Sunday, February 23, 2020

Recent Papers

Some papers just out that look interesting:

"New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES," Norman G. Loeb et al, JGR, 18 February 2020.

This looks important -- it compares observed "top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)" and validates model results -- but it's only available as a Word document right now (it's not yet been typeset for the journal).


"Long‐term impacts of permafrost thaw on carbon storage in peatlands: deep losses offset by surficial accumulation," Liam Heffernan et al, JGR, 19 February 2020.

This also seems like an important paper. It says the carbon emitted from permafrost thaw is probably offset by carbon uptake by new moss growing on the thawed surface. More specifically, their result for 200 years of thaw spans zero:
"Our approach constrains the net carbon balance to be between uptake of 27.3 g C m‐2 yr‐1 and loss of 106.6 g C m‐2 yr‐1 over 200 years post‐thaw."

"Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene," Douglas S. Hamilton et al, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20 February 2020.

Fertilizing the ocean with iron, often discussed in geoengineering circles, seems to have little effect on the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and hence on global warming.

Here's a press release from MIT:


Last August a volcanic eruption in the Tonga Islands formed a 195 sq km pumice raft (75 sq miles), or (if square) 8-9 miles on a side!


"Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in China with human-induced climate change," Chao Li et al, Journal of Climate, 21 February 2020.

"Observation-constrained projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario indicate that, by the 2040s, almost every summer in China will be at least as hot as the hottest summer in the historical record, and by the 2060s, common summers (that occur once every 2 years) will be even 3.0 °C hotter than the historical record, pointing to potentially large increases in the likelihood of human heat stress and to a massive adaption challenge."

...though many people are now saying RCP 8.5 is too high for what the future holds. Still.

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