Updated El Nino Review & Forecast

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is out with their monthly climate review and ENSO forecast:

During June through early-July the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle or late portion of northern summer.

There is a wide spread in what models are now forecasting, with none higher than a Nino3.4 anomaly of 1.6°C. (The 1997 anomaly reached 2.9°C.)

Here's my update comparing the 1997-98 El Nino to this year's fledgling attempt at an El Nino. This year's Nino3.4 index is fading for now, but it's notable that temperatures this year have, El Nino or not, so far been signficantly ahead of 1997's (by an average of 0.25°C).



By the way, here are the different Nino regions of the Pacific ocean: