This year should easily be the third-warmest year in their record (which goes back to 1940; not sure how they got their 1850-1900 baseline). But probably no higher, even though this September saw a significant increase from August.
The 2025 year-to-date average is 1.46°C relative to 1850-1900, so just below 1.5°C. September was 1.47°C. If the last three months of the year average 1.613̅ °C higher, the yearly average will be above 1.5°C. (That quasi-bar above the 3 means it's a repeating number ad infinitum; the exact number is 121/75.)
For comparison, 2023 averaged 1.48°C and 2024 averaged 1.60°C. Another year above 1.5°C would definitely be newsworthy, especially as 2025 has basically been ENSO-neutral. And then it would be the second-warmest year.
PS: GISS and NOAA won't be updating their monthly numbers due to the US government shutdown. Not sure if they will even be allowed after Trump's anti-climate change orders. Same for PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume. NSIDC sea ice extent & area numbers did arrive for September shortly after October started.
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