Friday, January 16, 2015

Probability 2014 is Warmest Year = 66%

NASA and NOAA just announced their December temperature anomalies. For NASA GISS, the 2014 anomaly was +0.68°C, which beats the old record of 2010 of +0.66°C.

These numbers have uncertainties -- GISS tells me they're estimated to be ±0.05°C (which I think means 2-sigma). Then doing the same calculation I did for the Hadley Central England Temperature, the probability 2014 is warmer than 2010 is 66%.

Update 8:17 am - Here's a chart from the NOAA/NASA press conference, with their probabilities, less even than my estimate (those are "~"s in the chart, not negative signs):

A time series from NOAA:

1 comment:

David Sanger said...

So summing the top five most likely years according to NOAA gives a 90% chance one of them is the hottest.

And of all the years, the chance that 2014 was the hottest is considerably greater (>2x) than the chance that the second most likely year 2010 was the hottest instead.

+0.69 ± 0.09 can run both ways. The anomaly could be as high as +0.78