Saturday, February 11, 2017

Yes, Salem, Oregon is Warming

Over a year and a half ago, there was a comment on a post of mine, "Why Very Warm Events are Exponentially More Probable in a Warmer World," about temperatures in Salem, Oregon, where I live, by Mark Albright of UW.

He gave this graph to show that temperatures in Salem, Oregon were in fact decreasing:
However, this graph is for the annual mean of the daily maximum temperatures. I can reproduce this trend from these data via Mark's site.


However, what if we look at the daily average temperature, defined as the average of Tmax and Tmin for the day? The result is quite different, with a positive trend:


The trend, since the record started in 1928, up until 2014, is +0.07 C/decade. Over the 30 years 1984-2014 the trend is +0.23 C/decade, easily positive and very worrisome. (It's equal to 0.41 F/decade.)

Anthropogenic global warming increases nightly minima more than it does daily maxima. So just looking at the trend in daily maxima can be misleading. Better to look at the trend in the daily average.

(note 2/13: corrected the label on the last graph.)

33 comments:

Norman said...

David

I was looking at your last graph. This would be the annual average temperature (I think you still have it labeled as maximum).

On your graph I notice that you include the very warm 2015 dot. If you removed this anomaly what would your trend be?

The last few years of Salem, Oregon temperatures have been influenced by the warm blob.
It started in 2013 and persisted into 2016 and is now gone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)

The heating you are seeing may be the result of the warm blob. Which might have caused the warmer temperatures in the past.

David Appell said...

Hi Norman.

Thanks for catching my mislabel. I fixed it.

Using the daily average temperatures for Salem, averaged over each year, the trend is positive for any time interval, except from 22 years ago to today, when it's zero.

Yes, The Blob may be having some influence on Pacific NW temperatures. But The Blob could well be influenced from global warming. And/or, as the Wikipedia article says, it may be due to a flip of the PDO.

Norman said...

David

I am now thinking the Climate Science community may have gotten the fundamentals wrong. I know you will not accept my point but I will attempt anyway.

I have been trying to locate the source of physics that would make the claim that a 3.7 W/m^2 energy increase could heat the surface by 1 or more C.

I found this article:
http://www.brleader.com/news/images/Mysterious%20negative%20feedback.pdf

I see how they derived the value but it is for a 254 K surface. This equation and logic would not work for a 288 K surface. Since Stefan-Boltzmann is the fourth power of surface temperature, the warmer something gets the more energy it takes to maintain that temperature because it will radiate at an increasingly elevated level.

I think my criticism is fair game and the more I look into it the more it seems that in some early research they made this error and are just continuing to repeat it with each new paper not reflecting upon the initial flaw. An equation can be completely logical and work but if the initial assumption is wrong or mistaken the equation does not reflect reality.

David Appell said...

What do you think they got wrong, using a 254 K surface instead of a 288 K surface?

You realize, I hope, that this no-feedback CO2 sensitivity isn't observable -- it can't be measured, because feedbacks exist in the real world so you can't measure something in a world without feedbacks.

So this number is more just a what-if theory. It's like the calculation for T in sigma*T^4 = (1-alpha)S/4. Everyone uses today's value for the albedo, 0.3, but in a world with no greenhouse effect alpha would likely be higher, since 255 K = -18 C is below freezing and there'd be a lot more ice.

So these numbers are only heuristic values, not anything that applies to the real world. And they can't ever be measured. So it doesn't really matter what surface temperature they used.

It's silly (IMO) to hunt for something very basic like this that climate science has gotten wrong all along. Tens of thousands of very smart scientists have been looking at all this for over 100 years. Trivial mistakes were weeded out long, long ago.

David Appell said...

Norman, this post explains how to calculate the 1.0 C. It's much simpler than I thought.

https://judithcurry.com/2010/12/11/co2-no-feedback-sensitivity/

Norman said...

David Appell

From you Judith Curry link.

"Jeff, the 1C value for a forcing of 3.7 W/m^2 (the canonical value for doubled CO2 based on radiative transfer equations and spectroscopic data) is derived by differentiating the Stefan -Boltzmann equation that equates flux (F) to a constant (sigma) x the fourth power of temperature. We get dF/dT = 4 sigma T^3, and by inversion, dT/dF = 1/(4sigmaT^3). Substituting 3.7 for dF and 255 K for Earth’s radiating temperature, and assuming a linear lapse rate, dT becomes almost exactly 1 deg C. In fact, however, the models almost uniformly yield a slightly different value of about 1.2 C, based on variations that occur with latitude and season."

If you put in the value of 255 you do get very close to 1. But if you put in the Earth's surface temperature at 288 you get only 0.68 (which is what I had calculated).

If the Earth's surface were currently 255 K you could raise its temperature 1 K with 3.7 W/m^2 addition. You simply cannot do this with 3.7 W/m^2 addition to a 288 K surface.

I think somehow they calculate that the 1 K increase will take place in the Tropopause and then works its way down to the surface and increase the surface by 1 K. Convective energy is shown not to warm the surface at all but the overall effect is cooling. I think this is a flawed reasoning.

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"If you put in the value of 255 you do get very close to 1. But if you put in the Earth's surface temperature at 288 you get only 0.68 (which is what I had calculated)."

Yeah, I get that value too (0.68 C for 288 K).

But so what? As I said, and as Curry said, this is not a measurable number, and it's just the calculation of a toy model.

Nothing in any climate model depends on this value.

Norman said...

David

Judith Curry feels much as I do. Are you certain that 10,000 scientists have been working on this? I have only seen a few papers coming up with this and then the rest just use the original paper as a reference for their own paper.

The surface heating has nothing to do with the energy that is leaving the Earth system. It is only based upon how much energy it is gaining and losing... that is what determines the surface temperature and the air temperature above. The amount of energy entering the TOA and leaving the TOA can only let you know their is an imbalance, it will not tell you where this extra energy is found (could be ocean, upper atmosphere etc...it does not have to be at the surface.

The surface temperature is based upon the energy in vs energy out. You have know radiative fluxes in and out and then you have the other energy losses (evaporation and thermals both cool the surface).

I do not know if you saw this argument on Roy Spencer but the radiative downwelling IR is around 340 W/m^2. It raises the surface by 33 C. That means you need about 10 W/m^2 to raise the surface by 1 C. 3.7 W/m^2 added to the downwelling flux will get you around 0.3 or 0.4 C. This is exaclty what Roy Spencer's temperature graphs show. GISS shows much more warming than this.

Why is it impossible for you to believe that scientists can be corrupted for money and livliehood? If Obama wanted climate change to be a big agenda to grow the power of government he could direct money to people who would produce results favorable to his disires. I look at Tony Heller's site and he does show jus such tampering with many examples. He was even given time to tesitify in a Congressional hearing. I can't say for certain there is corruption, and that is not a point I am trying to prove with you. I am only trying to determine why you can't conceive of this possiblitly. Thanks.

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"I think somehow they calculate that the 1 K increase will take place in the Tropopause and then works its way down to the surface and increase the surface by 1 K. Convective energy is shown not to warm the surface at all but the overall effect is cooling. I think this is a flawed reasoning."

It's just a toy model!

It's not intended to be exact!

It's just a demonstration. Nothing in any climate model that projects AGW depends on this number. It's simply heuristic, just like the sigma*T^4 = (1-alpha)S/4 models is heuristic.

That's what science is -- making better and better models.

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"I have only seen a few papers coming up with this and then the rest just use the original paper as a reference for their own paper."

What original paper?

I'd be surprised in many papers noted this result. It belongs in a classroom, and all scientists thoroughly understand it and its limitations and its nonapplicability.

David Appell said...

Norman says:
"Why is it impossible for you to believe that scientists can be corrupted for money and livliehood?"

Norman, can you be corrupted for money and livelihood?


Norman said...

David

I haven't had to be at this time since corruption is not necessary where I work. Not sure if I had to feed my kids and the only path available was corruption for money I would not take that over starving children.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_the_United_States

This link shows some corruption discovered in Government. This list only includes people who were caught and charged.

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"I haven't had to be at this time since corruption is not necessary where I work."

So you're an honest man, but everyone else is suspect. Right?

Norman said...

David Appell

This link shows a very strong correlation between dustiness levels and Antarctic temperature. The authors believe dusty ice was what warmed the ice sheets and that could very well have been. But on the other hand it could also show that intense dustiness in the air so reduced solar incoming radiant energy that caused the Antarctic to become quite cold at peak of dusty air. Just depends on how you look at the data.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987116300305

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_the_United_States"

Now I'm confused. Since you're an American, you're corrupt because Wikipedia says so?

David Appell said...

Norman, yes, I know about dust.

But I'm more interested in why you think you're the only honest person in America.

Norman said...

David Appell

Tom Curtis on Skeptical Science has this point to offer:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=7&p=11#120582

With this graph embedded in his post:
https://static.skepticalscience.com/pics/HansenSato2011Fig2.png

This article points out strong dust storms can decrease the total energy to the surface by around 40 W/m^2
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~qfu/Publications/acp.huang.2009.pdf

Tom Curtis graph does not include the potential cooling by intense global dust storms. If you add 40 W/m^2 to his 6.5 you get a 46.5 W/m^2 potential energy difference. Now if you divide 5.1 by this value your climate sensitivity drops considerably from his 3/4 C/(W/m^2) to O.11 C/(W/m^2). So an increase of 3.7 W/m^2 would warm the Earth by 0.407 C which again is what Roy Spencer's research is showing.

I keep seeing flaws in the science. I am not sure if Climate Scientists are the cream of the crop in the field of science. Have you looked at the course requirements to be a climate scientist? I think you had to take a much more rigorous class schedule to get your PhD in theoretical physics.

Norman said...

David Appell

You say you are interested in why I think I am the only honest person in America. Hmmm.. I am curious in how you would logically reach such a conclusion from the content of my posts.

I would not even try to guess at the number of corrupt or honest people in America. As I stated above, my point was NOT to say that climate scientists are corrupt, it was more to question why you think they could not be corrupted. This is not saying they are or are not, it is questioning why you think it is not possible. Very different point than what you are making I would think.

David Appell said...

Norman, does this mean you accept the lack of importance of the 1 deg C value for a bare (no feedbacks) radiative forcing of 3.7 W/m2?

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"As I stated above, my point was NOT to say that climate scientists are corrupt, it was more to question why you think they could not be corrupted. This is not saying they are or are not, it is questioning why you think it is not possible."

Trump can't even keep leaks out of his inner circle. Do you really think 10,000 or so scientists all around the world, from all different countries, are together colluding on climate science to say that, no, 3.7 W/m2 only gives 1 deg C of warming?

Norman, do you realize how absurd that sounds?

Do you know any scientists, Norman? I've kinda gotten the impression that you work for a technical group, maybe CERES, doing programming or software maintenance or IT or some such. Yes?

Scientists are, and always have been, extremely skeptical, of absolutely everything. They like thinking they're the smartest, and want to tear down everyone. And often they do. The history of science is replete with feuds.

But when science knows something, it knows it. It's known CO2 is a heat trapping gas for 150 years.

The thought that all these people are keeping quiet about some grand conspiracy is absurd, and frankly, extremely insulting, coming from people like you.

If there really WAS a conspiracy, and all of them just wanted the research money to keep flowing, they'd keep saying how UNCERTAIN they are of the science, and more research is needed to reduce that uncertainty.

Instead they've been saying, all along, that they're more and more sure of the human influence on climate, and on the prospects.

So your ugly insinuation isn't even logical.

You aren't the only honest man in America, Norman.

Norman said...

David Appell

I read through your series of comments on science and scientists.

I do not work for CERES or program. I took numerous classes in computer programming at Metro Tech but never finished a degree in it (second child born and it was time consuming).

No disagreement that Carbon Dioxide "traps" heat but I would think it is more likely it emits IR in all directions based upon its temperature not so much "trapping"...I think that term is what causes many to reject the science.

I also would not think many people would be involved in a direct conspiracy. Only a few top leaders. You know that Roy's graphs are produced by a very small group of people. I do not know how many actual people are involved in producing the final product of GISS global tempeartatures. I would strongly doubt 10,000. More likely many people are working on parts of the project but the actual final graphs need be produced by a few select individuals.

Your one point "If there really WAS a conspiracy, and all of them just wanted the research money to keep flowing, they'd keep saying how UNCERTAIN they are of the science, and more research is needed to reduce that uncertainty."

That is a different tangent and one possible thought but not the one I am making. My suggestion is not that the top climate scientists want more money flowing on research projects. My approach would be you have an Administration that wants to strengthen government and enlarge it you need public support for such a growth to take place. You can find people who agree with you and support them. They provide evidence to suggest a vast and growing threat to mankind that can only be stopped by a large and powerful government and that citizens must also give up freedom to eliminate the threat. A select few GISS scientists decrease warming in the past and increase current warming a bit and the overall effect is a warming of over 1 C while Roy's graphs only show modest warming. One is a threat the other not so much.

Whereas the Progressives are using Climate as the enemy to battle, the Republicans have selected scary ISIS terrorists to accomplish the same goals. Both expensive battles that require giving up freedoms to accomplish and the Government grows in power and might.

Why would by insinuation be illogical or ugly? I also have taken psychology classes and a drive for power and control is a very strong and overwhelming drive in some humans, they will go to great lengths to increase power and control and will use whatever method they feel will help them achieve this.

Norman said...

David Appell

You asked "Norman, does this mean you accept the lack of importance of the 1 deg C value for a bare (no feedbacks) radiative forcing of 3.7 W/m2?

My post above this one would be with feedbacks included.

I was wondering, if climate scientists are so complete and thorough, why do they only include the positive feedback from increase in water vapor without also considering the negative feedback of evaporative cooling to get the increased water vapor in the atmosphere? I have looked at numerous articles on this and have not seen one that talks about the surface cooling from the increased evaporation. I was looking for some data so I could calculate it myself but have not yet found enough to compute. My question is why is this obvious condition not discussed or included in the determination of the radiative increase?

David Appell said...

Norman says:
"No disagreement that Carbon Dioxide "traps" heat but I would think it is more likely it emits IR in all directions based upon its temperature not so much "trapping"..."

Yes, that's true.

And half of those random directions have a downward component. And the emissions that strike the ground come from very low, less than a meter in altitude.

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"I also would not think many people would be involved in a direct conspiracy. Only a few top leaders."

And these few leaders are telling all their staff to alter their data and pretend there is a different conclusion.

That is just fucking stupid, dimwitted and ridiculous.

David Appell said...

Norman said:
"My post above this one would be with feedbacks included."

So Norman, does this mean you accept the lack of importance/relevance of the 1 deg C value for a bare (no feedbacks) radiative forcing of 3.7 W/m2?

David Appell said...

Norman wrote:
"I was wondering, if climate scientists are so complete and thorough, why do they only include the positive feedback from increase in water vapor without also considering the negative feedback of evaporative cooling to get the increased water vapor in the atmosphere? I have looked at numerous articles on this and have not seen one that talks about the surface cooling from the increased evaporation."

Because, Norman, as you've shown over and over again in the last few months, you don't understand the science, so you get everything wrong.

Scientists aren't stupid. They know to include evaporation.

Here is a description of a famous model, NCAR CAM, v5. Be sure to read section 4.5, "Evaporation of convective precipitation." Also read the many other paragraphs about evaporation. Hurry, the modelers are very anxious to receive your input and save climate science.

"Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)," NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN–464+STR, June 2004.
http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/atm-cam/docs/description/description.pdf



JoeT said...

David, using the Stefan Boltzmann equation to calculate the no feedback climate sensitivity is a good back-of-the-envelope estimate provided you include the emissivity in the equation. That is, if you stood outside the Earth, which has a surface temperature of 288K and measured the outgoing radiation it would be around 240 w/m2. Setting the emissivity to 1 doesn't work simply because the Earth is not a perfect blackbody emitter. One can see that in Figure 3 of the Physics Today article by Pierrehumbert. If you include the finite emissivity effect then you find epsilon ~ 0.62. In fact I recently wrote this on your blog here. Then, for a forcing of 3.7 w/m2 you get delta_T ~ 1.1.

One more thing --- water vapor evaporation and condensation is clearly understood and incorporated into climate models. On the simplest level, the greenhouse effect is due to the lapse rate. If there were no lapse rate, no GE. Fundamentally, the lapse rate comes from gravity and the compressibility of air. What water vapor does is that it decreases the lapse rate because energy is transported from the surface to the atmosphere. In this sense, it acts as a negative feedback.

Norman said...

David Appell

Please open your mind. Have you paid any attention to news over the years?

You state: "And these few leaders are telling all their staff to alter their data and pretend there is a different conclusion.

That is just fucking stupid, dimwitted and ridiculous."

No the leaders are not telling their staff to alter the data, they are doing it. The staff is collecting data. The top people run it through programs that alter the outcome (look at Tony Heller's site he does give numerous examples). Only need a few corrupt people.

Now for you emotional outburst that is really unfounded and seems to lack an understanding of how conspiracies work and can be effective for several years.

Have you heard about Enron?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal

The vast numbers of employees at Enron were not aware or participating in the corruption of the upper leaders.

Bernie Madoff?
Ford Motor Company and Pinto?
Your favorite: Tobacco companies (do you think all the farmers growing tobacco were aware of the manipulation of the company heads?)
Recently VW. Do you think all the people assembling VW cars were aware of the deceit of the few people that changed the emission outcomes?

There are many other examples if these are not enough for you.

I really do not understand you perception of reality. Seems very limited and isolated. If you cannot conceive of a potential for corruption in science or any other area you are a very limited thinker and probably that is why you must react so emotionally. Become aware of the real world you live in. Power and money can corrupt many and have already.

Norman said...

Joe T

Not sure I am understanding where you get your information from. The emissivity of the Earth is nearly 1 I believe the figure is about 0.95. Look at page 307 of this link.

file:///C:/Users/Norm/Downloads/Land_surface.pdf

JoeT said...

Norman

I'm not sure what part of what I wrote was unclear. The mean temperature of the Earth's surface is 288K. Now move to the TOA and look down. If the surface + atmosphere were a perfect blackbody you'd expect to measure 390 w/m2 at the TOA. You don't, rather you measure 240 w/m2. Furthermore, as in the Pierrehumbert paper I linked to, the measured emission spectrum is clearly not blackbody. That tells you that the emissivity is around 0.62. Perhaps you're thinking I was talking about the emissivity at the surface. I'm wasn't. The rest follows simply to show that 1.1C is the no-feedback response to a doubling of CO2.

A word of advice. When you link to a file that starts C:/Users/Norm/Downloads, this is on your own personal computer. Lucky for you, no one actually has access to your computer via the internet (well, perhaps some do but I don't)

David Appell said...

Norman, again you present absolutely no evidence of any corruption, nor has the highly uncredible Tony Heller.

For some reason you don't like the AGW conclusion of science, which you clearly do not understand. But you can't prove it's wrong scientifically, so you take a coward's way out and allege, with no evidence whatsoever, conspiracy and fraud.

Seems very limited and isolated.

Norman said...

David Appell

You are using strongman and attempting to silence my thoughts since you do not accept them.

You claim: "For some reason you don't like the AGW conclusion of science, which you clearly do not understand. But you can't prove it's wrong scientifically,."

What part of the science to I clearly not understand? I am attempting to prove it is a flawed hypothesis and I have shown you much evidence which you will ignore and not look at. Your claim is untrue that I have "no evidence whatsover".

When you reject all items that challenge your strong belief how can I even hope to prove anything to you. I have linked you to CERES radiation graphs (which you reject without looking at). I have linked you to more than one paper discussing climate sensitivity which you reject.

Please do not make false claims that I do not have evidence. You reject it but that does not mean I am not supplying it.

Why is Tony Heller research so uncredible? Your own opinion? He presents data that was accepted by NOAA in the past but has now been changed where previous temperatures are lowered and current temperatures have increased (over previous graphs made by the same agency). Tony Heller testified at a Congressional Committee with his research. With no evidence to support your claim (which you falsly accuse me of doing) you state he is highly uncredible. Why? Your opinion of his research is not evidence. It is quite the opposite.

Norman said...

Joe T

Thank you for the advice on my link. I will be more careful in the future.

I know you are wrong with your claim that "On the simplest level, the greenhouse effect is due to the lapse rate. If there were no lapse rate, no GE."

I do not know from what material you were able to come to that conclusion but it is not correct thinking at all.

If you had an atmosphere that had no convection (no lapse rate) isothermal. The atmosphere at the same equilibrium temperature from the top to bottom. You still have a GHE.

If you have 240 W/m^2 entering the Earth system then equilibrium will be reached when 240 W/m^2 leave the system.

Follow the logic. The Earth's surface receives 240 W/m^2 reaches a temperature of 255 K. The surface radiates to the atmosphere (which is somehow kept from convection for the sake of this point to show you that lapse rate is not a fundamental need for GHE). It radiates 240 W/m^2 into an atmosphere with GHG and this IR is absorbed and the atmosphere begins to warm. It will warm until it reaches an equilibrium temperature where it is radiating away at 240 W/m^2. But the atmospheric emission goes both ways,toward the surface and away. Now you have 240 leaving to space and 240 returning to Earth's surface. Atmopshere is emitting a the rate of 480 W/m^2 so surface will increase in temperature until it emitting 480 W/m^2.
The surface receives 480 W/m^2 (240 from solar and 240 from atmospheric IR).

This radiation calculates to a surface temperature of 303 K or close to 30 C.

If you had no evaporation or thermals (convection) a dry planet with GHG your surface would become much hotter.

With the current global energy budget they have 503 W/m^2 reaching the Earth's surface. The Earth is cooled by evaporation so it does not get so hot and thermals. The Lapse rate may actually keep the surface cooler by moving a lot of energy into the atmosphere

If you did not have the convective lapse rate and only allowed conduction I think the surface would be much warmer than it is now.