These numbers have uncertainties -- GISS tells me they're estimated to be ±0.05°C (which I think means 2-sigma). Then doing the same calculation I did for the Hadley Central England Temperature, the probability 2014 is warmer than 2010 is 66%.
Update 8:17 am - Here's a chart from the NOAA/NASA press conference, with their probabilities, less even than my estimate (those are "~"s in the chart, not negative signs):
A time series from NOAA:
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So summing the top five most likely years according to NOAA gives a 90% chance one of them is the hottest.
And of all the years, the chance that 2014 was the hottest is considerably greater (>2x) than the chance that the second most likely year 2010 was the hottest instead.
+0.69 ± 0.09 can run both ways. The anomaly could be as high as +0.78
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