Thursday, April 19, 2012

And You Think *YOU* Have Climate Problems

A new paper in the International Journal of Climatology by Mansour Almazrou et al analyzes climate trends in Saudi Arabia, and puts the "warm" in global warming.

To set the stage, the dryest parts of Saudi Arabia get only 40-80 mm/yr of rainfall. The "wettest" regions are considered those that get more than 150 mm/yr. Average annual temperatures are at least 24°C, and are 27°C in the warmest region.

So, over the last half of the two-decade period 1978-2008, researchers found that rainfall there is decreasing at 47.8 mm/decade.

The maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures are increasing at rates of 0.71, 0.60, and 0.48°C/decade, respectively.

Saudi Arabia may be rich enough for at least some of its citizens to tolerate such changes. But its southernmost region is still at 16°N. (To set the scale, Miami is just as little less than 26°N.) To northerners like most of us, 0.2°C/decade might not sound like much of a problem. But I wonder about those even near the equator.
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For non-metric readers, here are the English numbers:

The dryest parts of Saudi Arabia get only 1.6-3.1 inches/yr of rainfall. The "wettest" regions are considered those that get more than 5.9 in/yr. Average annual temperatures are at least 75°F, and are 81°F in the warmest region.

Over the last half of the two-decade period 1978-2008, researchers found that rainfall there is decreasing at 1.9 in/decade.

The maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures are increasing at rates of 1.3, 1.1, and 0.9°F/decade, respectively.

Saudi Arabia may be rich enough for at least some of its citizens to tolerate such changes. But its southernmost region is still at 16°N. (To set the scale, Miami is just as little less than 26°N.) To northerners like most of us, 0.4°F/decade might not sound like much of a problem. But I wonder about those even near the equator.

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