No Pause in Global Temperature

Trying to diagnose a "pause" using a graph of rates of temperature change really isn't useful, I realize now. Duh!! Here's a better chart of just global temperature, from GISS. Doesn't show much of a pause. 

June Temperatures

For June, GISS has the globe at 2nd-warmest, same for land-only and Northern Hemisphere, and 4th-warmest (but tightly packed) for the Southern- hemisphere.

Relative to the first 30-year interval possible, 1880-1909, June's global anomaly was 1.44°C. The total change is approximately 1.23°C (2.21°F). Land-only is 1.56°C. The respective 30-year trends are +0.25°C/decade for the globe, and +0.30°C/decade for land-only.

A degree Celsius of global warming every four decades, at this rate. That's astonishing. That means we'd hit 1.5°C of total global warming in 2.4 more years, relative to the first interval available. (Remember, trends are independent of the choice of baseline.) Less if you use a trend of just the last 10 years. Probably less because the warming rate is accelerating:

The error bars are the 95% confidence limit.

Unless an asteroid hits us (*or a comet, or the sun falters, or aliens put up a sunscreen to get rid of us, or there's global nuclear war, you know what I mean), we're hitting 1.5°C of warming in just a few years. 

There should be a global funeral, organized by someone at the right time.

So linear regression is probably losing some of its efficacy. You could also say that the 30-yr trend from the period ~1969 to ~1992 is larger than that from ~1992-today, so the global warming trend is slowing down. "The pause" still makes it difficult to reach decadal changes. 

The 30-yr warming rate from ~1992 to ~2016 was (according to the graph above) about constant which does not say that warming paused, it just didn't accelerate. Since then the linear trend has increased, which is an acceleration of warming. The linear trend of global temperatures since Jan 2016 is +0.32°C/decade, but since the beginning of 2017 it's +0.43°C/decade. Error bars on each are 0.10°C/decade.

Foster and Rahmstorf wrote a paper earlier this year saying global warming has accelerated. (It's open access.) They are much more careful about how they do fits (lowess instead of regression) and obtain this:

PLF=piecewise linear function. You can read the paper if you're ambitious. (Today is a Friday so you're probably not. Me neither, and in any case I have other work to do.) 

Cheers.

 

Warren Zevon When Younger

Late last year I posted about Warren Zevon's last appearance on the David Letterman show, on October 30, 2002. He died 11 months later at the age of 56. On that video he looks rather tired and resigned, but I just found a performance of his from 1982. He's 20 years younger and, of course, much more animated and vivacious. I never saw anything like this before. He was about 36 yrs old.

World Cup & Football/Soccer in the US

I watched three of the last few World Cups games: England vs Norway, Spain vs France and England vs Argentina, and was going to write about them and why I think soccer/football is unlikely to ever catch on in the US. Then I realized I know very little about this sport and, moreover, I don't care what the average American thinks of the game, or of anything really, I mean, they re-elected Trump. So I decided to just shut the f up.

The Last Ever Climate Science Report

Short But Moving

NYT: "In April, the energy think tank Ember found that all of the new electricity demand around the world in 2025 was met with green power." 

The whole interview ("The Very Good and Very Bad News on Climate," with Bill McKibben) is worth reading. Free link.

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China's population peaked in 2021 and has declined every year since. In 2025 it was 5.8 million lower than the peak year, or -0.4%.

On the other hand (assuming I have two hands, which I do), India's population has increased every year, by 0.9% each of the last three years. India's population was 1.464 B in 2025, compared to China's 1.407 B that year. The difference is 57 M.  

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In the US, coal mining jobs in June 26 were 39.3 K. That's a change of -1.2 K since Trump2 took office. During Trump1 the change was -12.6 K, and during Biden the change was +2.3 K. 

I feel kind of bad for coal miners, who all three times supported Trump. I guess for them it's jobs but also guns & Jesus. I guess that explains why they voted for a guy again even though jobs were down 25% during his first term. It wasn't entirely the pandemic; coal mining jobs were down 5.9 K in March 2021, -12% from when Trump's first term began.

Someone should be designing & implementing a huge job training program for coal miners because these jobs are going, boys, and they ain't coming back. You know, like what Hillary proposed. But she got slammed in her 2016 presidential campaign for wording it wrong, saying "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business," during a March 2016 CNN town hall in Columbus, Ohio. It might have cost her the election. 

Short but moving:

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Various Bullet Points

I was wrong on this post from 2 days ago: the El Niño is already here. NOAA called it on June 11.

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Capitalism at its most rapacious: a women was kicked off a plane for someone who paid more for her seat. Happened in the US, of course.

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The January 2025 fires in Los Angeles burned an area equivalent to a square 9.5 miles on a side. 51 deaths, 18,000 homes and other structures destroyed. Journalists could start calling these events "heat bombs," the deaths from very extreme heat. 

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The Athletic:

The city of Buenos Aires, it found, had a disproportionately high number of therapists; 222 of them per 100,000 people. The United States, in comparison, had 30.

When you watch Argentina play, you can understand why. After every game, you need to talk to someone. You have to share what you’ve been through. “Am I losing my mind? Is this normal? How do I cope?”

One minute, you’re on the floor. Down and depressed. The next, you’re in heaven. Euphoric. The adrenaline. The dopamine. It’s a natural psychedelic. It’s no surprise Argentinians follow their national team everywhere. This is more than patriotism. It’s an addiction. Everyone tells you it’s not healthy. You know you should stop. But nothing has made you feel this way before, and you crave that feeling again and again and again.

The feeling hit hard in Atlanta on Tuesday.

The European Heat Bomb

CarbonBrief says the recent European heat bomb killed 2,700 people in France. 

Maybe that's what these extreme events need to be called: "heat bombs."

They write, "Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe."

France needs to start thinking about air conditioning units, at least for its older people. Yes, I know A/C makes climate change worse, a little. But there's no sign global warming is slowing down, in fact it's accelerating right now, so people gotta do what they gotta do. 

No, I do not have air conditioning. I really don't like it. Had to use it when I lived in Arizona, but I don't like the feeling of being cloistered in the house. It's the same as cabin fever in the winter. Here in Oregon there are only a few days when it would be nice to have, but at those times I get by with a fan and a few showers a day. But if I were in an apartment building or a French house built in, maybe, 1582, I'd probably use it.

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The recent heat wave in Europe also killed an estimated 2.5 to 3 million chickens (New York Times).

“It broke my heart,” said Ms. Renaudier, who had been raising the birds at her family farm in northwestern France for supermarkets, butchers and rotisseries.

The birds were 19 days away from slaughter. But apparently that doesn't break her heart. 

I kind of get it, though. Watching any animal die of excessive heat must be difficult But I kind of don't get it. Yes, I eat chicken, so a few of these deaths are on me.  

The US Men's Soccer Team Deserved to Lose to Belgium

Belgium 4, USA 1. FT. 

Plain and simple, the US Men's National Team deserved to lose this game. Trump ruins everything he touches, and I don't see how this doesn't lower FIFA's reputation, if they had any left. I know they have a long history of corruption, but this seems so overt, so obsequious, so subservient, so direct, they look like nothing but toads kissing Trump's ass.

The US player who got the red card last game, Folarin Balogun (who said after that game that he accepted it was fair), should have sat out against Belgium. The coach should have ordered it. The team captain should have encouraged it. If the US had won today it would only have gotten worse. 

Kudos to Belgium for bringing it in the face of this moral outrage. That has to feel fantastic. 

Trump is a such a global embarrassment. Perhaps he actually is the anti-Christ. Can you think of a better candidate?

The Coming El Niño Keeps Getting Warmer

3.9°C! That would be utterly amazing. If I recall correctly, past El Niños have had a NINO3.4 anomaly of 2-2.5°C.

July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.

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— Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com) July 6, 2026 at 8:24 AM

12 Groups, Nearly Identical Temperature Records

From Zeke Hausfather on Bluesky:

The global surface temperature record is one of the most iconic figures in climate science. We now have 12 different groups of researchers from the US, UK, EU, Japan, and China (among others) that have calculated it and found nearly identical results:

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— Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com) July 6, 2026 at 3:08 PM

More of "Not" by Big Thief

Here's another version of "Not" by Big Thief, sung in a studio. Even more desperate than the first. She's missing a tooth and something seems to propel her even farther. How many people are looking to be an artist & rock star despite a missing tooth, which in America is supposed to be humiliating? Don't think I could do that.

Kurt Vonnegut on Kurt Vonnegut

link.

Big Thief: Not

So desperate


Lyrics--most of them.