Why I Love Rainy Days (Apparently)

Oregon's rainy season--it's really rainy season--is coming up in November and December. It's the only part of winter here I enjoy anymore. (Yes, I realize technically it's autumn. But it feels like winter.) I used to love nor'easters in New England. (Like today's.)

I'm already missing summer.

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Weird Eddington Quotes

Arthur Eddington, physicist and mathematician, wrote:

“The physical world is entirely abstract and without actuality apart from its linkage to consciousness”

He also wrote:

“It is difficult for the matter-of-fact physicist to accept the view that the substratum of everything is of mental character. But no one can deny that mind is the first and most direct thing in our experience, and all else is remote inference.”

Both of these are in his book The Nature of the Physical World, published in 1928. 

Eddington made his name in astronomy and especially by traipsing off to Príncipe in 1919 to attempt to measure the bending of light around the sun predicted by Einstein's theory of general relativity. The island is inside the underarm of Africa, and the eclipse occurred on May 29th. At only 1.5° N of the equator it was probably miserable at the time, especially wearing the heaps of clothing expected of English men back then. Eddington said he had confirmed Einstein's prediction, which made Einstein famous. I once read that Eddington cherry picked his data, but Wikipedia says 

The results were argued by some to have been plagued by systematic error and possibly confirmation bias, although modern reanalysis of the dataset suggests that Eddington's analysis was accurate.

Maybe he just got lucky or had a sixth sense for his experiment. Maybe he knew what he was doing.

Anyway, back to these quotes. Eddington didn't accomplish much in the field of physics or the new quantum mechanics, as far as I know, but he did have a few crazy ideas. He claimed the number of hydrogen atoms in the universe was exactly 136*2²⁵⁶, approximately 1.57e79.

The "136" looks suspicious.... Eddington claimed the fine structure constant α was 1/136, which was about the value being measured back then. But better measurements found it to be a little less than 1/137, so Eddington cooked up a way to find one more degree of freedom, thus 136+1=137. For this he was ridiculed and some people started calling him "Arthur Adding-one," and the episode detracted from his scientific credibility.

 
So back to these quotes, made as the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics were being established by Born and Heisenberg and Pauli and a bunch of guys at Göttingen in Germany. Eddington must have been impressed with QM and it triggered his curiosity but didn't get into the meat of it so played around at the [far] edges. 

Anyway, back to the quotes. They seem influenced by QM, but they're really quite astonishing and, well, kooky for any actual scientist to say. Nothing was known about consciousness back then, just as nothing about it is known today. To say that there is no external world and it all springs from consciousness is way, way, way out there, too soon even for science fiction, which was then sending goofy rockets to be planted into the lunar surface and there were canals on Mars built by Martians (first described in 1877). Eddington said it all depends on "mental character." 

Eddington took the red pill. He believed that consciousness could not be explained by physics. (Then by what?) I knew about the eclipse of course, and his adding one to 136 to get 137, but I never knew he was this far out there. He was probably a fascinating guy to have a conversation with, in front of a large fireplace with port and cigars, and I suspect he had even weirder ideas than he wrote about. He would certainly be worth a time travel trip, when they finally figure out time travel and built the necessary infrastructure. I don't know, depends on the cost. If Einstein would be there at the same time, I'd pay a lot for that ticket. Just might stay, too.

Big Fossil Fuel Ad Money for the New York Times

A big dilemma:

#NotACoincidence

[image or embed]

— Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) September 5, 2026 at 8:25 AM

Looks like the NYT takes in about $500 M/yr in advertising money. So about 4% comes from fossil fuels. If the loaded salary of an employee is $200,000, the FF money pays for a hundred of them. Or, as they have 163 M shares outstanding, that's 12 cents more dividend per share. Their annual dividend is $0.92 per share per year, they could raise it by about 13%. 

Or have an amazing annual Hanukkah party.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Only 10th Lowest

NSIDC says that the Arctic's sea ice extent minimum has been reached for the year, 4.60 million square kilometers on Sept 12th. That's about the area of the European Union, and only tenth lowest since satellite records began back in November 1978. 

"This year’s minimum is yet another low extent in a changed Arctic," said senior scientist Walt Meier. "While this year’s minimum is in line with recent years, it is far lower than anything we saw in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.”

Here's a quick reminder of what "extent" means versus "area":

Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice. Extent is the total region with at least 15 percent sea ice cover. NSIDC usually reports extent, which gives higher values than area.

And the Antarctic has likely reached its maximum for the winter down there:

In the Antarctic, sea ice extent has been tracking near record low levels for most of this growth season, most likely reaching its maximum extent on September 14 at 17.59 million square kilometers (6.79 million square miles). If this maximum date holds, this will be the third lowest Antarctic sea ice maximum on record. 

Here's NSIDC's own story and an animation for the Arctic. Here's an image I asked Perplexity AI to generate: "an image of vanishing sea ice."

Image by Perplexity AI

About the Equal-Area Map Debate

Surprising (to me):

Kluth says of the Mercator map, "Greenland is especially exaggerated: It appears to be 14 times larger than all of Africa, when in fact, it is smaller than Algeria.

How a bogus map exposes 'one reason for Trump's obsession with Greenland,' Alternet, 11-Sept-2026

Data centers in Oregon use 71% of electricity of households

There are 111 data centers in the state of Oregon, as of 2025, consuming 14 TW-hr of electricity last year. That's an hour power consumption of 1.6 GW. It's equal to 71% of household use of electricity. 

32 more data centers are planned.

That's a lot of AI slop. Maybe a few more unproven conjectures in mathematics. More ridiculous crap from Trump. 

Via KPTV.com

https://youtu.be/dezHhFjj16A?si=x4ph7vVA-BbqG_zc

It's not clear if dolphins or humans have the better lives

The End of "American Exceptionalism"

Here's an op-ed in today's New York Times, by Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Free link.

We are in a worldwide battle for hearts and minds. The future of republican government in the United States, and globally, hangs in the balance. As Mr. Trump oversteps executive authority, weaponizes the Justice Department and tries to cow the media, private sector and universities, the citizens of China, Iran, Russia and other autocracies are watching America’s democratic beacon flicker. The stumbling of the American experiment, alongside the favoritism Washington is showering on far-right parties worldwide (even in a Germany haunted by its Nazi past), is blurring the ideals that long inspired repressed peoples to strain for the dignity and autonomy that only representative government can provide.

The United States is squandering its ability to bend the arc of history toward more freedom.

If Vance is elected president in 2028, I don't think he's capable of stopping this decline. He doesn't exactly seem the sharpest tool in the national shed.

-=-=-

IMO, "American exceptionalism" was always a stupid and thoughtless claim. There has always been plenty wrong with this country, and there is even more now--much more. I don't feel like getting too far into it--there's our racism, homophobia, now transphobia, antipathy to unions, antipathy to universal health care, militarism, foreign meddling, unregulated or self-regulated capitalism, the Second Amendment, "money is speech," the electoral college, and on and on. I can't imagine what this country will be in 20 years.  

Feynman's Heart-breaking Letter to His Deceased Wife

This is a letter the physicist Richard Feynman wrote to his wife 17 months after she passed. 

Feynman was a young physicist at Los Alamos, New Mexico during the Manhattan Project to build the atomic bomb. He was a junior scientist put in charge of the calculating division, the "human calculators" doing all the arithmetic that needed done, especially complicated integrals. 

(Sothebys confirms)

A little about his marriage, from Wikipedia:

One of the conditions of Feynman's scholarship to Princeton was that he could not be married; nevertheless, he continued to see his high school sweetheart, Arline Greenbaum, and was determined to marry her once he had been awarded his PhD despite the knowledge that she was seriously ill with tuberculosis. This was an incurable disease at the time, and she was not expected to live more than two years. On June 29, 1942, they took the ferry to Staten Island, where they were married in the city office. The ceremony was attended by neither family nor friends and was witnessed by a pair of strangers. Feynman could kiss Arline only on the cheek. After the ceremony he took her to Deborah Hospital, where he visited her on weekends.

Oppenheimer recruited Feynman for Los Alamos. He was there by late March 1943.

Oppenheimer recruited many young physicists, including Feynman, whom he telephoned long distance from Chicago to inform that he had found a Presbyterian sanatorium in Albuquerque, New Mexico for Arline. They were among the first to depart for New Mexico, leaving on a train on March 28, 1943. The railroad supplied Arline with a wheelchair, and Feynman paid extra for a private room for her. There they spent their wedding anniversary.

Feynman visited his wife in Albuquerque every weekend. Even today it's a two-hour drive from Los Alamos to Albuquerque. Back then, when the roads weren't nearly as good, especially from Los Alamos to Santa Fe, it must have taken him several hours to travel to see his wife. 

She died in June 1945. 

The Trinity test at White Sands, New Mexico was July 16, 1945, and of course the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945.

[BTW, I once met and talked with the guy who set off the Trinity bomb--Joseph McKibben, who was in charge of the detonation electronics. Another time.]

Talk about a love story!! Feynman couldn't have been more devoted to his sweetheart and wife, despite all the difficulties and turmoil in both their lives at the time. 

Here's a picture of them:

As I was writing this I thought, wow, this would make a great screenplay, but then I though I had once seen such a movie, and sure enough there is one, from 1996:

But Matthew Broderick as Richard Feynman? Eh.

Sagan

"If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe."

– Carl Sagan

Via: "Why Boltzmann Brains are Bad," Sean Carroll 2017. 

Indonesian Keyboard Player

I'm a little obsessed with this clip:

Posts from the interestingasfuck
community on Reddit

President of the Dunning-Kruger Club

Global temperatures: NOAA found August to be the warmest August in their records (which start in 1850), as they did for -July among Julys. August was the 6th warmest month that NOAA ever recorded. Also the warmest ever meteorological summer (June-August). 

2026 has a chance to be the warmest year in their records, especially with the El Nino here already: it would need a Sept-Dec average of 1.44°C, when the year-to-date average has been 1.16°C and the 12-month moving average is at 1.14°C. July's anomaly was 1.20°C, and August was 1.32°C. I suspect someone like Berkeley Eart has estimated the chances.

The record year is 2024, at 1.26 C above their 1901-2000 baseline period. Relative to their first three decades, 1850-1879, 2024's anomaly was 1.39°C, while this year's average-to-date is 1.30°C.

-=-=-

Wall Street Journal (no paywall):

Spain is getting cooked. 

-=-=-

US summer heat shatters record.

Western Europe did too.

-=-=-

NY Times: "In an Age of Perpetual Climate Disaster, Rebuilding Is the Wrong Goal" (free)

Rebuilding could unfold over decades, too: new infrastructure, new patterns of development, perhaps new evacuation routes and emergency-response units. When truly scarring cataclysms struck, survivors built whole new worlds in their wake. This work was difficult even in stable circumstances. But increasingly, weather extremes are arriving not only as crises but premonitions, with future disasters following now within a generation, often within years, and sometimes, unnervingly, within months.

“Nobody really knows what real recovery looks like,” says Juliette Kayyem, a former assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security under Barack Obama and now a disaster-management scholar at Harvard’s Kennedy School. “But the whole apparatus was built on the assumption that disasters were random and rare and that recovery was one and done.”

This, she says, is the original sin of recovery — that we don’t recognize what the disaster itself is telling us. A true thousand-year flood doesn’t reveal much about what new resilience must be built over the next decade, since you only expect to see something like it again 10 centuries from now. That it might come again before the next census or town council election is such an unnerving prospect that we resist it almost magnetically, preferring to believe our suffering was freakish and improbable. And in the immediate aftermath of disaster, public attention and collective ambition are pulled perversely backward, toward restoration, as much as pushed forward, toward adaptation.

I'm sure AI will be able to solve it, one way or the other.

-=-=-

NYT again: "Why States Are Cutting Back on Their Climate Goals: Ambitious aims have given way to political anxiety over prices as many states’ 2030 emissions targets appear increasingly out of reach." (free)

After President Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement during his first term, many Democratic-led states passed their own laws to curtail carbon emissions.

But most states that set goals for 2030 are not on track to meet them. Now, with voters worried about inflation, and with the war in Iran raising energy prices, some states have begun to cut back or abandon those goals instead.

-=-=- 

With news like this, and all the talk of an AI apocalypse, I'm finding it difficult not to be discouraged. I don't like the idea of just throwing my hands up in frustration, but what can I do about any of this? Inflation, wars in Iran and Ukraine, dumb tariffs with once-friendly countries, the ever increasing cost of health insurance and health care, "E.P.A. Erases Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants"...all caused or made worse by the bozo in the White House, who gave advice today on AI: Don't worry, be happy. 

Only a low IQ person could think Trump is a high IQ person. President Dunning–Kruger. The only think Trump is qualified for is to be president of the Dunning-Kruger Club. Honestly. So many problems now cry for wise, intelligent, smart leaders, and we get someone too dumb to know how dumb he is. His paranoid narcissism could ruin us all. What is an educated, decent person supposed to do? Seriously, WHAT? 

Some of Today's News

Wow, lots of news today.

• An AI formalized the proof of the famous Fermat's Last Theorem in 13-million lines of code. 
• The same AI, Claude, but in the hands of different people, found that a long-standing question about the Navier-Stokes equation (fluids) has an answer: it does break down in a certain domain.
• Almost half of world’s farmers are poisoned by pesticides every year. This is no way to run a civilization.
• Americans do not get to know where their meat comes from.
• Surprise, surprise: New Yorkers were misled by government officials about how bad their air was after the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center buildings. 

More From Sebastian Junger's "Tribe"

This is from the Introduction to Tribe. It's about a time Junger was threadbare and hitchhiking in Wyoming, and a homeless-looking man came up to him and insisted he [Junger] accept a lunch box.

The lunch box contained a bologna sandwich, an apple, and a bag of potato chips. The food had probably come from a local church. I had no choice but to take it. I thanked him and put the food in my pack for later and wished him luck. Then he turned and made his way back down the on-ramp toward Gillette.

I thought about that man for the rest of my trip. I thought about him for the rest of my life. He'd been generous, yes, but lots of people are generous; what made him different was the fact that he'd taken responsibility for me. He'd spotted me from town and walked half a mile out a highway to make sure I was okay. Robert Frost famously wrote that home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in. The word "tribe" is far harder to define, but a start might be the people you feel compelled to share the last of your food with. For reasons I'll never know, the man in Gillette decided to treat me like a member of his tribe.

This book is about why that sentiment is such a rare and precious thing in modern society, and how the lack of it has affected us all. It's about what we can learn from tribal societies about loyalty and belonging and the eternal human quest for meaning. It's about why — for many people — war feels better than peace and hardship can turn out to be a great blessing and disasters are sometimes remembered more fondly than weddings or tropical vacations. Humans don't mind hardship, in fact they thrive on it; what they mind is not feeling necessary. Modern society has perfected the art of making people not feel necessary. It's time for that to end.

US Voted No on New UN Equal Area Map

The US was the only country to vote no on this equal area map, which Africans rightly consider the map to more just in showing the continent's true size.

The US often votes no on seemingly obvious issues, like a UN resolution affirming that access to food is a fundamental human right. 180 countries voted in favor. Only the US and Israel voted no.

The UN identified "the right to safe and clean drinking water and sanitation as a human right that is essential for the full enjoyment of life and all human rights." The US abstained from voting.

The US is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC). In fact they are now saying they will try to dismantle it.

And on and on. The US has, over the decades, very often voted against what seems to clearly be in the best interest of the world and also of Americans. It's embarrassing and infuriating.

The United Nations General Assembly voted to adopt a new world map that reflects countries’ true relative sizes, after African nations urged the UN to right a centuries-old wrong.

[image or embed]

— CNN (@cnn.com) 8:01 PM · Sep 4, 2026

A Wild Analogy

Quantum mechanics has revealed the probabilistic nature of fundamental particles, while Einstein's general relativity describes how the fabric of spacetime is warped by mass and energy to produce gravity. As a result, we have semiconductors and GPS.

Yet unifying these incredibly successful but separate theories into a single 'Theory of Everything' may be modern physics' greatest challenge (like unifying oil and vinegar into tasty dressing using mustard).

from: Wild experiment reveals quantum objects do obey gravity, Ivan Farkas, ScienceAlert, 4 Sept 2026.

"Tribe" by Sebastian Junger

King George III of England caused the English colonies in America to rebel by trying to tax them without allowing them a voice in government. In this sense, democratic revolutions are just a formalized version of the sort of group action that coalition of senior males have used throughout the ages to confront greed and abuse. Thomas Paine, one of the principal architects of American democracy, wrote a formal pronunciation of civilization in a tract called Agrarian Justice: “Whether…civilization has most promoted or most injured the general happiness of man is a question that may be strongly contested,” he wrote in 1795. "[Both] the most affluent and the most miserable of the human race are to be found in the countries that are called civilized."

I got this from Tribe, Sebastian Junger's latest 2016 book. It's short but very good. Junger's thesis is that modern society, maybe just modern US society but I don't think so, has gotten so far removed from tribal life & community that it's no wonder so many people, perhaps mostly men, feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. In tribal life, such as the indigenous people in North American, everyone had a purpose. First, men needed to defend the tribe and they knew this was a primary responsibility of each one of them. They also had to hunt and gather and bring food back for the tribe (and not just to their own family). Men felt necessary and needed and a vital piece of their tribe/community. Women had children to replenish the tribe and prepare food for the tribe (again, not just their own family). Everyone lived in a definite community, they all knew each other, they'd grown up together and learned together and fought together and suffered together. There was also a great deal of equality and egalitarianism in their societies. Anyone who tried to get on top would be torn down by the others, as referenced in the quote up top. He writes about the thousands of white people who choose to live with the "Indians," after being abducted or choosing it on their own. Some would be rescued and rush right back to live with their tribe. There were almost no cases of Indians defecting to the other side. 

Another example Junger gives is the Bosnian war. Junger went into Sarajevo and lived amongst the people as Serbs bombed the hell out of the town from the surrounding hills. Very quickly, collections of apartment buildings would come together to share food, commiserate together and take care of one another. Teens huddled amongst themselves in deep underground bunkers and lived with one another, ate together, and laughed and loved together. No one was kept outside the group. He quotes more than one person whom he interviewed 20 years later who called wartime madness but also the best times of their lives. Even a happy time for some. They were in their own tribe and had people to take care of, talk to, be scared with and celebrate with. 

I can admit that both of these are likely simplifications. 

I'm about halfway through the book and am just starting to get into a section about modern warfare and the experiences of the soldiers. Many also recall it as some of their best days. (For example, the WW2 veterans who get together even now to see their buddies and tell their stories, stories they've maybe never shared with anyone else.) Junger cites many scientific studies that show veteran suicide and PTSD are more complex issues and do not appear randomly.

I can't wait to read the second half of this book. I can identify with it in that I also feel adrift and alienated and depressed and unmotivated. I work remotely by myself, and although I live in a suburb I essentially live remotely. I got a taste of what Junger is talking about when I spent five months on the Appalachian Trail in 1996. (I didn't finish the Trail, only hiking 1500 miles because I partially tore two ligaments (I learned later) 500 miles in.) Even though I didn't complete the hike, it was some of the most memorable times of my life, because I had a definite goal, I was motivated, and, believe it or not, there was a tight linear trail community where everyone comes together because we were all suffering and learning together. Many other thru-hikers (who completed the entire 2100-mile trail) would and do say exactly the same thing, even if they can't quite express it. I wish I had anything like that kind of commitment and community today.

JD Vance and the Insanity of His Religion

This guy wants to have his finger on the nuclear button!!

Will Alberta Leave Canada?

This was a stupid post and I regret writing and posting it. I don't know much about it and I don't know what I was thinking. Apologies.

Will Alberta leave Canada? It's fossil fuels vs emissions cutbacks. Conservatives vs Liberals. Extraction vs conservation. Pipelines vs climate action. Cowboy hats vs toques. But Alberta has no coastline. Support for independence is only 25% to 33%. Ballot question 10 on October 19th will ask if the government should begin the process of preparing for a second, legally binding vote on separatism. Could Alberta be appeased if those in Ottawa allow a pipeline to the coast of British Columbia, carrying about 1 million barrels a day. (About 1% of global oil consumption; lots of carbon dioxide when burned, ~400,000 t CO2 per day.) Weird situation. Canada is a leader in per capita carbon emissions--hey man, it gets cold up there--but will give up on strong emissions from Alberta. The environment rarely wins.

In general I'm in favor of separatist movements. Smaller governments are better than larger governments, I believe. The only time I've ever talked to a state representative was when I wrote to one in New Hampshire about an obscure topic. He called me and we talked for an hour. But then, New Hampshire has the largest state legislature in the country with 400 members, about 1 representative for every 3200 citizens. I think that's a good ratio. I'd like to see the US divided up too. Why is liberal Oregon held hostage to the demands of red southern states with their very conservative, unreasonable policies? I think it's inevitable the US cracks up further down the timeline of our obvious decline. 

In the Pacific Northwest here there's talk about a country called Cascadia, but it's only manned, as far as I can tell, by political kooks and malcontents. Well meaning, but a little out there. Nothing that could possibly gain political traction. 

So I kind of hope Alberta secedes. (I guess. It's really none of my business.) Then maybe Quebec. Then maybe Texas. Then maybe Cascadia.

The Great Atom Debate

Did you know Ernst Mach was anti-atom? I didn't. He disputed their existence, and he and Ludwig Boltzmann argued about it for the rest of their lives.  

My good friend Paul Halpern, whom I knew well in graduate school and stay in touch with, has a book coming out: The Great Atom Debate, about this very disagreement. Paul is a wonderful and successful science writer and this is his 18th book, I believe. Here's a site to learn more about the book, and to pre-order it on several sites. Here's its Amazon site. It comes out in December. 

Mourning Dove

Did you know that it's "mourning dove" and not "morning dove?" I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know this until now, but happy that I learned. It makes a difference.

Thanks to Bob Dylan and his lyrics.

When I was a little kid I asked my mother who Richard Stands was. She said, who? I said, you know, like in the Pledge of Allegiance, "...and to the Republic for Richard Stands...." 

4% of Oregon has burned this year so far. Also, Trump is evil.

In making a comment here I did a little calculation: 2.3 million acres of Oregon have burned so far this year, as of about a week ago. 

That's 3.4% of the state!

It's one-third the area of Belgium.

It's already a record here, beating the last record in 2024. 

At the end of last month the Trump administration denied funding to fight two large wildfires in Oregon. (They did approve three others.) Why? Speculation is because he didn't win Oregon's electoral votes. How sociopathic is that? 

They/he also did it in California for last year's Los Angeles fires. 

There's heavy speculation it's because we didn't vote for him. 

"Trump denies disaster aid to four blue states, after approving aid to six red states."

For foreigners: blue states are states that did not vote for Trump in the 2024 election; red states did. (Reminder: in the US we vote by state. Whoever gets the most votes in a state gets all their electoral votes; votes are distributed by the electoral college and are proportional to population. 

They even admitted it in a legal brief:

White House admits it scrapped grants to blue states because they didn’t vote for Trump

Think about how sick this is. Literally, sociopathic, playing with people's lives and property.

It's utterly exhausting having a mentally ill president. 

Miscellaneous

 Chinese robot runs 100m sprint quicker than Usain Bolt’s world record | Sport | The Guardian. It also set a record in the men's half-marathon. Other humanoid robots in China set records in the standing high jump and running high jump.

Phoenix Arizona is forecasted to have the next several days with a high temperature of  +115°F (46°C). The US government just mandated they take a 21% cut in water from the Colorado River, along with Nevada and Colorado. There just isn't enough water in the river these days. 

Trump made 1,051 trades in his stock & bond portfolio in just June alone. Supposedly someone is managing his portfolio while he's in office. Supposedly.

"Paramedics Now Rolling Up to Medical Emergencies in Flying Hovercraft." Northern California. With applications like this and especially the delivery drones from Amazon, Walmart etc it's going to add to noise pollution nearly everywhere. Ugg. 

7.6 billion people will be able to see the asteroid Apophis when it passes by Earth at an altitude of only 20,000 miles (32,000 km). April 13, 2029. (A Friday, believe it or not. Friday the 13th.) It's 340 m long (1,120 ft). NASA now says there is zero chance it hits Earth. Will be viewable "across Australia, Asia, Africa, Europe, and eastern South America" for up to seven hours. Sorry North America. ESA: 

“Scientists believe that an asteroid as large as Apophis only comes this close to Earth once every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” the ESA added in a Twitter/X post.

Climate Denial Killing Still More People

New York Times, today: "In One Week During Europe’s Record Heat Wave, Deaths Increased by 16,000." (Should be a free article, or you might need to first get a free NY Times account.)

There are all excess deaths, not just those from heat. So the spikes in excess deaths in November to January are due to respiratory illnesses such as the flu. There were 25,000 heat deaths earlier there this summer, so this makes 41,000 at least. Over 30,000 in India. (I wrote a recent Phys.org article about India.) 

NYT: "Most of the deaths were in northern countries — France, Belgium and Germany — that are not accustomed to such high temperatures and struggled to respond."

France is debating ("bickering") air conditioning. It doesn't help that they love their old buildings built in the Little Ice Age. 

Of course, A/C doesn't stop wildfires. Future people may be stuck in air-conditioned houses and apartments wearing masks because of all the wildfire smoke, unable to buy home insurance since the insurance companies have left that market (as they are in Florida, partly due to rising hurricane costs).

It's too bad no one foresaw all these problems several decades ago--we might have taken actions to stall the problem. 

It's now clear that climate denial -- and climate deniers -- kill people. Lots of people. Where are the prosecutors?

Only 2 in 5 Americans Give a Sh!t about Climate Change

From CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten:

I mean, just look at these numbers. Okay, top issue in a midterm vote — you can list up to three issues. The economy, not surprisingly, comes in at number one at 54%. Immigration, 28%. Look at climate change — it’s tied for 14th, tied for 14th, all the way down here at 3%. Johnny, I’m not the greatest mathematician in the world, but I sure as heck know that 54% is a whole heck of a lot higher than 3%. So despite the climate being so warm in the month of July, the hottest month on record here in the United States of America, the voters, simply put, do not say that climate change is going to be an issue on which they vote in the midterm election.

And you can see this 3% here, and you can see in these slides right here: “Say climate change is a very big problem.” In 2016, it was 40%. It was 40%. Look where we are in 2026 — it’s 39%, it’s 39%. Now, Johnny B, you’re talking about change. Where the change we have seen is partisanship, right?<

And what we can see is Republicans, more so than anybody else, have been shifting away from the idea that climate change is a top issue for them. Take a look at this — the least important issue for Republicans, it’s just at 14% in terms of saying that climate change is a very big problem. So we’re seeing a large partisan split, but when it comes together, Democrats are going in one direction, Republicans are going in another direction. But when you put those two together, the bottom line is we’re only talking about two in five Americans, both now and 10 years ago, saying that climate change is a very big problem.

Maybe a few more towns burning down will convince them. Higher home insurance rates in Florida (if homeowners can get it at all). A few more records (this July was the warmest month ever recorded in the continental US). Or more thousands of deaths.

Relative to a 1951-1980 baseline, July's USA48 temperature anomaly is 1.81°C. Relative to 1901-2000 the anomaly is 2.34°C. [NOAA's USA48 data starts in 1895.]

This decade-to-date is 0.53°C warmer than the last decade-to-date. The 30-year linear trend is 0.31°C/decade (0.55°F/decade). The total (linear) warming since 1895 is 1.33°C (2.39°F).

Two El Niño Graphs

El Niño is early and strong, already with a Niño3.4 SST anomaly above 2.0°C. It's like on of those 6 ft 6 in (198 cm) kids in seventh grade--the high schol basketball coaches are keeping a very close eye on him as he casually scores 48 points a game in youth basketball.

University of Maine Climate Reanalyzer, Niño 3.4 region:

From the Copernicus Marine Service.

The Nino 3.4 region coordinates are: 5N-5S, 120W-170W.

Book Review about Howard Zinn

I found this video from an interesting book review in the NY Times about Howard Zinn, the famed historian and author of A People's History of the United States. Zinn dared to write that, actually, America's history is actually pretty fucked up, with a huge amount of oppression. In this messed up country that kind of inflammation will get you both prosecuted and respected. I read it many years ago but lately, as I'm now > 65 yo and supposedly on the US health program for seniors, Medicare, but still find it very difficult to get affordable health care. Trump plans to make medication for seniors even more expensive, despite his hypocritical lying saying he would always protect Medicare.  So I'm listening more than ever and am angry more than ever.

Just wish most people speaking in this vid weren't all actors and celebrities.

Yikes

Whispering Pines Golf Course, Texas, hole 15, par 3. May be the scariest par 3 I've ever seen.

Your worst fears about cultural collapse might be true

https://www.theguardian.com/wellness/2026/jul/29/sarah-wilson-book-interview

“In Sarah Wilson’s new book, one page is mostly blank. It’s intended as a reprieve, a neutral space “for you to stare at for a minute while your feelings catch up”.

“You will need it. In I Eat the Stars, Wilson argues that the world as we know it is in collapse – and that we are too late to avoid the worst.

“This is not just about the climate, but civilisation buckling under the weight of its own complexity. Given worsening inequality, political polarisation, falling fertility, resource shortages and global conflicts, Wilson argues that we are hurtling towards the same end as ancient Rome, the Mayan civilisation and every other sophisticated society before us.”

No Pause in Global Temperature

Trying to diagnose a "pause" using a graph of rates of temperature change really isn't useful, I realize now. Duh!! Here's a better chart of just global temperature, from GISS. Doesn't show much of a pause. 

June Temperatures

For June, GISS has the globe at 2nd-warmest, same for land-only and Northern Hemisphere, and 4th-warmest (but tightly packed) for the Southern- hemisphere.

Relative to the first 30-year interval possible, 1880-1909, June's global anomaly was 1.44°C. The total change is approximately 1.23°C (2.21°F). Land-only is 1.56°C. The respective 30-year trends are +0.25°C/decade for the globe, and +0.30°C/decade for land-only.

A degree Celsius of global warming every four decades, at this rate. That's astonishing. That means we'd hit 1.5°C of total global warming in 2.4 more years, relative to the first interval available. (Remember, trends are independent of the choice of baseline.) Less if you use a trend of just the last 10 years. Probably less because the warming rate is accelerating:

The error bars are the 95% confidence limit.

Unless an asteroid hits us (*or a comet, or the sun falters, or aliens put up a sunscreen to get rid of us, or there's global nuclear war, you know what I mean), we're hitting 1.5°C of warming in just a few years. 

There should be a global funeral, organized by someone at the right time.

So linear regression is probably losing some of its efficacy. You could also say that the 30-yr trend from the period ~1969 to ~1992 is larger than that from ~1992-today, so the global warming trend is slowing down. "The pause" still makes it difficult to reach decadal changes. 

The 30-yr warming rate from ~1992 to ~2016 was (according to the graph above) about constant which does not say that warming paused, it just didn't accelerate. Since then the linear trend has increased, which is an acceleration of warming. The linear trend of global temperatures since Jan 2016 is +0.32°C/decade, but since the beginning of 2017 it's +0.43°C/decade. Error bars on each are 0.10°C/decade.

Foster and Rahmstorf wrote a paper earlier this year saying global warming has accelerated. (It's open access.) They are much more careful about how they do fits (lowess instead of regression) and obtain this:

PLF=piecewise linear function. You can read the paper if you're ambitious. (Today is a Friday so you're probably not. Me neither, and in any case I have other work to do.) 

Cheers.

 

Warren Zevon When Younger

Late last year I posted about Warren Zevon's last appearance on the David Letterman show, on October 30, 2002. He died 11 months later at the age of 56. On that video he looks rather tired and resigned, but I just found a performance of his from 1982. He's 20 years younger and, of course, much more animated and vivacious. I never saw anything like this before. He was about 36 yrs old.

World Cup & Football/Soccer in the US

I watched three of the last few World Cups games: England vs Norway, Spain vs France and England vs Argentina, and was going to write about them and why I think soccer/football is unlikely to ever catch on in the US. Then I realized I know very little about this sport and, moreover, I don't care what the average American thinks of the game, or of anything really, I mean, they re-elected Trump. So I decided to just shut the f up.

The Last Ever Climate Science Report

Short But Moving

NYT: "In April, the energy think tank Ember found that all of the new electricity demand around the world in 2025 was met with green power." 

The whole interview ("The Very Good and Very Bad News on Climate," with Bill McKibben) is worth reading. Free link.

-=-

China's population peaked in 2021 and has declined every year since. In 2025 it was 5.8 million lower than the peak year, or -0.4%.

On the other hand (assuming I have two hands, which I do), India's population has increased every year, by 0.9% each of the last three years. India's population was 1.464 B in 2025, compared to China's 1.407 B that year. The difference is 57 M.  

-=-

In the US, coal mining jobs in June 26 were 39.3 K. That's a change of -1.2 K since Trump2 took office. During Trump1 the change was -12.6 K, and during Biden the change was +2.3 K. 

I feel kind of bad for coal miners, who all three times supported Trump. I guess for them it's jobs but also guns & Jesus. I guess that explains why they voted for a guy again even though jobs were down 25% during his first term. It wasn't entirely the pandemic; coal mining jobs were down 5.9 K in March 2021, -12% from when Trump's first term began.

Someone should be designing & implementing a huge job training program for coal miners because these jobs are going, boys, and they ain't coming back. You know, like what Hillary proposed. But she got slammed in her 2016 presidential campaign for wording it wrong, saying "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business," during a March 2016 CNN town hall in Columbus, Ohio. It might have cost her the election. 

Short but moving:

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Various Bullet Points

I was wrong on this post from 2 days ago: the El Niño is already here. NOAA called it on June 11.

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Capitalism at its most rapacious: a women was kicked off a plane for someone who paid more for her seat. Happened in the US, of course.

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The January 2025 fires in Los Angeles burned an area equivalent to a square 9.5 miles on a side. 51 deaths, 18,000 homes and other structures destroyed. Journalists could start calling these events "heat bombs," the deaths from very extreme heat. 

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The Athletic:

The city of Buenos Aires, it found, had a disproportionately high number of therapists; 222 of them per 100,000 people. The United States, in comparison, had 30.

When you watch Argentina play, you can understand why. After every game, you need to talk to someone. You have to share what you’ve been through. “Am I losing my mind? Is this normal? How do I cope?”

One minute, you’re on the floor. Down and depressed. The next, you’re in heaven. Euphoric. The adrenaline. The dopamine. It’s a natural psychedelic. It’s no surprise Argentinians follow their national team everywhere. This is more than patriotism. It’s an addiction. Everyone tells you it’s not healthy. You know you should stop. But nothing has made you feel this way before, and you crave that feeling again and again and again.

The feeling hit hard in Atlanta on Tuesday.

The European Heat Bomb

CarbonBrief says the recent European heat bomb killed 2,700 people in France. 

Maybe that's what these extreme events need to be called: "heat bombs."

They write, "Recent analysis by World Weather Attribution has already shown that human-caused climate change increased the frequency and intensity of the June heat wave across Europe."

France needs to start thinking about air conditioning units, at least for its older people. Yes, I know A/C makes climate change worse, a little. But there's no sign global warming is slowing down, in fact it's accelerating right now, so people gotta do what they gotta do. 

No, I do not have air conditioning. I really don't like it. Had to use it when I lived in Arizona, but I don't like the feeling of being cloistered in the house. It's the same as cabin fever in the winter. Here in Oregon there are only a few days when it would be nice to have, but at those times I get by with a fan and a few showers a day. But if I were in an apartment building or a French house built in, maybe, 1582, I'd probably use it.

-=-=-

The recent heat wave in Europe also killed an estimated 2.5 to 3 million chickens (New York Times).

“It broke my heart,” said Ms. Renaudier, who had been raising the birds at her family farm in northwestern France for supermarkets, butchers and rotisseries.

The birds were 19 days away from slaughter. But apparently that doesn't break her heart. 

I kind of get it, though. Watching any animal die of excessive heat must be difficult But I kind of don't get it. Yes, I eat chicken, so a few of these deaths are on me.  

The US Men's Soccer Team Deserved to Lose to Belgium

Belgium 4, USA 1. FT. 

Plain and simple, the US Men's National Team deserved to lose this game. Trump ruins everything he touches, and I don't see how this doesn't lower FIFA's reputation, if they had any left. I know they have a long history of corruption, but this seems so overt, so obsequious, so subservient, so direct, they look like nothing but toads kissing Trump's ass.

The US player who got the red card last game, Folarin Balogun (who said after that game that he accepted it was fair), should have sat out against Belgium. The coach should have ordered it. The team captain should have encouraged it. If the US had won today it would only have gotten worse. 

Kudos to Belgium for bringing it in the face of this moral outrage. That has to feel fantastic. 

Trump is a such a global embarrassment. Perhaps he actually is the anti-Christ. Can you think of a better candidate?

The Coming El Niño Keeps Getting Warmer

3.9°C! That would be utterly amazing. If I recall correctly, past El Niños have had a NINO3.4 anomaly of 2-2.5°C.

July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.

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— Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com) July 6, 2026 at 8:24 AM