NASA and NOAA just announced their December temperature anomalies. For NASA GISS, the 2014 anomaly was +0.68°C, which beats the old record of 2010 of +0.66°C.
These numbers have uncertainties -- GISS tells me they're estimated to be ±0.05°C (which I think means 2-sigma). Then doing the same calculation I did for the Hadley Central England Temperature, the probability 2014 is warmer than 2010 is 66%.
Update 8:17 am - Here's a chart from the NOAA/NASA press conference, with their probabilities, less even than my estimate (those are "~"s in the chart, not negative signs):
A time series from NOAA: