Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Omicron Less Severe Than Delta, But More Contagious

So it appears, based on a preliminary study in Scotland, that the omicron variant of COVID is more transmissible but less severe than the delta variant.

Perhaps good news for individuals, but bad news for hospitals.

From the Washington Post, about a study conducted in Scotland with apparently a population with characteristics close to the US:

The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, found that people infected with the omicron variant were almost 60 percent less likely to enter the hospital than those infected with delta, the globally dominant variant is being eclipsed rapidly.

The Scottish scientists said that recently vaccinated people appear to have some protection against symptomatic infection from omicron but less so than against delta. A third dose or booster of an mRNA vaccine was associated with a 57 percent reduction in the odds of developing symptomatic covid-19. Boosters gave better protection against the delta variant — more than 80 percent.

and

That group, led by Neil Ferguson, reported that those infected by omicron were 15 to 20 percent less likely to go to an emergency room with severe symptoms and 40 percent less likely to be hospitalized overnight, when compared with those infected by delta.

But they say the numbers are too small to reach definitive conclusions.

Still, those aren't odds I'm interested in playing. The unvaccinated clearly don't care anyway, but will no doubt use this as justification to stay unvaccinated, even though many of them will still die.

Moreover

Ferguson also urged caution.

“Our analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction in the risk of hospitalization associated with the omicron variant compared with the delta variant,” he said. “However, this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the omicron variant.”

Ferguson stressed that given the high transmissibility of the omicron variant, “there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks.”

To my surprise, new US COVID cases on Tuesday were down from Monday, 189,030 compared to 276,389. But they'll be higher today. We'll see how much higher. 

6 comments:

Balázs said...

Hi David, [an omitted but very long rant about anti-vaxxers' and, more generally, science deniers' stupidity]. Anyway, stupidity is not an explanation. We (humankind) have always had an approx. constant ratio of stupid people among our ranks. How come they are so prominent today? Furthermore, how is it possible that vaccination is not compulsory during the only pandemic in modern times? How was it possible that during the bullshit storm called "Climategate" scientists were actually afraid? There was a distinct possibility that a clueless university or research administrator would do an at least "symbolic" sacrifice of a prominent scientist. (Okay, in the end, science prevailed.) So again, why does stupidity have so much power today? Why are we so extremely un- and misinformed in an age where the flow of information is supposed to be the least restricted during the whole age of our species? I was a (young) adult in the 80s. People (including stupid people) were much well informed and more intellectually curious that day. The difference is perceptible during my lifetime.

MANTSH said...

Regarding Monday's cases being higher than Tuesday's, Monday usually has the highest case counts of the week because of residual cases spilling over from the weekend. The drop on Tuesday is expected.

David Appell said...

Thanks MANTSH, that's a good point.

Balázs, those are excellent questions that don't get enough attention. They're almost too big to think about. Or at least to figure out. Do you have any thoughts?

The big changes are mass media (cable TV) and the Internet/Web, so it's easy to blame them. Maybe too easy. I think in the US, Watergate really started this country on a slide downward, where people saw clear evidence of corruption at the highest level, so much so that the president resigned, and their attitude toward government and politicians has never been the same since. But I don't know, I'm just mouthing what others have said. The anti-vax movement reaches far beyond the US, so that can't explain it.

I came across this book just the other day:

Truth Decay
An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life
by Jennifer Kavanagh, Michael D. Rich
RAND Corporation, 2018
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2314

From the description page:
"...These trends have many causes, but this report focuses on four: characteristics of human cognitive processing, such as cognitive bias; changes in the information system, including social media and the 24-hour news cycle; competing demands on the education system that diminish time spent on media literacy and critical thinking; and polarization, both political and demographic."

Not sure I'll read this but I'll put it out here.

I admit, like you, this topic leaves me very puzzled. I suspect it does most people. And that's scary.




said...
Hi David, [an omitted but very long rant about anti-vaxxers' and, more generally, science deniers' stupidity]. Anyway, stupidity is not an explanation. We (humankind) have always had an approx. constant ratio of stupid people among our ranks. How come they are so prominent today? Furthermore, how is it possible that vaccination is not compulsory during the only pandemic in modern times? How was it possible that during the bullshit storm called "Climategate" scientists were actually afraid? There was a distinct possibility that a clueless university or research administrator would do an at least "symbolic" sacrifice of a prominent scientist. (Okay, in the end, science prevailed.) So again, why does stupidity have so much power today? Why are we so extremely un- and misinformed in an age where the flow of information is supposed to be the least restricted during the whole age of our species? I was a (young) adult in the 80s. People (including stupid people) were much well informed and more intellectually curious that day. The difference is perceptible during my lifetime.

2:32 AM
MANTSH said...
Regarding Monday's cases being higher than Tuesday's, Monday usually has the highest case counts of the week because of residual cases spilling over from the weekend. The drop on Tuesday is expected.

David Appell said...

Oops, left some text on the bottom of my comment that I copied there to remind myself what I was writing about....

Balázs said...

Yeah, I have some thoughts about it. The "obvious" side of the story is evidently the fact that information can be freely accessed and _shared_, so as bullshit, and nowadays the social media magnifies the effect of bullshit greatly. Actually, any serious scientific explanation in any field that is outside one's expertise is pretty hard to understand. And anyway, most people are simply not good in the systematic logical proof process that you need for this.

It's interesting (and likely very controversial) to note here that in the old Eastern Bloc (where I'm from) publications were scientifically assessed, and no pseudo-science could be published. I know, censorship etc. but I have to tell you we (I mean the capitalist West now) have censorship as well. The actual mechanism may be different, it's more informal, but the results are even worse (w.r.t. maintaining the status quo).

All in all, the general quality of publications were much higher back in those days. Also education was much-much better. Those commies surely didn't profess the Orwellian slogan "ignorance is strength". (BTW neither the other two slogans.) Nowadays I'm not sure. The dumbing down of education, and more generally, the dumbing down of public debate and public speech are well observable facts. Ignorant people are easy to misled. All in all, I feel that people in power don't really mind that stupidity has gained some ground. It sounds a bit conspiratorial but I think this is more like a kinda unintentional process governed by the convergence of common interests in the ruling class (yep, a Marxist term, capitalism has made me reassert and value those commie things I hated those days).

And we have real conspiracies as well. There are actors who are actually interested (financially and otherwise) in spreading bullshit. The financing behind the climate denial movement is well known. Etc. This well organized bullshiting is not new but the factors described above help it tremendously. You have to bear in mind that climate deniers have actually and effectively won the public "debate". People now start to feel the very early effects of climate change and they are kinda waking up. Scientists have been warning us for more than 30 years, and we have effectively done _nothing_, and what we've done was the worst possible (like solar and EV).

Huh, this got quite long and controversial...

David Appell said...

Balázs, thanks. Yeah, I don't think I've ever said it, but you're right, climate deniers *have* won the debate -- the world hasn't done anything about climate change. Nothing. Global emissions may be flattening out -- we'll see. In the US any CO2 reductions are due to fracking, not intentionally decreasing fossil fuel use.

So you think a significant portion of what's going on now is actors intentionally spreading bullshit, and people in power not minding that educational standards are dropping, public standards of debate are dropping, stupidity is gaining ground. Do I have that right?

Gosh this will lead to a real kind of dystopia. Not the nuclear apocalypse we see in the movies, but some lesser, depressing civilization where anyone who cares, anyone smart, will be left in a daze.