Friday, September 20, 2019

Arctic SIE Minimum: 2nd Lowest

Now it's clear that this year's minimum of Arctic sea ice extent will be the 2nd-lowest in the satellite era, after 2012. But still nothing close to 2012's storm-aided plunge.

There's no real competition either from above or from below, according to both JAXA v2 and NSIDC v3 datasets.

To-date 2019's average SIE is on track to be second lowest to, not 2012, but to 2016.

That is, even though 2012 has so far had the lowest daily minimum, it hasn't had the lowest annual daily average. That seems significant. It's not at all impossible that 2019 won't break that number.

My projected annual daily average for 2019 is currently 0.09 Mkm2 above 2016's annual daily average, or +0.9%. With about 1/3rd of the year to go.


Dano said...

Would be interesting to graph the rightward drift of the date of the yearly minimum (e.g. 'since 1985 the date of the minimum extent has shifted from Sept 13 to Sept 19').



David Appell said...

Dano, for you: