Tuesday, May 06, 2025

50 Years at 0.30°C/decade

The 50-year linear trend for the Hadley Central England Temperature (HadCET) is a very healthy worrisome 0.30°C/decade.


Without including any autocorrelation, because I don't feel like calculating it today, the 2-sigma uncertainty is 0.07°C/decade.

Over 50 years that's an increase of 1.52°C (2.73°F).

Also, the 10-year moving average reached a record high in April at 10.7°C. (That's an absolute number, not an anomaly.) 


HadCET is measured over a fairly broad area of...central England...bounded by an approximate triangle from Lancaster in the north of England to Bristol in the southwest to London in the southeast. Former homes of such famous people as Gollum (well, actor Andy Serkis), Blackbeard the Pirate and Charles the Darwin, son of Robert, a wealthy society doctor and financier, and grandson of Erasmus the Darwin, a (inhale) "natural philosopher, physiologist, slave-trade abolitionist, inventor, freemason, and poet" (exhale). 

Via Wikipedia.

2 comments:

Entropic man said...

Healthy in the statistical sense, but not for the inhabitants. They are seeing increased flood and storm risks and a string of new maximum temperature records.

David Appell said...

Of course, not "healthy" in the human sense. I should have used "robust."