mallett said...

Sorry - that should be 'reduction / abandonment of fossil fuel use'

Harry Twinotter said...

My thoughts exactly - the media were wrong in that case. And Cronkite did not appear to be taking his own report seriously anyway.

David Appell said...

Richard wrote:
"CO2 from fossil fuels, and the warmimg would continue for some time after fossil fuels are exhausted"

Yes, but we now know warming is essentially forever.

"The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate," David Archer (University of Chicago), 2008.

Richard Mallett said...

I get an 'Object not found' error.

David Appell said...

Richard, so Google it.

Richard Mallett said...

Ah, it's a book. At Amazon UK it receives :-
3 *****
2 **
1 *

At Amazon USA it receives :-
46% *****
35% ****
8% ***
5% **
6% *

Not good enough to warrant my buying it.

David Appell said...

So borrow it at your fucking library.

If you decide what books to read based on stars on Amazon, you're an idiot.