Wednesday, June 15, 2011

We Will Not Be Entering Another Little Ice Age

All the skeptics are atwitter at the news that the Sun may (may) be entering another grand minimum, such as the Maunder Minimum which spawned the "Little Ice Age." They can barely contain their glee.

Don't worry--we will not be entering another LIA. Greenhouse gas warming easily swamps any expected decrease in total solar intensity.

This exact subject was studied by Feulner and Rahmstorf in 2009 and Song et al in 2010. Temperatures would decline, at most, by 0.3°C by 2100 from what they are projected to be otherwise (2-4.5°C higher than today).

And before you say "they're just models," note that both papers reproduce the cooling seen during the actual LIA.

( has a nice review.)

Besides, as Andrew Revkin reports, there is a lot of scientific skepticism about the claim of an upcoming grand minimum.

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