Thursday, February 26, 2015

Prediction of February's GISTEMP

What will NASA GISS give for February's global average surface temperature anomaly?

Despite all the frigid temperatures in the northeastern part of the U.S., it's going to be high. Because that region is only on order a percent of the globe or less, and elsewhere it's been average to quite warm.

How warm?

I've been following the University of Maine climate reanalyzer for several months, noting its daily temperaure anomaly for the globe, and comparing that to the GISS monthly anomaly numbers. There's a decent correlation (see graph).

As they say, click to expand
Based on this correlation, and the Reanalzer's daily numbers for February, my guess is that GISTEMP's anomaly for February will be +0.82°C.

We'll see.

If true, that would be the second-warmest February in GISS's records, after only 1998's +0.86°C. That was the peak of the warmth caused by 1997-98's El Nino, and temperatures declined from there, so the year was 0.07°C below 2014 {± uncertainties, error bars, statistics, probability, and all that.}

It really has been remarkable how quickly temperatures that once seemed extreme (1998) now seem routine.


m vivi said...
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russell kym horsell said...

Well done.

Official number .79 for the globe.

russell kym horsell said...

Well done

Official value .79 for the globe.