4 of 6 Projections Have Annual Temperature Above 1.5°C

Projections for the annual global temperature anomaly from six different groups, via Zeke Hausfather at Skeptical Science. All will be the warmest year in their data record. Doubt it will make any difference to the deniers.

Thanks to commentator EM.

How a Canadian is Born

Brilliant.

Copernicus: 2024 Likely First Year Above 1.5°C

 October's temperature anomaly, relative to 1850-1990, from Copernicus:

For annual temperatures. 2024 is through October; year-to-date anomaly=1.59°C. This will likely be the first year the annual temperature is above 1.5°C. (Last year it was 1.48°C.) Nov24 and Dec24 have to average 1.06°C or higher for the year to be 1.5°C. Seems very likely.

I wish they wouldn't color the tops (halfway through and higher) with darker orange, bordering on red; it biases the view. Just use one solid color and let us draw our own conclusions. 

Betting Market Doesn't Look Good

8:29 pm Eastern time:

Who's Winning the Election ?!?

I'm thinking that the best way to gauge the presidential election in real time might by following the betting markets. After all, these traders are buying and selling in real time based on whatever scraps of information (or rumors or gossip or misinformation) they can find. These markets were skewed for the last few weeks because some big buyers ("whales") were buying a lot of Trump shares, raising the price dramatically (and, some think, giving Trump another excuse to dispute the election). But now that it's push-come-to-shove that should be over and they're looking to make money based on reality and the whatever "information" is available to them.

With that, here's how the PredictIt Presidential Market has been going today. Trump is up, but the difference is now trending down.

Of course, the site has their own graph which is updated in real time:

More Map Porn

This circle holds half the world's population (of humans):

Young Voters Discover Trump is a Piece of Sh!t.

Here is longer audio of the Trump "grab her by the pussy." I've never heard this before, from the beginning.

 
Yes, people do lots of things for love & sex. Not all are the proudest moment of our lives. But most of us don't assault people. And who the F brags about it like this if they do?? And to the media, of all places.

 
Anyway I feel I have to post this because I've never heard it before. It's upsetting young Gen Z people who are voting for the first time but never knew this happened....as it should. 

What woman or Christian could vote for this piece of shit? Or any man who cares about women? I just don't get it. I don't understand what's happening in that half of America.

@toxicthotsyndrome @miss redacted✨🪩🩷🇵🇸 ♬ original sound - RepublicanVotersAgainstTrump

The Scale of Lake Powell (3 mm = 1 BL)

 The other day I noticed that the level (elevation) of Lake Powell in the US changed by 0.01 ft:

I thought it would be fun to see how much water is in the 0.01 ft (= 3 mm). Subtracting the contents gives

785 acre-feet 

= 970,000 m³ 

= 0.97 Mm3 

= 260 M gallons 

= 968 ML. 

≈ 1 billion liters

where L=liter. (using little L -- "l" -- for liter can get confusing).

So a water rise of 3 millimeters is about a billion liters of water. 

(I assumed vertical edges on the lake, so I can approximate the rise as a being in a box with nice vertical edges. But probably not a good assumption for more than that.)

PS: It's Excel's fault if I made any calculation errors. It always is. 

Stupidity in America

The US has done much better after getting out of the Trump depression than most other countries:

Yes, Trump and his stupidity are responsible for the 1Q20 to 3Q20. Biden wasn't even elected until 4Q20 and didn't take office until 1Q21. 

It's all on Trump. His MAGA supporters really are too stupid to understand this. Simple data and they can't understand it. Or how well the Biden economy has done post 1Q21 when he was sworn in. 

Shear stupidity, nothing but, is going to drive a stake into the heart of America. Just watch. It's already happening. Stupid people who just can't think.

Maybe we deserve it. Probably, This country is a complete mess.

"I Can Fix Stupid"

Things are really starting to get crazy in parts of America:

A regional public health department in Idaho has outright banned COVID-19 jabs, the Associated Press reported Friday. The Southwest District Health Department board, which governs six counties along the Idaho-Oregon border, voted 4-3 against the recommendations of the district’s medical director, Dr. Perry Jansen. “Our request of the board is that we would be able to carry and offer those [vaccines], recognizing that we always have these discussions of risks and benefits,” Jansen said at the meeting last month. “This is not a blind, everybody-gets-a-shot approach. This is a thoughtful approach.” The ban appears to be the first such instance of a U.S. governmental body blocking inoculations, the AP noted.

If I'm reading this correctly, a local state clinic in the state of Idaho will no longer vaccinate people against COVID. 

Because they can't understand the difference between science and conspiracies. This is medieval.

I saw a little cartoon a few years ago. A woman in it says, "You can't fix stupid." A COVID virus replies to her, "I can fix stupid." 

So Perfectly Canadian

Mean Center of Population of Canada:

 

Source: a Canadian

Canada is Kinda Weird

This is a little old, but here's a map of Canada divided into four areas of equal populations, about 8.6 million each. (Canada's total population in 2024 is 41.0 million.) About the same as Virginia in the US.... It's almost like Canadians want to be as far south (warm) as possible, given their national border. Except for the yellow Canadians. Probably like Alaskans... Anyway, I think Canada has about the right-size population for a decent country--not too many, not too few. Maybe a bit too many though. 

Nota bene: But Canadians aren't weird! I've never met a Canadian who wasn't a nice person. (Traveled there a lot for work in 1993-94.)