The Bugs Are Coming

I saw two articles in the last few days about bugs appearing where they have never been before, due to, at least in part, climate change:

• a women who says she hasn't recently been off Long Island in the US somehow acquired the viral disease chikungunya (NY Times, free article), "the first such case of local transmission ever recorded in New York."
• it's been confirmed that a mosquito has been in Iceland, the first.

Of course these could be one-offs. But it's the kind of thing scientists have talked about for decades. We'll see....

PS: Yes I used the word "bug" to describe a virus. Colloquial usage.

Chinese vs US Wind

Paul Krugman: "In his rambling speech at the United Nations, Donald Trump insisted that China isn’t making use of wind power: 'They use coal, they use gas, they use almost anything, but they don’t like wind.' I don’t know where Trump gets his misinformation — maybe the same sources telling him that Portland is in flames. But here’s the reality:" (link)

Krugman also gives this chart, regarding the US:

Grok says the average US home uses 1,232 watts of electricity, so the above projection change of about 40 GW is enough electricity for over 32 million homes! That's about 24% (!!) of Grok's estimated 134.3 M occupied households in the US in 2030. 

One-quarter of US homes.

I didn't realize Trump was fowling things up THIS badly....

Shelley's "The Cloud"

From the dedication page of Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey, 2nd edition (2006) by Wallace and Hobbs, dedicated to co-author Peter V. Hobbs.

2025 Will Likely be Third-Warmest Year

The last three years of monthly temperatures, via Copernicus. 

This year should easily be the third-warmest year in their record (which goes back to 1940; not sure how they got their 1850-1900 baseline). But probably no higher, even though this September saw a significant increase from August. 

The 2025 year-to-date average is 1.46°C relative to 1850-1900, so just below 1.5°C. September was 1.47°C. If the last three months of the year average 1.613̅ °C higher, the yearly average will be above 1.5°C. (That quasi-bar above the 3 means it's a repeating number ad infinitum; the exact number is 121/75.)

For comparison, 2023 averaged 1.48°C and 2024 averaged 1.60°C. Another year above 1.5°C would definitely be newsworthy, especially as 2025 has basically been ENSO-neutral. And then it would be the second-warmest year.  

PS: GISS and NOAA won't be updating their monthly numbers due to the US government shutdown. Not sure if they will even be allowed after Trump's anti-climate change orders. Same for PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume. NSIDC sea ice extent & area numbers did arrive for September shortly after October started.

the UK (for now)

Antarctica Sea Ice Width is Decreasing

Of course it is. I recently heard that it had drawn 100 km closer to shore. Maybe it was 80 km. I thought I'd try to estimate that.

I'll assume Antarctica is a perfect circle, as well as the sea ice. So the sea ice is an annulus with width w, the distance between its outer and inner radii. Then it's real easy to calculate w of the sea ice from its area (not extent), 13.72 Mkm², and the average radius (R) of Antarctica, =sqrt(A_ant/pi):

where "si" is sea ice. Using average annual area, this gives the following graph:

I spent a lot of time trying to make a pretty graph on datawrapper.de, but it was too complicated to get exactly what I want. So this will have to do.

In 2023 it looked like the average width had shrunk by about 75 km, but by 2024, while perhaps an anomaly, reduced that to 50-60 km. Still good enough for approximate work.

HadCET At a Record

Just a short note: the year-to-date HadCET average monthly temperature (Hadley Central England Temperature (data)), is at a record high through September, tied with 2022. 

There's also a tie for second third place, between 2023 and 2024.  

In other words, the four warmest HadCET year-to-date averages, through Septembers, have been the last four years.

The record is now 367 years long.

That's really quite remarkable.

PS: The 50-year linear trend of HadCET is 0.32°C/decade. Also, the 10-year moving average is at a record high.